2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 Updated Again: Obama 73.1%
Well that is a nice surprise.
Electoral Vote
Obama 294.1
Romney 243.9
Odds of Winning
Obama 73.1%
Romney 26.9%
Popular Vote
Obama 50.2%
Romney 48.7%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
aquart
(69,014 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Look at those trend lines
NRaleighLiberal
(60,018 posts)showing Mittster with a 0.9% edge - they must be aggregating some bad polls....
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)I forgot that romney has "momentum". We already lost. Everyone go home.
ffr
(22,671 posts)It's great to see a forecast. It's even better to realize it on 11/07/12.
Keep driving everyone! No quit in me.
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)the numbers will be:
Obama 53%
Romney 47%
Response to DonViejo (Reply #6)
Doctor Jack This message was self-deleted by its author.
BootinUp
(47,177 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)Everything, and I do mean Everything, depends on us getting more people to the polls than they do! We've got tons of work to do people. Don't slack now!
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)God I hate that 'lazy' and complacency crap. Yeah I saw Nate's numbers and figured I would take a nap until Nov. 7th.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)Last edited Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:59 PM - Edit history (1)
Put me on ignore then? Seriously, I hate people over reacting to well intended comments.
Geeze, same team here. I've just seen too much election fraud in my life to become complacent.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)You will see that Obama is in roughly the same position that he was about september 20th. That aint too shabby.
doc03
(35,362 posts)What would be the best estimate of his actual EV total?
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)294.1 is the average over all of those simulations that Obama received.
This graph shows the most common EV over all of the simulations.
doc03
(35,362 posts)you could even come up with 294 EV. If I understand the graph it looks like the
most likely scenario is a little over 330. From that graph it looks like Rmoney has a much more difficult chance or winning than any of the media is claiming. You listen to TV, I mean any channel including MSNBC and it is neck and neck.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Everything would have to fall into place perfectly for him to win and even then it would be the bare minimum. In the next 11 days, he needs to stop Obama's momentum, make up all of the lost ground, and get to the strongest position he has ever been in, in this race. Seems unlikely, to put it mildly.
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)HE claims he is owrth that much. Based on Bain's revenue/assets it's believed he is in fact a billionaire. IF you think about it, it has to be true. No way is he just worth that much.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Colorado=57%
Iowa=68%
Nevada=78%
New Hampshire=69%
Ohio=75%
Virginia=54%
Wisconsin=86%
deepen915
(7 posts)Yeah I see all these polls.. and I am happy.. I'm more worried about some shady election fraud on election day.. ALL OF OUR VOTES BETTER COUNT FOR OBAMA!
KaryninMiami
(3,073 posts)Thank you Nate Silver- tonight you will be the man of my dreams.
Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)
Post removed
Tutonic
(2,522 posts)wisteria
(19,581 posts)It is hard to explain what exactly is going on, but I welcome this nightly update with its sane perspective. I pray he is right on the mark.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)If he has momentum he forgot to tell the states he needs to win about it.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Good for him. I hope that is comforting when he is looking for something to do next year.