Michigan delegate allocation rules. It looks like Paul and Gingrich won't get any.

[morningfog]

Tuesday 28 February 2012: 30 of 30 of Michigan's delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Michigan Presidential Primary.

The Michigan Republicans will bind 2 delegates to the candidate receiving the most votes in each CD and bind the remaining delegates proportionally according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.

28 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 14 Congressional Districts. The party will use the boundaries from the 2010 census. Each congressional district is assigned 2 National Convention delegates.

The presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all of that district's National Convention delegates.

2 National Convention Delegates are to be proportionally bound to presidential contenders based on the statewide vote.

A candidate must receive 15% of the statewide vote to be eligible to receive National Convention delegates. From those candidates meeting this threshold, proportionally bind the national convention delegates according to the statewide vote. Round factions to the nearest whole number (below 0.5 are rounded down, 0.5 and above are rounded up). If the end result is less than 2 delegates, allocate 1 additional delegate to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide. If the end result is more than 2 delegates, subtract 1 delegate from the candidate receiving the fewest votes statewide.

Delegate binding: Delegates are bound to their Presidential preference from the start of the nominating process through the end of the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Delegates may not amend their Preference unless released from that commitment. Delegates become officially uncommitted if their Presidential candidate is either not allocated delegates or looses his/her delegates. Presidential candidates may not be allocated National Convention delegates if they withdraw, suspend their campaign, endorse another Presidential candidate, or seek the nomination of another political party for any political office.

From the Green Papers: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MI-R

Ron Paul is currently polling around 13%, it is possible he could reach the 15% threshold. There is also the possibility that Romney could win the most votes, but get the least delegates, depending on which districts he and Santorum each win.

Here is the Congressional District Map, unfortunately, it isn't very big, and cities aren't listed:




And here is Romney's share form 2008, by county:

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Is that "proportionally bind" the 2 statewide delegates taking into account the district seats won?

ie they say, for example, "in the congressional district seats, Romney won 16, Santorum 12; statewide, they got 36% and 34%, Paul got 18% (and Gingrich 10%), so Paul should get both the statewide seats to bring his total delegates closer to that 18%".

Or do they say " statewide, Romney got 36%, Santorum 34%, Paul 18% and Gingrich 10%, so Romney and Santorum each get 1 statewide seat - it doesn't matter how the district seats were allocated"?

On edit: I guess it's the 2nd.

"From those candidates meeting this threshold, proportionally bind the national convention delegates according to the statewide vote. Round factions to the nearest whole number (below 0.5 are rounded down, 0.5 and above are rounded up). If the end result is less than 14 2 delegates, allocate 1 additional delegate to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide. If the end result is more than 14 2 delegates, subtract 1 delegate from the candidate receiving the fewest votes statewide."

sounds like:

Romney gets .36*2 = 0.72 statewide delegates = rounds up to 1
Santorum gets .34*2 = 0.68 statewide delegates = rounds up to 1
Paul gets .18*2 = 0.36 statewide delegates = rounds down to 0

Basically, with only 2 statewide delegates, you have to come 1st or 2nd to get one. If they had the 14 (which they would have had if they hadn't been been penalised for holding the primary early), then 3rd placers would have much more of a chance of picking up delegates.

[WI_DEM]

2. like in other states this cycle, I believe Romney's vote will be below that of 2008