2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere is why the "math" argument is disingenuous garbage
Bernie is down by 230 points with 1400 points left to be accumulated.
It is entirely conceivable that Bernie could pick up over 100 delegates in Indiana, Kentucky and Oregon. A 100 point delegate deficit could easily be made up in CA or through a combination of other states.
It is complete and utter garbage that Bernie will be unable to win landslides in future contests, he already has won landslides.
Speaking of Landslides, the reason Hillary has her lead is because she won a few landslides.
To assume landslides aren't possible is a disingenuous argument since both candidates have already won them.
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)30+ in PA alone
Csainvestor
(388 posts)i think he has a good shot at winning PA. Even is he doesn't, i expect Bernie to go on another winning streak after next tuesday. The map looks good for Bernie after Tuesday. I expect Bernie to win almost every single state that is left in the West.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)So far I'm correct. But lets go through it. And remember, everywhere Bernie doesn't win 60-40 (really like 75-25 including Supers) he falls further behind
Bernie win or lose
April 16
CT Loss
DE Loss
MD Loss
PA Loss
RI Loss
May 3
IN Likely loss
May 7
Guam Loss
May 10
WV Loss
May 17
Kentucky Likely loss
Oregon Win
June 4
VI Loss
June 5
PR Loss (probably pretty badly with 60 delegates on the line)
June 7
CA Loss
MT Win
NJ Loss (126 delegates and lose badly)
NM Loss
ND Win
SD likely loss
June 14
DC Loss
Csainvestor
(388 posts)I think that may be another large landslide for Bernie.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)It will be like Rubio in PR this year.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Feb 1
March 24
April 47 = 71. That's math too. Most of these posts seem to be devoted to denying the numbers of experts like, well pretty much all pollsters, statisticians and political scientists, since none of their numbers add up to Inevitability = Sanders Victory.
amborin
(16,631 posts)bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)Thats all it would take...if he can get to around 100 down by CA, he's in good shape.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)She needs 40%; He needs 58% of remaining legitimate delegates (i.e. not counting SDs). That's not a massive difference.
The reason Hillarians are trying to bully us into giving up is that they are scared. They are not as confident as they pretend.
metroins
(2,550 posts)In a proportional race, it is extremely massive.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)You'll feel better for a while.
metroins
(2,550 posts)Csainvestor
(388 posts)I think Hillary will lose in the three states i mentioned, i believe Hillary will lose those three states badly, and Bernie will be able to win almost all of the delegates in those states.
You assume Bernie won't be able to win a landslide going forward, he has won them before, and he will win some more going forward.
Landslide victories aren't that rare, we have already have a few landslides in just this cycle alone.
metroins
(2,550 posts)This entire race everybody knew what was going to happen. Hillary would have a huge lead, then Sanders would win, then Clinton (now) wins again then whatever until California.
Proportional delegate races don't let you close a deficit like that in reality.
Sanders inadequate strategic planning in the beginning is his downfall. He lost the early lead in high delegate minority states and he will not be able to overcome the deficit.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)Now, tell us which states Hillary will win. And remember, Hillary won more votes and delegates in NY alone than Bernie won in the 7 states he won.
Csainvestor
(388 posts)WA hasn't finished allocating delegates yet.
Bernie won at least 74 in WA alone. Hillary won 27 or less.
Bernie should pick up a few more during the second step in the process- so we could be looking at 50 delegates won in just one state for Bernie.
I fully expect similar results in the three states i have mentioned.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)And lose 16?
Csainvestor
(388 posts)I expect Bernie to win at least one state next week. After that, i think Bernie will go on another winning streak.
Bernie will probably sweep the rest of the west. Then it will come do to CA.
I also expect a landslide for Bernie in the Puerto Rico caucus.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Which one(s) ?
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Their M.A.T.H. is actually an acronym for Mythological Assumption That Hillarywillwin.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)For Bernie to pick up over 100 delegates, he'd have to win all three states by more than 50 points.
You think that's realistic?
Does anyone, other than the OP, HA Goodman and Seth Abramson, think that Bernie will win KY, IN and OR by 50 points?
Sid
Csainvestor
(388 posts)it was possible in WA and i expect those states to deliver similar results for Bernie.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Those three states are all primaries, 2 of which are closed to Democrats only.
Sid
Zynx
(21,328 posts)If he wins any of those states aside from Oregon by more than 20 I'll eat my own sock.
Response to Zynx (Reply #34)
Codeine This message was self-deleted by its author.
Response to Codeine (Reply #59)
CompanyFirstSergeant This message was self-deleted by its author.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)I'll bear that in mind.
Response to Codeine (Reply #62)
CompanyFirstSergeant This message was self-deleted by its author.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)so at least you'll remain consistent.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)IN: 83
KY: 55
OR: 61
For a total of 199 delegates. Now let's evaluate this sentence;
What does this mean, that Sanders will simply win 100 delegates or Sanders will net 100 delegates? If it is the former, then those 3 states are a wash, as Clinton would get the other 99. If it is the latter, then you are in serious unicorn & rainbow territory, as he'd have to carry those 3 states by 75%!
The Democrats do not do winner-take-all primaries; short of absolutely rollicking blowouts, Sanders has no realistic path to topping Clinton in pledged delegates.
Math, not #berniemath.
Csainvestor
(388 posts)Bernie picked up 50 more delegates than Hillary in just that one state alone.
I am talking net, Bernie will net tons of delegates over Hillary in those three states. Bernie may very well take all delegates in oregon just like he did in Vermont.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)I just wanna be clear here; you think that Bernie Sanders can take these 3 states by 75%...even 85% for Oregon, giving her a zero there?
This is your belief?
Csainvestor
(388 posts)and i do think he will win oregon in a landslide.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Bookmarking for posterity, too.
Csainvestor
(388 posts)hillary has already won landslides this year, and Bernie has also won landslides this year.
And yes, Bernie will win more landslides this year. Landslide victories aren't rare, as we have seen plenty of landslides this year.
Stop pretending that landslides are rare, they aren't.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Even if he wins, I don't see Bernie winning by a landslide in PENN, CT, Maryland, RI or Delaware.
The math is indeed against Sanders.
But, anything can happen.
I just don't see it happening, sadly.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Being that no Democratic contest is winner take all ... all the contests are proportional, it makes it more difficult to make up the difference.
Being that there is only 1 state and 2 islands left that have caucuses (and only for a total of 32 delegates) means that BS needs to win primaries, something that has been more difficult for him
Many of the primaries are closed (as are 2 of the 3 caucuses) and BS has had more difficulty winning in those states.
When you put all these reasons together, BS doesn't have a prayer.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)Csainvestor
(388 posts)oregon in landslides? He won 50 delegates more than Hillary in WA alone.
She won a landslides in states like texas and mississippi, that is only reason she has an advantage.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)But it's all crumbs on the carpet at this point. He's not going to win. And he's certainly not going to get many super delegates unless he actually gets a majority of the pledged. I guarantee it and I can say that because I've witnessed first-hand the utter hate, vitriol and threats being heaped on the supers on Facebook. If I were a super, all those threats (and in some cases, doxxing of home addresses) would absolutely factor into my willingness to switch. Let's see, I think I'll go with the one who didn't endanger my wife and kids.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)The states where there have been BS blowouts have almost exclusively been in small states and/or states that have not been very diverse. BS is going to run out of states before he ever leads in the pledged delegate count.
Csainvestor
(388 posts)just like he did in nevada.
TimeToEvolve
(303 posts)I REFUSE TO SUPPORT A PLUTOCRAT!
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)YOU DON'T HAVE TO!
YouDig
(2,280 posts)were from caucus states. There's no way he gets anywhere close to the margins he needs in primaries. Especially after he falls further behind next week.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)It's been impossible for him to win since Super Tuesday. In order to pickup 100 delegates just between those three states, he'd have to get 70% in Indiana and Kentucky, while keeping Clinton below viability in Oregon, all of which is highly unlikely to happen.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)It's proportional.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)First of all, 400 delegates are up next week and it looks like Hillary will win the majority of them. That makes her lead even bigger.
Then, even with 20 point wins in the Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky stretch, he'd only pick up 40 delegates. I strongly suspect he doesn't win Kentucky and Indiana by that much, if at all.
Hillary will win Puerto Rico in a huge blow out and probably pick up a net of 20-25 there. Bernie would then have to win CA by a mile to catch up.
The race is over. Deal with it and actually do the math.
Csainvestor
(388 posts)it's a caucus state. And he will win a state or two next week. I also expect him to win landslides where he will make up lost ground.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)TimeToEvolve
(303 posts)the math argument is garbage because: I REFUSE TO VOTE FOR A PLUTOCRAT!
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)A statement like that statement will get you kicked of of DU soon.
TimeToEvolve
(303 posts)i thought this was Democratic underground. not Plutocratic underground.
hillary is a plutocrat wearing a thin, shaky veneer that gives her the image of someone who actually gives a **** about Democracy
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)TimeToEvolve
(303 posts)http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/04/is-538-in-the-bag-for-hillary/
such an argument is also dishonest, rude and above all pretentious.
you'd think that in light of all that has happened with the climate and financial meltdown. a few of the more open minded repubs might switch sides, but they rarely do. i bet quite a few become thoroughly repulsed when stuck-up dingbats like nate silver putting forth such pretentious mercaptan.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Sanders will have trouble winning one of them, just one. Right now he is favored in a single remaining state. And guess what, just to pull even with Hillary in pledged delegates he has to not only win all, he has to win all of them by margins comparable to 16% Hillary beat him in NY.
Possible, yes, but many things are possible which are so improbably that absolutely no one believes they will happen.
Notice that after which was evidently used to reassess his chances, Sanders had toned down his rhetoric on the campaign trail, a sure sign that he knows it's essentially finished.
Get ready for Bernie Sanders to endorse Hillary and ask you to support her and vote for her. I don't expect that to happen until right before the convention, but it will take you that long to get used to the concept.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)In my exchange with the OP above, he thinks Sanders is going to get a shutout (i.e. 85%) in Oregon.
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)is because they are more aware than many Sanders supporters that game is rigged. They knew from the start that the machine would not allow Sanders to win. And we have seen this happen in most of major primaries. Exit polls are off in every place that uses counting machines. Caucuses are only honest way that seem to be because you have group of people watching other so you can not steal the election.
Response to Gwhittey (Reply #50)
CompanyFirstSergeant This message was self-deleted by its author.
msongs
(67,441 posts)LonePirate
(13,431 posts)Clinton won the state in 2008 in a 66-30 blowout. This year, she won border states OH, TN and VA by double digits. She won nearby states AR and NC by double digits. The races in border states IL and MO were essentially ties. Kentucky, politically, is similar to its neighbors to the south, which are nothing but large Clinton victories. So what is it about Kentucky that has you thinking a big Bernie win is in store?
There's little doubt Bernie will rack up a big win in Oregon. A Bernie win of any magnitude in Indiana wouldn't surprise me at all. However, Bernie winning Kentucky, let alone by a massive margin, would be very surprising. What's your rationale here?
Csainvestor
(388 posts)Hillary is Obama in this cycle in KY.
jg10003
(976 posts)This year the DNC scheduled all the southern states early in order to prevent a progressive from gaining ground. The primary schedule was designed to protect Hillary's left flank.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)For sanders to have any appreciable gain into Hilary's lead...especially after next week...