2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhen Interpreting A Florida And North Carolina Poll
When interpreting a Florida and North Carolina poll keep in mind those states had a five point and seven point Republican lean in 2008, i.e. , while Obama was winning nationally 53%-46% he was only winning Florida 51%-49% and North Carolina 50%- 49.7%.
It would be nice to win those states but they are the proverbial cherry on top of the cake. We can win without them.
But if we can make the enemy spend time and effort there it means he is not spending time elsewhere.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)I think NC is more Democratic than it was in 2008, so the lean should be significantly less this time. The Democratic party registered a ton of new voters here and the OFA ground game is great. I don't expect an Obama win here but it's definitely in play.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Kerry and Obama not so much but obviously won the pop vote by seven percent so he had a much bigger cushion.
Bad Thoughts
(2,536 posts)... for Romney and the conservative PACs. That would be victory enough.
TomClash
(11,344 posts)I agree. These are tough for us. But we need Ohio and that is where a theft may occur.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Ohio won't be close enough to steal.
TomClash
(11,344 posts)I disagree on Ohio.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)With O currently leading 76-24 among early voters who constitute 20% of the sample so far, it's almost impossible to see how R can win Ohio.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Defending states where he's barely ahead instead of fighting in states where he's behind.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)GOTV effort.
It was truly awe-inspiring in 2008. Throughout.
TomClash
(11,344 posts)Then it is another ball game.
jimdeed
(14 posts)Ohio and Colorado are the states you need to watch if this stays close as it is now.