Loras Wisconsin Poll just released - 47 Clinton to 41 Sanders

[Godhumor]

For the record I think Bernie is winning Wisconsin, but this does run counter to the last few polls out:

http://www.wtmj.com/news/cruz-clinton-lead-respective-races-in-new-poll

The poll, conducted by Loras College in Du Buque Iowa, shows Cruz holding a 38% to 31% over Donald Trump in the GOP Primary race. 18% of people polled said they would vote for John Kasich and 13% said they were still undecided.

Poll author Dr. Christopher Budzisz says they surveyed 1,000 registered voters across the state, including 832 likely primary voters.

It is the first time Loras College has polled Wisconsin voters.

On the Democratic side, 47% of surveyed voters said they would vote for Hillary Clinton, a 6 point lead over Bernie Sanders who garnered 41% of the vote.

[geek tragedy]

1. are they related to Tyrell university?

tempting to laugh this one off, but then the last school project to get laughed off was the Michigan poll showing Bernie had a chance to win.

That said, I'm still saying Sanders +16, which is what he needs to get for the night to be considered a success.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. She just needs to keep it close... Look at the trendline in the Ipsos-Reid nat'l poll

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20160201-20160401/type/smallest/spotlight/1

Democrats seems to be becoming alienated by the senator and his surrogate's negative campaigning.

[geek tragedy]

6. pretty soon we're going to hear about how her 'sick and tired of Sanders campaign lying'

comment wasn't her snapping, but rather part of an evil plan to take Bernie down, perfectly orchestrated.

she's on pretty solid ground, so she energizes her people while scuffing him his overly pristine image

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I suspect she knew what she was doing...

She only shows anger when she wants to show anger. I wish I had that kind of discipline.

[geek tragedy]

11. I think the Bernie people forgot what it's like to see her really throw down

she really hasn't done that this election, not nearly as much as she did vs Obama.

I know her people here were sick of turning the other cheek, for fear of 'offending his supporters'

I think they've concluded that the ones who are going to pout are going to pout anyways, and that the adults supporting him will be adults about the whole thing, just like she and her supporters were in 2008

[Kentonio]

27. I think Hillary would be very well advised not to push Bernie to the point of throwing down himself

If you've seen him in committee, then you'll know just how tough he can be when roused.

[Godhumor]

9. I'm not a huge fan of college polls, considering their generally spotty records, honestly

And I think Wisconsin will finish about Bernie +10 for a net gain of 8-9 delegates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Monmouth is a college poll and is A - rated but I get your point.

[Godhumor]

15. Monmouth is the exception to the rule, for sure n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. And Marist, Suffolk, and Quinnipiac

But they are essentially professional pollsters...Quinnipiac even has a PR agency.

[Godhumor]

24. Well, 1 of those 3 has one of the worst uncorrected house biases of the entire cycle

As I said, collegiate polls, as a whole, are spotty.

Monmouth and Marist tend to lead the way. Suffolk had been really hit or miss and the other one is not even worth talking about.

Loras hasn't had a great track record overall, unfortunately.

[geek tragedy]

14. I'm guessing +15-16% for 13-15 delegates.

Really one of the most favorable states for him outside of IA and NH. If he can't blow her out here in an open primary, no chance in the mid-atlantic closed primaries

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. According to this poll she's leading the senator 69-14 among WI African Americans

and 60-40 among Wisconsin Latino Americans* :

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Loras-WI-March-2016-release-1-toplines-and-crosstabs-final.pdf


Question 20



*small samples, though

[geek tragedy]

20. seems reasonable but as you said small samples

I would be very surprised by a Clinton win. I don't see Sanders underperforming Obama by that much, but then again Obama is a Democrat

Reallly wonky figure there is Bernie only up 20% in young voters--but Ted Cruz killing it with the same age group.

I agree that if she holds Sanders to +24 in young voters, she'll win, but I don't there's any chance of that happening

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. WI can surprise. Jimmy Carter beat Morris Udall there, but it should be a Sanders win.

[geek tragedy]

22. It's absolutely a must win for him nt

[mcar]

25. I appreciate this discussion

Very informative. Thanks.

[Gwhittey]

2. Bad poll the numbers could go any way.

You would think a college would update Methodology after lesson that MI has taught us.
"Sample drawn from random selection of phone numbers of registered voters purchased through third-party vendor."
This is issue with many of the polls. Some are better because they also use Cell Phones. But using a registered voters purchased through third-party vendor will get you voter lists from past elections and voter demographics has changed so much this election.

[snowy owl]

4. Polls change. Who cares. Does anybody pay attn to them?

[woolldog]

5. Do you know whether the poll accounts for

all of the Republicans who typically cross over to vote for Bernie in open primaries?

[geek tragedy]

7. I don't think there'll be that many with WI really being a pitched battle

amongst Cruz and Snott Walker vs Drumpf.

Independents who hate the Democratic party should put him over the top there though

[Kentonio]

29. "Independents who hate the Democratic party"? Seriously?

Can't you just accept he represents a vision of the Democratic party that many former Democrats feel was previously lost, and that they are returning to support him for that reason? Is it absolutely necessary to paint the most progressive member of the senate as some kind of enemy of the Democratic party despite him voting with them on something like 98% of votes?

[geek tragedy]

30. You mean the ones who talk about the party itself being hopelessly

corrupt and neoliberal oppressors of working people?

The ones who want to strangle the party by not letting it raise money?

Sanders himself has been quite open in his contempt for the party itsellf, referring to Democrats and Republicans as Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dumm. Just because he voted with members of the party (the other option being to vote with Republicans) does not mean he has any goodwill towards the party itself.

How often do we need to hear independents on the left talking about "voting for the lesser of two evils" before we take them at their word?

Bernie quotes:

“You don’t change the system from within the Democratic Party.”

“My own feeling is that the Democratic Party is ideologically bankrupt.”



“We have to ask ourselves, ‘Why should we work within the Democratic Party if we don’t agree with anything the Democratic Party says?’”

He's not fit to lead a party for which he has scorn and contempt..

[Kentonio]

32. Many of us don't have an ounce of loyalty for a name or a label

Only for the principles and ideals that they represent. The DLC/Third Way changed the Democratic party significantly, and calling the party out for that is exactly what I'd hope any true left leaning progressive would do.

Taking a purist view where the Democratic party must be supported no matter what it does serves only to ensure that the party will continue to do exactly what its current leadership wants. That is not ok to many of us.

[creeksneakers2]

37. If you don't like the party

you shouldn't get involved in the primaries. Primaries are for deciding together who will win the backing of the entire party. It's cheating to try to influence the outcome if you won't support the outcome.

[Kentonio]

39. Sorry you're wrong. The primary is the time when we get to change the party.

Not just go along with whatever the current leadership want.

[creeksneakers2]

40. What's the point of changing

the party if you don't expect the rest of the party to stay in once your changes are made? You want everybody else to support your side when it wins, but you don't support the other side when it wins. Yes, you get to participate now, but what you are doing is cheating.

The leadership is there because people voted for them. Its not you against them, its you against what all the members collectively decided.

[Kentonio]

41. If you have enough people to change the party

Then they'll stay once the party is something they can support again. The people saying they'll go back to being independents, are the people who don't actually think Bernie will win. If we don't win, then there's no reason for the people who voted for change to stay around for the status quo, that's just common sense.

[creeksneakers2]

42. Its common sense

like saying after you have a meal at a restaurant there's no sense in staying around to pay for it.

[Kentonio]

43. No, its more like saying if you have a shitty meal at a restaurant there's no point leaving a tip.

[creeksneakers2]

44. You didn't have a shitty meal

You got to support your candidate.

[kristopher]

45. Hmmm...

Notice the blue line's level for all that time after FDR and before Clinton?

[creeksneakers2]

46. I'm not sure what your point is

Your graph shows Democratic membership dropping dramatically from from 1960 to 1990, then leveling off when Clinton came along. Republicans dropped too. More people are independents now, that's the difference.

[kristopher]

47. Of course you aren't sure of the point.

You aren't even sure of your own point.

[itsrobert]

10. I say Bernie wins it, but he won't get the 65 percent he needs to remain in the race.

Does everybody else agree?

[BainsBane]

13. He'll remain in the race regardless

There aren't enough delegates in WI to justify a decision either way. But I agree with your prediction regarding the results.

NY is really the test. By then it will be evident whether or not he has any chance left.

[Recursion]

38. It's 56%, and that's not "to stay in the race"

He'd like to get higher than 56%, of course, to lower the required percentage in later states.

[litlbilly]

17. Maybe they should try polling actual non Hillary people under the age of 65 with landlines:)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Res ipsa loquitur

Q24. Did I reach you today on a landline or cell phone?
Landline 56%
Cell phone 44%
Refused 1%

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Loras-WI-March-2016-release-1-toplines-and-crosstabs-final.pdf

[Gothmog]

23. Thanks for posting

[Lucinda]

26. Niiice! Thank you!

[KingFlorez]

28. Good news

[MineralMan]

31. We'll know on Tuesday night or

Wednesday morning. Until then, why the impatience? It's silly. Let Wisconsin voters vote, for goodness' sake.

[Ellipsis]

33. First time polling Wisco., 5%/MOE, 11% undecided.

Whatever.

[Dawson Leery]

34. How will the indies vote?

If they flood into the GOP side, Hillary should win, otherwise it's Bernie's, though he will not win by a massive margin.
All polling indicates registered Democrats prefer Hillary.

[Godhumor]

35. I don't think Bernie or Hillary see a big change in total delegates coming from WI

They've both moved onto the much richer in delegates playground of NY.

[Attorney in Texas]

36. You realize there are two subsequent polls that show Sanders up by 5% and 6% in Wisconsin, right?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

Also, you realize this is the same pollster who had Hillary winning Iowa by 20%, right?

[HughLefty1]

48. Plenty of media and corporate bias in all these polls..

Bottomline we all need to vote. Don't trust the polls. Many have an agenda.