Ohio may historically be a "swing state," but it has already swung for 2012 (to Obama)

[morningfog]

The polling for Ohio this election has looked more similar to Pennsylvania than is has to FL, VA and CO.

I posit that FL, VA and CO are the only unswung states in 2012 (with the slight possibility that NH is still in play, but irrelevant to electoral math). I am also conceding that NC has probably moved to Romney's column, but would love to be wrong on that.

OH, though, is in the column with PA, MI, WI and IA where Romney has never once had or held a lead in aggregate polling. It has never truly been in play. Obama carried it comfortably in 2008, and the unemployment is lower in OH than nationally. Add to that the outstanding early voting numbers coming from OH for Obama and it is clear Ohio is not in play, if it ever actually was.

That means, even if NH goes to Romney. And even if Romney picked up NC, CO, VA and FL as well, he would still lose.

In other words, Romney, to win, in addition to running the board (on NC, VA, CO, VA, FL and NH) would have to flip either OH, WI or MI. Taking IA alone wouldn't do it, nor would NV alone.

In OH, WI, and MI Romney has never led in the polling average. Never.

Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ohio_election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

Wisconsin: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wisconsin_election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

Michigan: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wisconsin_election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html


This election is not nearly as close as the repubs or the media would have you believe. In fact, the electoral math against Romney is damn near insurmountable at this point.

[scheming daemons]

1. The only way the GOP can win Ohio is by getting away with vote suppression shenanigans.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

2. Under pressure, Clear Channel Outdoor removed the voter fraud billboards targeting minorities...

A small, but great success.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

18. Truly!

[Kablooie]

5. They've also got Tag Romney's voting machines out there to help beef up his dad's numbers.

[donco]

3. I could be wrong

but i think that the show-me state (Mo)could go Obamas way this year.Odd Todd pissed a lot of women off.

[Tigress DEM]

15. HOPE you are RIGHT!!

[Tigress DEM]

4. SIGN the petition to make sure OHIO is NOT stolen again VOTING MACHINE ISSUES

SIGN the petition @ Change.org petition FOR Attorney General Eric Holder to investigate the Romney Family Connection to VOTING MACHINES & add INVESTIGATE Hart Intercivic board of directors, Neil Tuch & Jeff Bohl in the free space line.

with 34,737 supporters
263 NEEDED

http://www.change.org/petitions/attorney-general-eric-holder-investigate-tagg-romney-owning-voting-machines-in-ohio

FROM FORBES ARTICLE <snip>
Hart Intercivic board of directors, Neil Tuch and Jeff Bohl, have made direct contributions to the Romney campaign.

[JackN415]

10. Yes, there must be way to keep this post & URL stick at the top so people see and sign

[Tigress DEM]

14. Reached 35,000 signatures - NEW GOAL 50,000 / 35,638 supporters 14,362 NEEDED

SOME GREAT COMMENTS

Sacramento, CA
2 days ago Liked 135

The son of a candidate running for President should NOT be allowed to own voting machines, that is so ridiculous!

new york, NY
2 days ago Liked 111

I remember what happened in Ohio in 2004, thats why.

Hewitt, TX
2 days ago Liked 102

The son of a presidential candidate owning voting machines is absolutely unacceptable. It's most definitely a conflict of interest and should be forbidden.

Vida, OR
2 days ago Liked 84

It should be obvious! CONFLICT OF INTEREST. All electronic voting should be banned.

Spring Green, WI
2 days ago Liked 80

This is a conflict of interest and not acceptable. Potential criminal activity - if we don't have a choice in the end... people will feel why vote at all?

[trayfoot]

16. am having trouble with the site

[Tigress DEM]

22. With 40,200 supporters 9,799 NEEDED to reach 50,000

http://www.change.org/petitions/attorney-general-eric-holder-investigate-tagg-romney-owning-voting-machines-in-ohio

[Cosmocat]

6. it looks good

I think most people here know the point you are making.

And, this is why Silver's model and intrade and most cumulative rankings have BO at a 65 to romney 35 to win the presidency.

And, with early voting in Ohio, the cake is already fairly baked.

I will make these points;

1) It has been so volatile since the first debate, that there still is a CHANCE this thing turns against BO, and it could spill over to Ohio. Not a good chance, but possible. I was feeling better a few days ago, but there already is some erosion from the momentum that bo was able to generate from the second debate. The election can not possibly come soon enough.

2) Part of my, and I think other folks "concern" is the margin of victory. of course they Rs are going to be complete dicks regardless, but the closer the election, the more that it helps to justify their wanting to de-legitimize a BO win and second term. I think people want to see more space to both ensure a win and also to ensure a big enough win to give him more legitimacy to work with in his second term.

3) Also, the issue is coat tails for congress, the House in specific. HOPEFULLY, the senate races remain compartmentalized like they have been and the initial assessment of the senate very likely flipping R will end up with a net gain of a seat or two for the ds. The House has always been a long shot, but the more they can chip into it the less capacity for those clowns to muck things up over the next few years.

[RedSpartan]

8. With regard to your point #1...

I agree, but remember that 20% of the votes in Ohio have already been cast and Obama leads those by a wide margin. Even if the polls tighten in general, he has a lot of padding. Romney basically has to win the remaining 80% by a 56%+ margin, and no poll has ever shown him anywhere in that universe.

[pnwmom]

9. The cake is not baked in Ohio

until the votes are actually counted -- and unless they are counted accurately.

[Arugula Latte]

11. Don't worry -- Tagg will see to that.

[wt1531]

7. Justice Dept and Ohio Democrats are watching Ohio voting

Any funny business regarding voting will not be tolerated.

[Amphigouri]

12. I hope Ohioans don't agree with you

The facts don't work well in our favor. People better get out and vote, or we lose Ohio.

CNN today: “Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22 percent. Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29 percent.”

That is a 13 point swing for repugs. It's far from a lost cause, but if we think Ohio is a slam dunk,we're deluding ourselves. The biggest thing I fear is a perception that some of these states are foregone conclusions.

[LisaL]

13. All the polls of OH show that early vote is heavily to Obama's favor.

He is winning big among those who already voted in all 4 recent polls.
So if democrats make less than republicans in proportion to 2008, that's even better.
Although I have no clue how they would know that, since in OH voters do not register by party.

[pnwmom]

17. But how do we know the votes are being counted correctly? n/t

[TroyD]

19. I hope the Obama campaign is making sure they are

As they say, "It's not who votes, it's who counts the votes."

[pnwmom]

21. Unfortunately, you can't tell that by looking at the machines.

University researchers have examined the machines and found out that they can miscount votes without leaving any trace.

[Kteachums]

20. I was out in Ohio last Summer and everyone seemed to be for Obama!

If this state takes a turn around something illegal is happening. I know how much folks there love him. He has rescued their jobs for now and the future. Way to go Ohio! Get out and vote for our President!

[GetTheRightVote]

23. I am happy to hear it...

will be happy when this election is over with Pres. Obama re-elected and in the WH,