2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Supporters Need to Remember:
But there are 5 important facts the media is leaving out that show Sanders has a far better chance than most pundits give him.
1. Bernie is absolutely crushing Hillary in the money race
Bernie Sanders has already raised an astonishing $36 million this month from 1.2 million individual contributions an average of $30 per donation. And with still hours to go, the Sanders campaign is trying to hustle to get $40 million in the month of February. This is a pretty big deal, considering the campaign out-raised Hillary Clinton for the first time ever in January, with $21.3 million to her $14.9 million. This means that Bernie may end up doubling his January fundraising haul, leaving Clinton in the dust. Between the start of his campaign in April 2015 and January 31, Bernie Sanders raised $94.8 million.
2. In South Carolina, Bernie was the far-and-away favorite of voters that swing elections
Even though Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by 47 percent in South Carolina, Sanders still won key constituencies by decisive margins these are the same demographics that typically decide general elections. Among independent voters, Sanders won by 7. Sanders also won by 8 points with voters aged 18 to 29.
He also won with white male democrats by 12 points, and completely dominated among first-time primary voters with a 26-point margin. Its important to note these constituencies make up a small percentage of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, where Democratic turnout in the reddest state in America was horrendous. The 370,000 participants in the South Carolina Democratic primary make up just 13 percent of the overall electorate. Sanders will fare far better in many of the Super Tuesday states. Speaking of which
3. Bernie is polling very well in significant Super Tuesday states
According to respected pollster Nate Silver, Bernie Sanders is positioned take a majority of delegates in Massachusetts, Vermont, Colorado, and Minnesota. In Colorado one of the must-win swing states in November Sanders was ahead of Clinton by 6 points in polls released 10 days ago. Hell likely take a significant number of delegates in Oklahoma and Tennessee.
And he may very well surprise pundits and pollsters in states like Virginia, Texas, and Arkansas, where the Democratic electorates demographics are more favorable to Sanders. As the Huffington Post pointed out, even if Sanders is 150 delegates behind Hillary Clinton at the end of the day on Super Tuesday, he could cut his delegate deficit by one-third if he wins California in June.
4. 96 percent of primary voters havent voted yet
Its important to keep in mind that, so far, only 4 out of 50 states have voted in the Democratic primaries as of this writing. Clinton won South Carolina considerably and Nevada narrowly; Sanders tied with her in Iowa and crushed her in New Hampshire. While the primary contests leading up to March 15 are favorable to Clinton, Sanders is poised to do much better in states with large populations of true-blue Democrats like New York, Washington, Oregon, California, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan. All of these states have demographics similar to Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, where Sanders did well against Clinton.
5. The media is severely understating Bernie Sanders electability
As Bernie Sanders said after his South Carolina loss, the campaign is just getting started. In the last 24 hours, Sanders has already picked up endorsements from Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii), the vice-chair of the DNC, who resigned from her post to back the Vermont senator, and Congressman Alan Grayson (D-Florida), a liberal icon who is one of the leading voices of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. There are also three more Democratic debates in March, April, and May, which will expose Sanders to more voters in primary states holding contests later in the Spring. And for months, nationally-respected polling organizations like Quinnipiac show Sanders fares better in general election matchups with all leading Republicans than Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes and tends to be the state that decides presidential elections, Quinnipiac has Clinton trailing or tying with all Republican candidates.
http://usuncut.com/politics/5-reasons-bernie-sanders-supporters-shouldnt-be-down/
Raster
(20,998 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)FailureToCommunicate
(14,022 posts)(And then go vote again, just for good measure)
HubertHeaver
(2,522 posts)Windy City election slogan: Vote early, vote often.
for the impaired:
captainarizona
(363 posts)I tried to warn du bernie sanders supporters that he needed to appeal to african american voters on their issues black lives matter not billionaires dark money and got blocked from the bernie thread for my troubles. He better win texas latinos.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Do you know much about Black voters in South Carolina?
I don't, so I am wondering what percentage of Black voters in South Carolina have internet access? What percent rely on cable news for information?
Do you know? I'm really asking questions, not making a comment. I'd love to know that information.
Bernie is more of a liberal (Thom Hartmann and Ed Schultz) radio and internet candidate than a mainstream media candidate. That could explain why South Carolinians did not realize the extent to which Bernie does deal constantly with "their" issues (which are the issues all of us Democrats care about).
I question whether the problem was that Bernie did not emphasize the issues of African-Americans but rather was that the African-Americans did not really hear Bernie's message.
I don't know. It's a question.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Is somehow in the tank for Hillary is not serious. Bernie gets handled with kid gloves. Name any other candidate who could write questionable essays and whose campaign had a data breach and have the mefia just ignore it.
nxylas
(6,440 posts)It's in the media's interest to have the eventual nominee be the scandal-a-day candidate rather than having to try and drum up interest by shouting "OMG guys, did you know he's a socialist?" over and over again for 6 months.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)brooklynite
(94,740 posts)Clinton is ahead in polls in MA and MN
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)Are you citing the Star and Tribune poll? Because no one in this state actually is buying it. It is over a month old and it wasn't terribly well done in the first place.
andrewv1
(168 posts)First Rubio who doesn't look that good against Trump right now &....
The other one is Clinton which might be their best bet for the moment.
And no doubt Chuckie on Lockheed Martin ad sponsored Meet the Press & Clinton Carrier Cuomo on the Clinton Nomination Network have been given their "Marching Orders"....
appalachiablue
(41,175 posts)silvershadow
(10,336 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)But we are in it to Convention.
Then we will know if our candidate is the nominee.
Laser102
(816 posts)Not a real surprise that people who adore this President, do not like what they are hearing. No surprise at all. Trying to wipe out the past eight years is never going to fly. We had an awesome president in Obama. I'm voting to insure his legacy. I'm voting for Clinton.
Svafa
(594 posts)able to make good on many more of his promises if not for republican obstruction. Republicans despise Hillary and will do exactly to her what they did to Obama. If she were to become POTUS, it would be nothing more than four (or eight) more years of Republican obstruction. Not to mention, I supported Obama over her in 08 because she is significantly more conservative than him. The best way to protect his legacy is to expand on his push toward progress, not to take a step backward to the right.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)He is not running in opposition to Obama. He has supported Obama and voted for Obama's legislation adding to it, adding good proposals to it. He was in the group that wrote the Obamacare legislation and added useful ideas and policies to the final bill.
Bernie wants to carry Obama's progress further.
I worry more about Hillary trying to wipe out Obama's legacy than about Bernie doing that.
If you want to vote to insure Obama's legacy -- the good part of it because he was hindered a great deal by the Republicans, you need to vote for Bernie not Clinton.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Whether Bernie ends up winning or not at least he moved the party to the left! HE ALONE GOT THAT DONE! He got the right thing done! That alone is quite an accomplishment! Getting things done is nothing to brag about unless they are the right things to get done!
I can't wait until tomorrow.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)of corruption and unfairness in our society, forward.
Winning elections, losing elections.
That's just one aspect of politics.
Changing political and human awareness of our interconnectedness is a spiritual purpose in politics.
All of the universe is one.
In grabbing bits of it, we try to forget that fact. But the "dust to dust, ashes to ashes" cycle is part of nature, part of the universe of life.
Bernie reminds us that we are one, that we cannot grab from others without grabbing from ourselves. That's what I see in him.
If Jesus were alive today, he would support Bernie. I'm as sure as I can be of that.
Do unto others what you would have them do unto you.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Meanwhile poverty grow, working people's desperation grows. Millennials will get older and vote more. It's not going away.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)if I have to crawl there to attend.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)hifiguy
(33,688 posts)Why the purple F*&K are states that NO Democrat will EVER crack 40% in any GE allocated such power in the selection of delegates?
amborin
(16,631 posts)South Carolina, one of the original 13 colonies, attained statehood in May 1788 and has participated in every presidential election except 1864, when it had seceded from the Union. South Carolina has had eight electoral votes since 1932. Like many other southern states, South Carolina voted almost exclusively Democratic from the time of Reconstruction through the early 1960s, before turning Republican largely in response to civil rights legislation. South Carolina was one of only six states to vote for Barry Goldwater in 1964 and has voted Republican since, except in 1976 when it voted for fellow southerner Jimmy Carter. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama 55% to 44%.
http://www.270towin.com/states/South_Carolina
Marr
(20,317 posts)It's far too defined by conservative states.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)ladjf
(17,320 posts)Presidential election.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)a state no Democrat will ever win, should be at the back of the process. States like the West Coast states, Democratic strongholds, should have much more say in the process.
H2O Man
(73,622 posts)Thank you!
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