Any polls on Ryan's congressional seat?

[Rosco T.]

Since it's a slim chance he'll have the other job he's wanting.

[JiminyJominy]

1. Been Wondering...

this myself.

Ryan and Bachman. Would love to see polls on both.

[bushisanidiot]

2. That's a great question!

God, i hope ryan loses his senate seat!!

[RudynJack]

3. Guaranteed

He won't win a senate seat.

[ejbr]

7. Now really...

[RudynJack]

8. LOL...

perfect answer. I'm just funnin'

[aletier_v]

4. Ditto. I want that guy working in a kitchen for real

Let him live his philosophy for awhile.

[BlueCaliDem]

10. Zing! Good comeback! eom

[LP2K12]

5. Haven't seen any lately...

However, I have these bookmarked.

An internal poll provided to Salon shows the VP's House challenger trailing by 8 points.

The internal poll, provided to Salon ahead of its release, shows Zerban behind by just 8 points among likely voters when respondents were read a “profile statement” about the candidate. FM3 Research, which conducted the survey, wrote in a memo, “Paul Ryan is not the overwhelming favorite in the 1st Congressional District race … Rob Zerban remains a credible challenger.” After respondents were read the statement, 39 percent indicate they will vote for Zerban, while 47 say they will vote for Ryan. Another 4 percent went for a third-party candidate while 11 percent were undecided.

http://www.salon.com/2012/09/12/poll_ryans_race_closer_than_expected/

Ryan in Lead and Zerban Gaining, 1st District Polling Shows

If the November election for the First Congressional District were held today, Congressman Paul Ryan would probably win, according to new polling data released this week.

But, the numbers also say Democratic challenger Rob Zerban is gaining ground.

The polls were each commissioned by the Ryan and Zerban campaigns, respectively, and were released a day apart. Links to both polls can be found at wispolitics.com.

http://mountpleasant.patch.com/articles/1st-district-polling-shows-ryan-in-lead-zerban-gaining

Interesting, recent article on funds here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/18/1146741/-WI-01-Rob-Zerban-NOT-short-on-cash-Definitely-has-momentum

[progressoid]

6. Last poll I saw he was 8 points ahead but that was a few weeks ago.

And there were still a lot of undecideds.

Edit: looks like that poll is posted above.

[brooklynite]

9. Sorry -- Solid Republican

Bachmann may be at risk, but leadership people like Ryan and Cantor tend to get gerrymander'd districts.

[DarthDem]

11. Not Really, In This Case

Zerban is a good challenger and Ryan's district goes all the way to Racine and Kenosha. There are definitely some Democrats in his district in sizeable numbers. I expect him to win his House seat back (while firmly losing his other bid), but we may all be very surprised. House races are so criminally underpolled that it's hard to predict these things.

[brooklynite]

12. I dont want to sound negative...

...and I've gotten into similar squabbles with supporters here for Wayne Powell vs Eric Cantor. The bottom line is that I track all competitive races with great attention, because my wife and I invest a LOT of cash (> $200K at present) in races that are in play. There are a number of RW kooks that are vulnerable, notably Michele Bachmann and Alan West. This, sadly isn't one of them.

I don't mean to be discouraging from a volunteer standpoint; if you live in the area and can help out, more power to you. It's just that, I've worked for enough losing candidates that I've discovered its better to go into a situation with eyes open to reality. Gerrymandered districts and heavy fundraising are extremely difficult to overcome, and this late in the game, you can generally tell if someone is going to be able to overcome the institutional obstacles. I'm not seeing it here.

[DarthDem]

13. Not a Squabble . . .

. . . and I can assure you that, as a Zerban donor myself, my attention in this case matches or exceeds your own.

As I said, you are likely correct that Ryan will defeat Zerban, but stranger things than a Zerban victory have happened.

However, you are NOT correct that WI-01 is particularly gerrymandered relative to other districts around the country. The criminals in the Wisconsin legislature did try to make it redder by adding more of the Republican-leaning areas of Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties, but post-redistricting analysis showed that what was a 51-48 Obama victory in the district in 2008 would have yielded the same result under the new map.

I understand that you're generalizing to make a point, but the district was not altered significantly and Zerban is Ryan's most credible and well-funded opponent ever at the congressional level.

[Beaverhausen]

14. Here is his challenger's website

http://www.robzerban.com/

donate if you can.

[sorosland64]

15. It's safe

People in Wisconsin split the ballot for Ryan. I think he's around 60%