Summary of the upcoming April primaries

[George II]

In the next three weeks some very big states will be conducting their Democratic primaries. Here are the Project538 forecasts and poll summaries (and delegate counts based on poll forecast):

April 5 – Wisconsin (86 delegates)

Chance of winning - Clinton 31%, Sanders 69%
Polls-only forecast – Clinton 47.4%, Sanders 50.0%
Delegate count – Clinton 42, Sanders 44

April 19 – New York (247 delegates)

Chance of winning - Clinton 96%, Sanders 4%
Polls-only forecast – Clinton 56.7%, Sanders 41.3%
Delegate count – Clinton 143, Sanders 104

April 26 – Maryland (95 delegates)

Chance of winning - Clinton 93%, Sanders 7%
Polls-only forecast – Clinton 65.6%, Sanders 32.1%
Delegate count – Clinton 64, Sanders 31

April 26 – Pennsylvania (189 delegates)

Chance of winning - Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Polls-only forecast – Clinton 61.2%, Sanders 35.2%
Delegate count – Clinton 124, Sanders 65

Net results – Clinton 373 delegates, Sanders 244

Also voting between tomorrow and April 26 are Wyoming (14 delegates), Connecticut (55 delegates), Delaware (21 delegates), and Rhode Island (24 delegates), a total of 114 delegates but no forecasts are available yet.

[geek tragedy]

1. It's been an amazing piece of spin that the Clinton was a regional southern candidate

when her strength has always been the mid-Atlantic states.

That said, I think the margin in NY is slightly overstated and the margin in PA is definitely overstated.

Cut those margins in half, and it's still game over though.

[George II]

3. You're right - Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, Massachusetts - none are southern states

[geek tragedy]

5. She thumped Obama in Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey

Not sure why people think those areas are natural Bernie territory, especially with closed primaries.

[Buzz Clik]

6. Agreed. I think a far more reasonable outcome for NY and MD would be roughly 1/2 the gaps indicated.

If Sanders is to survive the month of April, he must tighten the NY and MD even further than that.

[geek tragedy]

7. he should have been doing his big rallies in early March.

Imagine if he had been able to tell those 18,000 people in the Bronx to go register to vote.

He's waiting until after the registration deadlines to visit states.

Curious strategy at play there. Almost like Marco Rubio's "just be Marco" strategy.

If he sinks all of his time in NY, he then has to split his attention between PA and MD. MD is going to be one of those states "we chose not to compete in"

[Buzz Clik]

2. Unless Sanders flips that April delegate count (or at least splits them 50/50), it's over.

No, Hillary will not have the required delegate count, but the task in front of him will be immense.

[Trust Buster]

4. He was nothing but a charlatan IMO.

[geek tragedy]

8. he was a protest candidate who let his ego get caught up in the race nt

[Buzz Clik]

9. +1

Which is kinda sad.

[geek tragedy]

10. it's politicians, it's who they are, they live for this stuff.

Bernie Sanders is a very good politician, because he fools people into thinking he isn't one.

[Trust Buster]

11. I agree.

[geek tragedy]

12. I don't think at heart he wants the job.

that interview on TYT actually produced a remarkable moment where he said he doesn't see himself as a leader.

[Trust Buster]

14. He has handled his fame badly. He has hurt the Party more than he has helped IMO.

[geek tragedy]

16. he'll be able to walk it back.

This all ends within 4 weeks. He goes back to being a protest candidate focused on the issues after April 26.

[Trust Buster]

18. I don't know if he can. I know that, when I see him on my television screen, my blood boils.

[geek tragedy]

19. and his people feel that way about Hillary, but he will do the right thing at the end of the day

just like Clinton did in 2008

[NWCorona]

13. In other words

He realized he can win this!

FYI, everyone in politics has an ego. Bernie admitted he has one in interviews and no doubt Hillary has one.

[killbotfactory]

21. He's pushing democrats to the left

Sorry that bothers you so much.

But not really.

[B Calm]

15. After Bernie wins Wisconsin the polls will change.

[Buzz Clik]

17. Everyone knows Sanders will win Wisconsin. Why would the polls change?

[geek tragedy]

20. like how he carried tremendous momentum from Michigan into Ohio? nt

[DCBob]

22. Wisconsin will have little effect on voters in NY and the mid-Atlantic states.

Why would voters on the east coast care what upper mid-west cheeseheads do?

...just joking about the cheeseheads

Bernie biggest problem is that these next batch of big delegate states are closed primaries. He doesn't fair well with actual Democrats in a normal primary. No "Independents" and no caucus style bullying allowed.

Too bad for Bernie!

[NurseJackie]

23. Well, he's certainly not going to win the nomination THAT way!