2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs Bernie Sanders another 'flash in the pan"?
Or is he building a "movement" that will survive and challenge the establishment Democratic Party in the future?
What does he plan to do with all the money he has raised and can raise in the future? Other than defeating Hillary in this election, what is his plan?
Is it possible for him to build a new Party?
What does the future hold for Bernie Sanders if he is defeated by Hillary Clinton?
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)He is a good politician, and a great leader in VT.
I don't think we see a new party come from this but there is a political schism and it cannot be ignored forever.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)in the electorate. For decades during an era of conservative dominance too many people sat quietly while our laws and systems were shifted farther and farther right. We finally became angry and alarmed in sufficient numbers to take action in various ways. Among those actions are support for both Obama in 2008 and Sanders and HRC now, which are all evidence of increasing energy and support for Democratic solutions to Republican problems.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)remains to be seen.
Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts)I would bet he either forwards the cash to the Dem Party or does something charitable with it.
Looking at his tax forms you can tell that he isn't in it for the money. He isn't trying to strike it rich.
The man has integrity.
The Movement will probably split. Some will fade away learning the system is rigged probably never to vote again.
Some will become Independent, and some will remain Dems.
Sanders will probably stay in the Senate but I doubt he will be able to forget the Mass Backstabbing by his fellow critters.
In a way, I don't think he cares. This is a man who has always been on the right side for the little guy.
Anyhoo..Off to work now.
Bad Dog
(2,025 posts)It could go either way, if Sanders starts a new party it will help the Republicans, and if Trump starts his own Tea Party it will help the Democrats. God only knows what will happen if they both do it.
Old Codger
(4,205 posts)We would have congress picking our next president and VP
griffi94
(3,733 posts)He could build a new party but that would take years and in the end
it would still be a 3rd party no different than any of the already existing 3rd parties
like the Green Party or the Libertarian Party.
After this election Bernie will go back to the senate.
He'll probably go back to being an Indie
He'll do the same thing he's done the last 20 years. Not much.
The movement will continue among some of his supporters but it's never going
be very significant.
This time next year the majority of his crowds will have moved on to
something else.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)In the last 9 months, the Sanders campaign has changed the hopes and expectations of the Democratic Party - look at the effect he has had on Clinton's policy already. There are 6 months left to go before the GE. He will continue to push the party to regain the integrity it once had before President Clinton steered it away from its core.
40% of his campaign time has yet to come.
He's going to re-claim, re-invigorate and re-align the Democratic Party.
3rd party? If this revolution re-structures money in politics, 3rd parties may not seem so 'fringy' anymore.
So don't go putting this revolution out to pasture.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)When it's not a presidental election year.
When the young memebrs of Team Bernie start taking on more
long term real life responsibilities
When there aren't huge deciisive wins and incrementalism is required
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)This isn't going away, it's been building momentum since Occupy. That never truly went away, they just kinda went into other orgs and also went low-key.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)It won't "Go Away' there's nothing to go and no place to take it.
The fearless keyboard warriors for Bernie will eventually go on to whatever
pet issue they have.
For some it will be enviro for others social justice issues.
Even more of them will just join mainstream real life.
In 10 years time most of the revolutionaries will be dealing with
a whole different set of more immediate real world issues.
Like jobs, spouses, mortgages, kids, soccer practice, and what minivan to buy
This isn't a movement it's a loud angry block party.
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)If you think they'll sell out like so many Baby Boomers and become self-hating materialistic Yuppies who constantly go out and buy trying to fill the hole Consumerism doesn't address you're mistaken. Besides, when it does work, that have to MAKE enough for this to be possible.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)But the majority will.
In a few years they'll be locked into regualr life. They may still pay lip service
but they'll live and work and shop and vote in the mainstream.
Just like every generation of young people have always done.
See most people get busy living and tending their own personal fires.
They don't have the option of staying in a state of perpetual anger for years at a time.
They change as they age and they change radically from college graduation to 30.
They re-prioritize.
Bernie and his revolution aren't even real.
They're just a wish.
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)It crashed shit enough everyone woke up and got angry and one is coming if we're stupid enough to continue economy policy as it currently stands.
We're already starting to get to that magic percentage point of revolution in society which is like 3.7 or 4.9%, can't remember which but one of those or close to it is the magic number. It's under 5% I can say. That's ALL it takes in society to upset the apple cart.
You mean they'll be wage slaves who are enriching a bunch of rentiers who create nothing, who are complete parasites? We're not creating anything truly as a society, we're running on fumes ffs. Sure I try to buy things made here but I really have to go out of my way to make sure it happens and for some sectors it's damn near impossible.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)As long as the TV keeps coming on and the newest phones wire you in.
There's not going to be any revolution.
Hell people don't have the attention span for it.
Most of them won't even vote.
Bernies revolution is a wish.
This time next year it won't even be a blip.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Unless you hold your eyes, cover your ears and shout, "lah-lah-lah!"
All those persons outside that very small range of denial know better, but thanks for playing.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)Edit - oops - is there a way to change which post you are replying to? I keep messing this up.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)How do I know this? I've been out campaigning and talking to people. I've seen live events. I've called countless people and had face-to-face with Dem's Independents and Republicans.
You know, if your eyes lie to you when you see these huge crowds that show up with a few days notice for Sanders when compared to HRC's events, most of which are closed for high income individuals to donate big money, you'll soon understand that number of people and dollars from average Sanders donors are out-spending HRC... even with all that corporate media forming a wall as big as the one Drumpf wants between us and Mexico.
The great majority of EVERY conversation I've had across the spectrum DO NOT WANT HER.... DO NOT TRUST HER, and they do this not in a flippent way. Many may have wanted her at one time, as I had, but NO ONE BELIEVES SHE IS HONEST.
So, no... I do NOT want Clinton to win, which is not a surprise... The real news, at least to you here is that the majority of the voters going into the general election (after all the caucuses, closed primaries, and voter surpression within each state) DON'T WANT HER, EITHER.
I've BEEN listening, I've BEEN walking... I've BEEN politically active... and I've BEEN getting out the vote to hear this comments as recently in a swing state as this past week.
You're going to have to start listening and taking the blinders off. Crony capitalism won't pull off a win for her, but the people will for Sanders. Don't like my commentary? Then look at the polls that update how Sanders does far better in beating every single Republican. Look at the number of issues Sanders continues to address frankly and honestly.
There's no time like the present for you to start listening.
Maru Kitteh
(28,343 posts)Bernie lost because not as many people voted for him.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)How many people voted for Clinton on a provisional ballot that didn't get counted?
Maru Kitteh
(28,343 posts)entertained, Hillary remains ahead by millions of votes. Of course they would not be though, and it would seem almost child-like to believe that they were.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)Sorry but so far this isnt a movement. It's more like a block party.
A movement was the fight for civil rights.
Another movement was the fight for LGBT rights.
Both of those movements took decades and they're still having to fight.
The biggest demographic in the Bernie movement is young voters
but they're not going to stay young.
in 5-10 years most of their issues & priorities will have changed
to jobs, families, mortgages and all that.
Remember the same people at the 68 Chicago convention are the ones
who later voted in Reagan 12 years later and 16 years later gave him
a 49 state landslide.
brush
(53,918 posts)The Chicago convention attendees/rioters were and are a part of the dichotomy of the boomer generation.
The other half were the young repugs on college campuses of the time. They were the ones who voted in Reagan.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)My point was more that when the liberal youth of the late 60s
got to the 80s a lot of their priorities had changed.
Happily some didn't change. They did stay pretty good on womens rights and civil rights
altho I would also say that's because the bedrock of those movements kept up and in fact are still
keeping up that fight.
brush
(53,918 posts)brush
(53,918 posts)Blanks
(4,835 posts)Remember Ross Perot? He got 15% of the vote.
Bernie has said he won't run as s third party candidate because it'll help the republicans. He wouldn't draw 15% on the national scene.
That was Perot firing up the Reform party. Nobody talks about that at all (that I've seen) so I'm gonna go with 'Flash in the pan'.
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)Svafa
(594 posts)Sanders gave them a distinct platform and leader. They are not going away, regardless of what happens in July.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)But the movement won't ever draw enough support to do much more than
make some noise every few years.
The occupy movement hasn't been very visible to mainstream Americans in last several years.
Sanders didn't give them a platform so much as he gave them a bullhorn
and after tomorrow his flame will fade at an excellerated rate of speed.
Huge rallies of angry unorganized unfocused people aren't really a movement.
Womens rights
Civil rights
LGBT rights
Those are movements. Those movements have unceasingly pushed that boulder for decades.
They've endured lots of setbacks and remained focused on reaching their goals. One step at a time.
Bernies revolution is a lot of pissed off people who aren't even all pissed off at the same thing.
They want everything right now. Or else.
As Skakespeare would say.
"It's a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Svafa
(594 posts)have had an impact? They already have had a serious impact on things, and I think this movement is really just getting started. Would we have ever been talking about the power of the 1% and the stranglehold that corporations and monied interests have on our government if not for the Occupy Movement and Sanders candidacy? You are thinking on too short-term a scale. Revolutions take time. But it is happening.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)They're noisy, they're really angry.
But when Bernie goes back to Vermont and the rallies stop
the revolution will peter out.
As i've stated in other posts.
The majority of Team Bernie will get sucked into real life.
Jobs, kids, spouses, house payments, minivans.
It's always been that way.
If you were right it would have changed already.
The number of people in this country who Vote has been and still is abysmal.
The people who care enough to actually vote is a minority of Americans.
Team Bernie is a really small minority within that minority.
BeyondGeography
(39,384 posts)He's not a flash in the pan because he has shown a prodigious ability to raise money. Others will try to follow his example if only for that reason alone. Of course, his authenticity will be difficult to match, as will another source of the funding: the desperation that many of his contributors felt to find an alternative to HRC. But more Berniecrats like Zephyr Teachout (who was one before the term existed) in my home state will be encouraged to follow his example, or, as in her case, continue following their own anti-corruption instincts. Lots more, IMO.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)I would expect the next nominee to sound more like Bernie than Hillary
I expect Bernie to remain in the Senate and use his voice to rally support on certian issues and to support certian candidates.
I'm not certian what can legally be done with the campaign money. He could give it away to everyone that worked on his campaign if he wanted to.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)agree with above poster - he will be back in the Senate enjoying his independence.
A "revolution" built on keyboard warriors is not long for the world.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)Last edited Mon Apr 25, 2016, 08:05 AM - Edit history (1)
No more of these time consuming small donations!
Study: US is an oligarchy, not a democracy
Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organised groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
In English: the wealthy few move policy, while the average American has little power.
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27074746
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Human101948
(3,457 posts)The fact is that Hillary says something vague about a Constitutional amendment knowing full well that it will be decades away if ever. Meanwhile she is using the system as skilfully as any other politician in any party. And now we know that the "down ticket" funding was mainly a scheme to fund her PAC (no coordination there of course!). That is the essence of what Citizens United and our corrupt (but legal!) system is all about.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)isn't long for this world either.
The anger fades or finds a new target.
Those youths keep aging and in 5 years are so they have the same real life issues as everybody else.
Jobs, kids, bills, families.
As I like to point out, 12 years after the 68 Chicago convention Reagan won in a landslide.
Real movements last decades and don't pack it in when they suffer setbacks
or when they win small instead of large victories.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)it took 20 years of small legislative wins to get the SS Act passed in 1935. It was not a large, overnight victory.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)They're angry and loud.
But they're also unorganized and unfocused.
Look at the fiasco in NY because they didn't re-register or register as Democrats and so they
couldn't vote in the primary.
Any real successful movemnet took decades and in fact are still fighting to hold on to
they progress they've made.
Team Bernies positions seems to be "We're angry. Give us everything we want and right now or we'll
continue to show our anger by being really loud"
Labor movement took years and is still having to fight same with civil rights, womens rights
LGBT rights.
Those groups organized and stayed focused and took every small victory that they could until the tipping point
was reached and then they started having bigger victories.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)they need to get over that thinking and face the realities you point out in your last paragraph.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Human101948
(3,457 posts)Study: US is an oligarchy, not a democracy
Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organised groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
In English: the wealthy few move policy, while the average American has little power.
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27074746
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)kentuck
(111,110 posts)I wish Bernie would start a new democracy "foundation" of some sort, that could raise money and help progressive candidates that wish to run for office.
I do not think he is going to win this election. The system has become so rigged that "independents" are no longer considerate legitimate Americans and are prohibited from voting in a lot of places. Unless you are a Democratic or Republican American, you do not qualify to vote.
Perhaps this should be Bernie's base? I would like to see his message carried on in some manner or other. Bernie is not getting any younger. He must have young people volunteer to carry the torch.
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Set up a progressive foundation to work for the election of progressive candidates over the long term.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)She is steadily losing voters as the race goes on. Trump will move to the middle and pick up some left-leaning positions. Then what?
If she manages to beat him, how many House and Senate seats will we lose in 2018?
"Awful legacy":
http://www.britannica.com/topic/1994-midterm-Elections-616578
brush
(53,918 posts)She just won a near-landslide in NY and has huge leads in the next two big states, PA and MD, who vote tommorrow.
How can you possibly state such misinformation?
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)Last edited Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:51 PM - Edit history (1)
Clinton's Image Among Democrats at New Low (4/14/16)
Thanks for asking!
ETA Link: http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/190787/clinton-image-among-democrats-new-low.aspx
brush
(53,918 posts)You know there are several state primaries tomorrow, right?
Sanders will lose big tomorrow as well.
Let's see how relevant your charts and graphs are then.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)the same questions as thousands of others periodically. Then they aggregate the data and graph it over time. It is a fascinating process which is done frequently here on the world of planet Earth. People who look for facts seek out such things.
brush
(53,918 posts)Those are the real polls.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)It may make you uncomfortable to see Hillary's declining poll numbers but that doesn't make them any less real.
As for election results....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-greenberg/polldefying-pattern-predi_b_9434118.html
brush
(53,918 posts)Election results are what count.
Talk to us tomorrow after Sanders' big losses and tell what your charts predicted.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)Those are favorability ratings.
Hillary is leading all candidates in both parties in number of votes.
So people may tell Gallup that they have an unfavorable opinion of her
but they're voting for her anyway.
Has been from the first.
MineralMan
(146,336 posts)It's an old term from the days of flintlock firearms. The "pan" was a small rimmed shelf next to the barrel, where a small amount of gunpowder was placed. When the flint made a spark as the trigger was pulled, it ignited that powder which, in turn, ignited the powder in the breech of the barrel, through a tiny hole, to fire the weapon.
A "flash in the pan" is a misfire. The powder in the pan ignites, but does not ignite the powder in the breech of the barrel. Instead of firing, there was only a "flash in the pan."
It was a fairly frequent thing, often due a clogged passage into the breech. In any case, a "flash in the pan" made some smoke, but the firearm didn't send a bullet toward the target. It's a pretty apt description of Bernie Sanders' campaign, I think.
I know that you know that, kentuck, but I'm not sure everyone does.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Orsino
(37,428 posts)I see Sanders as an effect, not a cause.
His campaign isn't a cult of personality; he simply recognized a growing hunger for the sort of progress he's long advocated. I suppose it's possible that a Sanders loss could demoralize his supporters in some major way, but the issues on which he is campaigning are only becoming more urgent. It seems much more likely that the movement will continue to grow, exerting more pressure on Establishment figures until we get the change we desperately need.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)The ballot is not the way. There is a danger in that...but I have accepted it
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)one way or another.
LuvLoogie
(7,040 posts)It will join in Democratic Solidarity for the long run. Whether Bernie remains a Democrat is up in the air. Warren is a Democrat. That's were The Revolution started.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)And the streets of occupy.
Jesus this lack of self awareness should be stunning, but is not anymore
LuvLoogie
(7,040 posts)The unaffiliated, uncommitted, all-or-nothing Left. Occupy was a protest. There is no committed slate of nuts and bolts operatives.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Truly adorable. Continue to discount this. It will be best. Thst way you can pretend to be surprised. You should read Kennedy's inaugural. It currently applies to the United States.
Myself. This will be fun, like a root canal, but will be fun.
brush
(53,918 posts)in 2009 about?
And btw, Berkeley is spelled with two "e"s.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)that an Occupy are markers of where we are
OWS was independent of Berkeley... which had a lot to do with the full set of protests in both the UC and State systems... they are part organically of other student protests.
Some of the OWS folks are veterans of those earlier protests.
We are building towards something not unprecedented, just that not in most basic textbooks.
And it is a good question on how "peaceful" this will remain over the next decade or two,. But as long as the MC and working classes continue to be studiously ignored the pressure will build... and we have been here before.
The added bonus is climate change right now, which is unprecedented.
But as of now, after HRC got endorsed by Charles Koch, as much as she will refuse it, the process is complete. Enjoy your business friendly, chamber of commerce conservative party. I was at least hoping the fiction would go on for another cycle.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Why the hell should they vote? This is the exact conclusion people are reaching.
There are two problems with that.
1.- If peaceful revolutions, that is what elections are, are not allowed, what is your other choice? Careful, people have less and less to lose
2.- The government loses legitimacy.
But you keep chuckling about this ok
uponit7771
(90,367 posts)brooklynite
(94,757 posts)Nothing in his background suggests he wants to create a formal third Party.
bigtree
(86,006 posts)...to continue his 'revolution' he'll need to accomplish what he could not in this campaign; to generate support among his peers to actually transform his agenda from agitation to action.
He'll also need to learn to work with President Clinton as a leader and not as an adversary.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)The elites are not listening. But Bernie (and trump) are just one more signpost thst has been ongoing now for years. They just get more intense every time. And if the peaceful change is not allowed, people have less and less to lose.
For those idiots who don't remember history, or better yet never learned it, 1776 was the last step of a multigenerational process. That is the American example. There are others around the world.
So no, it is not a flash in the pan. It might be however, the point people conclude elections are so corrupt that effective change will not come through the ballot. (And that goes for both parties.)
uponit7771
(90,367 posts)... it doesn't work with the poor cause they're already economically insecure.
We'll see if Sanders revolution isn't just a dogmatic bunch of talk, it matters what he does after the election if he's not the nom
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)But you will learn...sooner or later.
And conservadems who stopped this change peacefully will learn as well. Climate change will accelerate the process, and this is not an American phenomena, but rather global.
History will get rather bumpy over the next decades.
And do enjoy the new party of business and Wall Street, the Democrats
uponit7771
(90,367 posts)... if its not about Sanders then it'll last way past the general into a congress that'll get some progressive shit done.
Right now I hear and see a bunch of CamPlaingers (not my word) ... people who complaign a lot and do very little in the way of getting people elected in to office.
Sanders voted for the CFMA, legisilation that had a far greater effect on the 08 crash than Steagal could have seeing GS didn't affect pre crash IBs.
I don't see Sanders keeping Wall Street influence out of his leadership seeing he's voted for its influence in the past
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)But do enjoy being a member of a conservative business friendly party. That is the Democratic Party. Conservadems won. Enjoy your victory. History will move on, and people will continue to demand change. Kennedy comes to mind. Those who prevent peaceful revolutions, ensure the violent kind. This started well before this cycle or Sanders.
So do enjoy. You are now part of a Conservative party. Proof in the pudding. When the Koch brothers like your standard bearer, the realignment is complete, even if she "rejects" it, this will take a little time, but people will, notice the completeness of the process. Don't worry the FDR former Dems" will be replaced by the chamber of commerce types.
So enjoy your new party.
Myself I will chuckle. The abject failure of the political system to respond to the middle class is what oligarchies are. Well, oligarchies do come to an end sooner or later.
Oh and your lack of understanding of basic social science data is rather conservative in nature as well.
0rganism
(23,974 posts)he's already had a significant impact, even assuming he doesn't get the nomination.
the economic policies of the new centrist Democratic party are very much in play; it'll be decided by resolution to the tension between SBS's populism and the vagrant banksters from the Republican party who will be looking for a place in the new Democratic party. SBS can be hugely influential to the way things proceed, but he'll need to do it within the new Democratic party.
if he goes off on his own and tries to energize the Greens or the Socialist Workers Party, he'll only marginalize his own positions. the currents of the mainstream will be too strong for a small party to flourish, as the racist holdouts in the party formerly known as Republican are about to discover.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)We did have a single party for a while and it was not good for the country. Though some positives did come out.
0rganism
(23,974 posts)especially for social policy. women, ethnic, religious, racial, and sexual minorities, all are positioned to see significant benefits.
eventually, a strong rival will emerge, but it will take at least a decade.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)The fact that he's gotten this far suggests that there are a great many more of us than I had ever dreamed.
What does the future hold for Bernie? I think the bigger point is what it holds for his supporters.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)This is a signpost in a far longer process
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It is simply a theme to sell to certain groups. Just like most all campaign themes.
yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)He will never last.
kentuck
(111,110 posts)Obama did it with the Internet, with discussion groups like DU and others, and raised record amounts of money.
Bernie has done it with Facebook. He is all over the somewhat-new media. He also has raised record amounts of money. He actually out-raised Hillary the last two months.
What will it be the next time around?
Unicorn
(424 posts)Yes, he is building a movement. He needs to direct us millions following him to the next party and not the Democratic Party if he doesn't get the Nom. If he says go Democrat and support Hillary he will get a thanks but no thanks from the enlightened masses who follow him.
Unicorn
(424 posts)DJ13
(23,671 posts)gollygee
(22,336 posts)Millenials are very progressive, and Bernie is the first of what I think will become normal. We'll see more and more very progressive candidates, and they'll do better and better as time goes on.