2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDavid Gergen: I would put the chances at about 53% for Obama, 47% for Romney
October 23, 2012
Obama has proven once more that he is better when behind, in the clutch, looking for a three-point basket. He was too complacent going into the first debate and almost threw away the election. Judging from e-mails and social media, many of his supporters felt he had let them down personally, threatening their ability to get health insurance or other needed benefits. By reasserting himself in the final debates, he restored their faith and energy for the homestretch.
Over the course of the final debates, Obama also cut Romney down to more human size. In their town hall encounter, Obama pummeled him with charges of lying, misleading voters, and pretending to be a moderate.
Monday night, Obama charged repeatedly that Romney had been all over the map on foreign policy. While Romney delivered some effective counterpunches, he no longer looked the way he did in the first debate -- like a man who went into a phone booth and emerged as Superman. By the end of the third night, he looked tired and more like Clark Kent.
More:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/23/opinion/gergen-who-will-win/index.html
Summer Hathaway
(2,770 posts)of ever being recognized as someone whose opinion counts at zero.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Which is why I posted it.
And it seems on target with what Nate Silver, Intrade and many of us are seeing as well - a close race, but one in which Obama still retains an edge.
Gergen also states that Obama's ground operation may give him the advantage in the last 2 weeks and there's an interesting paragraph where he quotes a Republican operative who acknowledges how much weaker the Romney machine in Ohio is.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...which is certainly not "on target" with 53% to 47%. Not even close. (And, while it's a bit hard to read Sam Wang's graph, it looks to me like he has Obama's re-elect odds at somewhere between 75% and 80%. Once again, a pretty huge difference.)
pnwmom
(108,995 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)I found this paragraph intriguing.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)I'd put the chances of Gergen acting like a pompous blowhard at 100%.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)The national polling is all very close, aside from the crap from Rasmussen and Gallup. Certain state polls have a small Obama lean. Obama won the last 2 debates. Obama has the slight advantage.