So why is Bernie slipping in polls?

[Red Knight]

I think the "machine" is a huge part of that. They trip over themselves whenever Hillary leads a poll to get the news out there. When it's Bernie they mention it more as an aside most of the time. They bring on DNC types constantly who are basically calling the race already. It's a steady chipping away at the enthusiasim of his supporters and it's very effective. Not every supporter goes on DU or other sites. Some just like him but when they're told it's hopeless again and again--that support may waver.

Bernie probably has hard steady support at around 30 percent or so--diehards who won't buy into the media show. And then there is probably another 15 percent that are more casual observors. And then a swing group of ten percent or so. The "machine" doesn't care about the "diehard" group. They're just told to sit down and shut up.

But they can move the other group.

Certainly Hillary has the AA vote and it doesn't matter if they agree with Bernie's ideas or not--they(the majority) appear solid for Clinton. I remember reading how they sat quietly while Bernie spoke in SC at a church. That's really a rejection of the candidate. I find it hard to believe they don't support his ideas. But it is what it is--they seem to have their minds made up for Hillary. If Bernie had resources and time he would be able to make more progress with the AA community. They know Clinton and have for years.

Bernie has to keep trying but it will be tough.

But the point again--is the "machine" which includes the establishment and the media are locked at the hip in a common goal to get Hillary the nomination and end this thing.

I expect after Super Tuesday Bernie will fall more into the "ignore" category and the narrative will really focus on Trump vs. Clinton.

But make no mistake--Bernie's diehards aren't going anywhere.

They are in a sense vaccinated against the "machine".

His ideas are bigger than any one candidate. It's a movement--and whether it happens now or later--it will happen. The democratic party will not survive without that wing of the party. It just doesn't know or understand that yet. So when Bernie supporters are told to sit down and shut up or to leave the party--it's a huuuuuuuge mistake.

The Washington bubble DNC types all think it's just a "messaging" problem.

They have no idea.

But they will.

[Bleacher Creature]

1. Because Clinton is the stronger candidate.

When in doubt, the simplest answer is usually right.

[Red Knight]

3. No.

Let's take all of her money and establishment support away.

Let's see how strong she is then.

Of course we'll never know that because too many voters in this party continue to vote for more of the same.

Not everyone agrees.

[Bleacher Creature]

30. The "money and establishment support" didn't just materialize out of nowhere.

She's spent 30 years cultivating relationships within the party, including by raising money for candidates and helping to build an infrastructure. Sanders hasn't done any of that - in fact, just the opposite.

She also has a much better grasp of the issues (whether you agree with her or not) and far more detailed policy proposals (again, whether you agree with them or not).

Is it really a shock that both money and endorsements have followed?

[TM99]

52. Thank you for proving the point.

For 30 years, the Clinton Machine has used power plays, intimidation, dirty money, and control to gain the establishment support.

The DLC assimilation is near complete. This election will determine the future of the Democratic Party and the lefts support or not thereof.

[Octafish]

11. CORRECTION: Clinton is the richest candidate.

That translates into ad buys and buys all sorts of influence.

[John Poet]

40. Maybe if we had more money,

we could buy a better candidate than this one.... or something...

[Nanjeanne]

42. Well if so - she will have no problem winning YUGE in the General Election without

many progressive's votes.

Good luck with that!

[randr]

2. Damn Math

[lunamagica]

4. The novelty is wearing off

[Red Knight]

7. Wrong.

It's not a novelty.

And that's why the Dems are in trouble. No comprehension of what "it" is.

[giftedgirl77]

8. The only one that seems to be in trouble right now is

the Independent Senator from VT.

[John Poet]

41. At least the FBI isn't on his tail.

[giftedgirl77]

49. Ooooh good one

[lunamagica]

13. Definition of novelty

Simple Definition of novelty

: the quality or state of being new, different, and interesting.

You are wrong

[Red Knight]

16. Bernie has been saying the same things for years

Maybe it's a novelty to you.

Many of us have been waiting for him.

[lunamagica]

20. His presidential campaign is new. You guys are the ones saying all the time that people

don't know him.

I thought it was pretty clear what I meant by novelty

[anotherproletariat]

27. You hit the nail on the head...at first glance Bernie's ideas seem great

And actually, most of them are great. But once examined practically, it is clear that most have no chance of being implemented. I agree that most of Hillary's ideas will suffer the same fate, but then we are left with two candidates who will likely not have the cooperation of congress, so that changes the equation. Who is the better statesman/woman? Who has better knowledge of foreign policy? Who has worked with both sides and has the larger network of people to try and get things accomplished given limited congressional support.

I am a college student, and about 90% of my friends immediately jumped on the Bernie bandwagon back in the fall. Slowly, he has lost at least half of those supporters...and not all to Hillary, but many to apathy. College students hear "free tuition" and their ears perk up, but then the specifics become clear and they look at the big picture. I will agree that my most idealistic friends are still strongly for Bernie, and I admire them for the optimism, but even they will agree that this may not be the right time for such a campaign to really take hold.

[lunamagica]

28. Thank you for your perspective. This must be why the youth vote has been disappointing so far

Apathy. How sad

I hope that the crucial SC pick will motivate them to at least, vote against Trump- or whoever the GOP candidate is.

[Arazi]

57. Well, actually it's true. They don't know him

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-sanders-black-voters-20160226-story.html

His hands caked in grime from his repair job, Walter Brown coughed out a laugh when asked for his thoughts about Bernie Sanders, whose insurgent presidential campaign has electrified liberals around the country.

“Who is Bernie Sanders?” he said while sitting on a bench during an afternoon break. Brown, 59, is already leaning toward Hillary Clinton and doesn’t plan to start researching other options.

“I don’t have time,” he said, gesturing toward the downtown building where he’s been working. “I’m here all day.”

Sanders’ effort to broaden his appeal beyond white progressives and young people has run into a roadblock here in the form of black working-class voters, who in interviews here this week repeatedly voiced their longtime loyalty to Clinton. Several echoed Brown’s point that they don’t have time to explore an alternative nor interest in learning about Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont who was practically unknown in South Carolina before launching his presidential bid.

[Cobalt Violet]

47. bingo.

They poop-poop Bernie and the issues he stands for at their own peril. Fact is they can't win the general without Bernie supporters.

[Armstead]

31. About 20 years of growing pressure in the lobster pot

Not a "novelty" at all

[Orsino]

5. Victories have a halo effect.

Sanders has been fighting his way uphill against a celebrity, and began too late for him ever to reach parity in name recognition.

[Armstead]

32. I think that's it -- Time

[revbones]

6. Compare the media coverage

On the few minutes that media is not covering Trump, you get fawning interviews for Clinton (Joe & Mika) and Chris Mathews literally attacking Bernie for 15 min straight.

People say Clinton has been "vetted" but no journalist is going to sit and yell over her for 15 min exclaiming that she can't do what she says she'll do.

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. First, Bernie's people got baited into focusing on his civil rights activism of the 1960's

It was a monumental error.

He appeared to be protesting too much (no pun intended) - but the inference is that he doesn't have much to say about civil rights since. It also devolved into bizarre attacks on the likes of John Lewis. The walloping in South Carolina is BECAUSE of rather than IN SPITE of Bernie's campaign and supporters going apoplectic about Bernie in Chicago, early 60's vintage. The flailing and embarrassingly opportunistic support of the BLM protester (nobody forgot the Sanders people's outraged response to BLM disruptions last fall), moreover, probably cost Bernie 5 more points of African American vote in South Carolina. It was a pitiable spectacle, obvious to all but the most bubble-blind Sandersians.

Second, the attacks on Clinton are backfiring badly. The fact is that most Democrats simply don't believe that Hillary is a Republican in disguise, or that she is corrupt, or any of the other ridiculous charges the Bernie people have been leveling non-stop. Even if they disagree on policy, they believe Clinton is a good, albeit moderate, Democrat. It's why the increasingly vitriolic attacks on her have not only fallen on deaf ears, but actually turned voters against the Sanders movement.

There is a clear shift in the polls. The Sanders people will, of course never admit that their own flawed rhetorical tactics may be to blame - but their signal inability to see other points of view as valid is probably Reason 3 for the shift. People like ardor in primaries, and like appeals to the traditional values of the Party. But they dislike fanaticism. There's a little too much of a whiff of it in the Sanders camp.

[lunamagica]

21. Great analysis.

[auntpurl]

25. Well-reasoned post.

[taught_me_patience]

33. Completely agree

and would like to add that voters also tend to gravitate away from "angry" campaigns. Over time, angry campaigns lose momentum because people prefer a more optimistic tone. There is a little too much us vs. them anger from the Bernie campaign.

[Armstead]

34. The lack of seeing other porints of vierw has been the Democrats problem for 25 years

Clinton and the establishment may get a Pyrrhic victory in the primary....But the long term consequences of the campaign they have been running and the rigging of the system do not bode well for the future.

[bettyellen]

38. that sums it up nicely!

[giftedgirl77]

50. There is a very angry bubble right in the middle of Sanders campaign

& it's pretty ugly.

[berni_mccoy]

10. Concerted effort by the MSM.

[Robbins]

12. I say this

with all the attacks on bernie supporters they are going to be in for rude awkening come november.if majority of blacks succeed
in helping get clinton nomination.which is they're right.then i have the right to come november to say screw you and stay home for
first election ever.

Consently attacking bernie supporters and they think we will just forget everything we believe in and hold our noise and spend our time in voting clinton.they are ignoring fact republicans hate her and independents don't like her.and if some dems who supported
Bernie say screw it and don't vote,vote green,or write in bernie's name or god forbid vote trump in protest how is she going to win.

to me what this election really shows is progressives have no place in democratic party anymore.how phony so many dems are.
this is corporate and neocon party.republican talking points were used against bernie.

the 99% lose no matter who wins between trump and clinton.if trump wins you have total gop control for years to come.if clinton wins it will be by squeaker with gop house and senate.she will continue to push for top 1%,more war,and will help gop continue to destroy the legacy of new deal,new froniter,and great society.Dems will get mascured in 2018 midterm assuring GOP control of house for years to come.

[brush]

37. The "if not Bernie, I'm staying home or voting green" meme is a huge turnoff . . .

to a great many dems and we've been hearing that from many Sanders supporters for months.

This is not heard from Clinton supporters nor was it heard from O'Malley supporters.

There is such a thing as party loyalty that is reciprocated if proven, but trashing the other candidates and the party as untrustworthy liars and repugs-lite is not the way to go about it. The party was here before Bernie joined it. Him joining did not automatically change all the dynamics and loyalties already existing within the party.

Bernie is a good man but he is ill-server by the extremely vocal group of out-of-control, disloyal-to-the-party supporters who have no one to blame but themselves.

The party is diverse, it's not all about whites in nearly all-white Iowa and NH. It should have come as no surprise when the voting moved to more diverse states that the Bernie-bro mentality was not shared by everyone in the party.

The Nevada and SC results seems to have knocked quite a few Sanders supporters completely off balance and they've responded by now blaming black voters for not seeing things how they see them.

Is that naivete or political inexperience to not anticipate campaign setbacks (a given in politics) and when confronted with said setbacks, respond with vitriolic attacks on core dem constituencies instead of rolling up the sleeves, putting out the fire in the hair and working harder to attract voters in the many other state primaries to come with honey instead of vinegar?

And it might be a good idea to get rid of Cornell West also. That move in itself lost Sanders many AA votes.

[yourpaljoey]

53. Hillary will do nothing to win their vote... she should not count on their vote

[brush]

55. We're you asleep during the South Carolina primary?

She's already got the AA vote.

[Onlooker]

14. The MSM is against him

Bernie is slipping in the polls for a number of reasons -- he does not get the media attention that the other insurgent (Trump) gets. Part of the reason for that is he's not outrageous. He's a serious candidate. The other reason he's slipping in the polls, I think, is because his supporters are really alienating a lot of people. These Bernie supporters come across as part of an aggressive, white male youth culture. It's very alienating, and harming Bernie. Any true liberal who supports Bernie also has enormous respect for the reality that minorities support Hillary, so when Bernie's white supporters act like assholes it puts a lot of us in an uncomfortable position. In this forum, we see right wing talking points regurgitated and attempts to define Hillary as a right wing militaristic crook. Do Bernie supporters think that by insulting Hillary supporters they will win votes?

[Armstead]

36. I think Bernie supporters were deliberately put into an uncomfortable position at the start

It was an uphill struggle inherently...But instead of running a fair campaign, Team Clinton used both the levers of power, and a lack of political principles to make this a much uglier and more divisive campaign than need be,

[wyldwolf]

15. "But they will."

[Betty Karlson]

17. "They have no idea"

Yes, their shortsighted campaign strategy (burn all bridges and scorch all earth that Sanders supporters may walk on) show that Third Way is fresh out of ideas, and soon fresh out of demographic support too.

This idea-less arrogance is ging to split the party one way or the other. The party may yet survive the nomination of the incarnation of arrogance (Clinton) but it will not survive another four yours of DNC/DINO/Debbie/Third Way monopoly of its leadership.

[Red Knight]

23. Yep.

You can see it in these responses.

While we may not make up the majority of the party it is a significant amount.

The "get Hillary elected at all costs" strategy will bite this party in the ass.

So you'll find them cocky and sarcastic now--but resentful and finger-pointing later.

Sit down, shut-up or get out is kind of a bad plan to grow your party--or even keep it afloat.

What the media/DNC/Hillary supporters(whether actual supporters or just paid ones on forums or in the media) are doing is indeed very short sighted.

But all the posting in the world about it isn't going to change any of that.

They will do as they please and live with the results.

[Betty Karlson]

24. They have inoculated themselves from reality.

All that matters now is the world of the 1 % as they perceive it from behind their hoi-polloi-proof, high-walled mansions.

[Merryland]

26. couldn't agree more.

[Freddie Stubbs]

18. Voters are learning more about him and his pie-in-the-sky platform and are acting accordingly

[Vinca]

22. Dream small.

[Armstead]

39. Rush thanks you for spreading his message about libralism

[LexVegas]

19. Treatment of civil rights icons, treatment of PP and HRC. Not by him, but his supporters. nt

[MisterP]

29. trends vs. last-week sampling

[brooklynite]

44. Of course, "last werk sampling" will affect "this week voting"

[R B Garr]

35. He's very repetitive, and it turns people off. Eventually they want some type of

specifics at least as an assurance that there is substance behind the cliché talking points. Apparently people took a look at him and are not sticking.

[Armstead]

43. That is the only criticism from anti-Sanders people I will actually agree with

I understand why Sanders has kept his message tight and repetitive. Because it is something most voters have not heard from politicians, and needs to be repeated to break through the noise.

But I do wish he'd have opened up more. he is a very smart guy who knows and cares about a lot of things. But he hasn't shown enough of that side of him in the campaign.

[Adrahil]

45. To be fair, it's kind of his thing.

It doesn't appeal to me, but it is sort of the core of his argument.

Bernie DOES care about a lot of things, but he believes that most of the problems are tied to wealth inequality.... class struggle. It's the core of the philosophy he has embraced his entire political career.

He's not completely wrong, IMO, and there are many in the party who fundamentally agree with him. But it is difficult to engage in a long campaign focused around one issue. And the argument tends to fray a bit at the edges.

[Armstead]

54. It's my thing too....and I agree with him that so many otehr issues flow from that

Sanders record in Congress and as Mayor, prove that he does have a broader and more nuanced multifaceted view. As I said above, I wish he would allow himself to express that more.

But I do think it is because he is trying to give us all a wake up call -- or more accurately, provide a political venue to work on solutions to the problems people already are aware of. This has NOT been addressed in our mainstream political process for a long time.

Our systems no longer work to provide common benefits, even under the accepted basic rules of business. Competition and free enterprise are being killed along with the rights of workers and consumes, the environment and common good by the rapacious greed of the elites and the massive corporations they operate.

Most of the issues that punch people in the gut on a regular basis stem from that. I could go on with specifics but I won't here.

Suffice it to say that until the overall population is allowed to oppose that concentration of wealth and power, on specifics as well as in a holistic sense, we will continue the march towards an Oligarchy and a true dystopia.

[bettyellen]

51. Not just repetitive but it seems like every single issue goes back to money no matter what.

When he brought it up for Russia in one of the debates, I yelled stop it at the TV screen! We can't fix Russia's money problems, you're getting side tracked again. He needs to be more concretely solution oriented on policy that fix things- go beyond the theme of money as an obstruction.

[Chezboo]

56. That's how greed works. Tiring, isn't it? nt

[bettyellen]

59. Except you maybe should not bring up Russia's money problems unless you have a solve.

Sucks, but he is not playing the role of an educator. People want solutions. Not problems like "greed" that are nebulous and unsolvable.

[Attorney in Texas]

46. If you look at all of the live phone likely voter polling, he's slipped up 12% while Clinton fell 2%

over the past 4 months.



Some polls are going to show the race tighter and some will show it less narrow. For example, if you look at ALL of the likely voter polling over the past 4 months, you would think that there was a sharp turn in the polling on February 27:



Do you realize ALL of this is 100% because of ONE internet pollster? If you drop out the YouGov polling for the Economist magazine and keep ALL OF THE OTHER LIKELY VOTER POLLS (including ones with a huge in house effect for Clinton), the race is tied:



I'm not saying to ignore the YouGov internet-based poll, but I am suggesting that there is no need to put too much concern toward one online pollster of a national race which does not exist (the national polling does not predict the result in a national primary because there is no national primary).

[JaneyVee]

48. All those oligarchs in SC!

[Avalux]

58. What if....the election has already been stolen?

20 years ago we were worried about electronic voting machines...windows based software. Nothing ever happened and we are in even deeper now.

What if the system is totally rigged no matter what, and all of this primary stuff is just entertainment to keep us occupied? Even if it's true, doesn't seem we can do anything about it anyway.

(I think this sometimes on a really bad day).