Bernie can only win open primaries or caucuses?

[SheilaT]

That's simply not true.

I've been looking at the chart posted in the Wiki article about the Democratic primaries and caucuses, and looking at the chart that's near the end, Hillary has won 6 closed and 10 open primaries or caucuses, and 4 that are semi open or semi closed. For Bernie the numbers are 6 closed, 6 open, and 4 of the other kind.

So he's won as many closed events as she has. Yes, he's done far better in winning caucuses, 10 to her 4, while she's won 16 primaries and he's only won 6 so far. But keep in mind that the calendar was always in her favor early on, and the hope on the part of her campaign was that she could build such an insurmountable lead that he'd be forced to drop out after Super Tuesday. So why didn't that happen?

Well, for one thing, other than in the deep south, many of her wins were squeakers. There's also the early voting factor. In a number of states she won the early voting, but lost the day of election voting. Why? Probably because those who voted early hadn't yet had much of a chance to hear Bernie and his message. New York and Pennsylvania, two big ones coming up, don't have early voting. Keep that in mind. And very early on, there was still a huge name recognition factor, which is largely gone now. Plus, the more people get to know Bernie, the better they like him. Whereas, sadly I'll add, the more people get to know Hillary, the less they like her. Even those who vote for her because they think she's the better choice, aren't all that fond of her. And I suspect some significant percentage of those are voting for her because they've been convinced she's the better general election candidate. Which simply isn't true.

Here's a link to the wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

[revbones]

1. The more time Bernie is able to have boots on the ground the better his numbers are. nt

[SheilaT]

3. So true.

And I seem to recall that several months ago enthusiastic Bernie supporters opened an office somewhere in NYC, despite his campaign not yet ready to do so.

I also know that at least one office for him has been opened in New Mexico by volunteers, again without help from the campaign.

Makes me wonder if there are any places where Hillary supporters opened an office on their own.

[geek tragedy]

2. early voting is for the most regular and dependable voters

the people who voted for Clinton early were never going to vote for Sanders, and vice versa.

Virginia is not the Deep South, and it's kinda weird to call Florida that, because once you get past the Panhandle, it's a completely different place.

Closed primaries are a problem for him. He's gotten thumped in both primaries that were closed. And he's lost registered Democrats in every open primary except NH, VT, and WI.

[KingFlorez]

4. Sanders has a problem winning registered and self-identified Democrats

Until the results are actually in no one can say for sure whether or not that will remain to be in issue in New York and Pennsylvania, but in other states it has been. This is a breakdown of Clinton's performance among Democrats in just a few states.

FL 71.00%
IA 56.00%
IL 57.00%
MA 60.00%
MI 58.00%
MO 55.00%
NC 65.00%
NH 48.00%
OH 64.00%
OK 52.00%
VA 71.00%
WI 50.00%

There is a clearly pattern of Sanders' margin being heavily padded by independents and not Democrats. He HAS to win Democrats to carry New York and Pennsylvania. There is no way around it, because they are closed primaries.

[Ferd Berfel]

5. THE GE is an Open Election

[Jester Messiah]

6. Darn those rotten independents!

There's gotta be a way to keep them from voting in the General!!