Donald Trump can actually beat Hillary in November: Stubborn pundits still refuse to accept it

[marmar]

from Salon:


Donald Trump can actually beat Hillary in November: Stubborn pundits still refuse to accept it
Polls have Hillary beating Trump in swing states, but the billionaire is far more popular than we'd like to believe

Sean Illing


Pundits are paid to pretend they know things. But we have no special insight, no higher claims to truth. We’re wrong as much as we’re right, if not more so. Sometimes it’s clear what will happen, often it’s not. In the case of Trump, everyone – myself included – got it wrong.

When Trump descended preposterously from that escalator and announced he was running for president, we all giggled. Trump? President? Seriously? And yet all the polls suggested that he had real traction. But we assumed his star would fade. Then he started winning primaries – by massive margins. We downplayed it. Then he made one gaffe after another – insulting John McCain’s military service, hurling a menstruation jab at Megyn Kelly, calling Mexicans “rapists” and “criminals,” promising to ban all Muslims from entering the country. He even vicariously called Ted Cruz a “pussy.”

None of it mattered. Trump is now on track to receive the most primary votes in the history of the Republican Party. Let that sink in for a moment.

The political class is experiencing a collective cognitive dissonance: We just can’t quite believe this is happening. And yet it is happening – right now, in front of our faces. Barring something extraordinary, Trump will be the Republican nominee. Will he win the general election? Probably not. But he absolutely could win, and willing ourselves to ignorance won’t make it any less likely.

.....(snip).....

The truth is that Trump is far more popular than we’d like to believe. A recent NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll, for example, showed that Trump reached 50 percent approval among Republicans and Republican-leaners nationally for the first time since the poll started tracking in late December. He’s trending upwards, in other words.

As for this claim that there aren’t enough “xenophobic, angry white” people to elect Trump, well, that’s not so clear either. This is likely the case, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Take Trump’s outrageous comments about banning Muslims. Such an obscene and unconstitutional position ought to sink his campaign. However, as Byron York noted this week, take a look at the exit polls from recent Republican primaries. Voters aren’t just sympathetic to Trump’s proposal – they support it overwhelmingly. 69 percent of GOP voters in Pennsylvania said they agree with Trump. The number was 68 percent in New York; 69 percent in Wisconsin; 64 percent in Florida; 68 percent in Georgia; 65 percent in Ohio; and 65 percent in New Hampshire. These numbers will be significantly lower in a general election, but they’re high enough to dim the excitement of anyone who thinks Trump’s xenophobia is a deal-breaker. ......................(more)

http://www.salon.com/2016/04/29/donald_trump_can_actually_beat_hillary_in_november_stubborn_pundits_still_refuse_to_accept_it/

[Trust Buster]

1. Same can be said of a Sanders nomination. Needless to say, I disagree with Salon again.

[jane123]

4. The difference with Sanders is that he attracts the vast

majority of independents and some republicans...something that Hillary will be unable to do in numbers that will matter.

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. No ...

Bernie does not attract the vast majority of independents, that would be trump.

[Baobab]

25. Kaisch does better than Trump against Clinton, Sanders really does well- landslide territory

kaisch v. clinton (kaisch wins)


trump v. clinton (clinton wins narrowly)


trump v. sanders (sanders wins by wide margin)


kaisch v. sanders (sanders wins by narrower margin)

[MFM008]

55. Kasich will never get a chance

and the landslide will go to Clinton.

[larkrake]

28. that isnt true. Indys hate trump

[1StrongBlackMan]

44. Okay. ou are incorrect; but, okay.

[HooptieWagon]

52. Sanders gets 67% of Independants vs. Trump. Clinton gets 33%

Clinton badly loses Independants, 42% of registered voters.
Democrats who assume Clinton will roll over Trump in a landslide are counting their chickens before they're hatched, and seriously underestimating Trump and Republicans.

[CorkySt.Clair]

17. Another key difference

Sanders is not going to be the nominee.

[northernsouthern]

27. Lol...

...you know that is the point of the article right?

[randr]

2. Hillary is delusional if she thinks the recent polls are reflecting reality

Old models of voter trends will not work in the upcoming election. Trump has swayed many numbers of Blue Dogs and drawn a large number of non-voters into his fold. They are rabid and will take advantage of every dirty trick in the book including placing his skin head bikers at polling places.
Media complicity include the recent polling that gives Hillary a "landslide victory"; this only serves to keep voters away thinking their vote is not needed.
Trump and his minions are far more dangerous than anyone has put forth so far and I do not expect him to be called out for any lies between now and election day.

[Lurks Often]

3. It's going to boil down to who the average voter hate more

and automatically thinking they'll hate Trump more borders on delusional.

It is going to be a very nasty election season and there will be plenty of money spent on attack ads.

[yourpaljoey]

5. She will be shredded like a lettuce

Trump works on the end game while Hill is fetchin' and steppin'
in search of a platform. Meanwhile she has some alibis to sync-up before the
FBI grills them. The center cannot hold.

[djean111]

6. Here in Florida (Tampa area), I see Bernie stickers and Trump stickers.

I even see old Romney stickers. Never anything that says Hillary.

And if I bring up the election - first thing anyone says is usually "Not Hillary" "I do not like Hillary", and variations on that theme.
The young who are new to the process - not only do they know the issues, and experience the effects first hand - they will not vote for Hillary. Yeah, her supporters showed up at the primaries, and whether or not there was fucking around with the votes - those supporters are not enough for the GE.

[CorkySt.Clair]

20. Your political instincts are terrible.

[NCTraveler]

40. I live in the Tampa Bay Area.

I'm on the road here seven days a week. There are very few stickers supporting anyone out there. The most stickers out there are Obama/Biden by far. The area also voted heavy Clinton.

[NCTraveler]

41. Hillsborough: Clinton 63 Sanders 35

Pinellas: Clinton 60 Sanders 37

And anyone who has lived in the Tampa area for a day knows a majority of our independents are hard righ.

[NurseJackie]

7. And this helps Bernie, how? What does it change?

Yet another foot-stomping "you were warned" ... "don't come crying to me" post.

On the bright side, even though you haven't yet fully accepted and made peace with the fact that Hillary will be our party's nominee, you're at least acknowledging the reality instead of outright denying it.

I call that progress.

[Baobab]

49. Would you go along with globalizing your profession, nursing?

because it likely will lower wages in the US a lot. Teaching and many other high skill professions too. Thats what the FTAs are pushing for. Read the last link in my sig.

Health care and education are likely to see huge changes that will hurt Americans working in those professions by allowing staffing firms to bring in subcontractors from other English speaking, low wage countries en masse under L-1 visas. When Hillary talks about building infrastructure that is what she means there too. Not employing Americans. Jobs in the US and employing Americans are separate and unrelated things under these deals. Countries are not allowed to preferentially hire their own firms (and by extention, nationals.)

The many newly privatized jobs likely will only go to US firms if US firms are the winning low bidders. Which would require them to automate. (not applicable in nursing and teaching yet but somewhat applicable in construction. ) Look at the changes taking place in government procurement around the world in response to globalization. The Middle East is probably the farthest along that path.

This has been in the pipeline for 20 years, negotiations have been going on for 20 years, its not some little piddly thing.

You should be asking, why and how did they hide this.

[beachbumbob]

8. Hopeful wishing for a trump victory....

I be glad to place wager on this....

[pressbox69]

9. Hillary will make her stand

but if it comes down to Hillary vs. Donald, tRump will fold.

[MisterP]

23. Coakley! Coakley! Coakley!

[1StrongBlackMan]

10. I didn't read the article past ...

Donald Trump can actually beat Hillary in November: Stubborn pundits still refuse to accept it
Polls have Hillary beating Trump in swing states,

So, apparently, stubborn voters still refuse to accept it, too!

I don't go to Salon much ... I really only read its articles when they are posted to DU. Based on what I'm seeing, is Salon in love with trump? Or, are DUers just selecting trump love letters for posting to DU?

[marmar]

11. "Or, are DUers just selecting trump love letters"

Don't know exactly what you're insinuating here, but I'll give you a mulligan and just assume you're just posting some random thought.

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. I'm not insinuating anything. I'm saying ...

over the last few days I've seen an uptick in "trump can/will beat HRC in the G/E" articles, even articles advocating for Democrats vote for trump ... and it appears that all/most of these articles are taken from Salon.

Can I pocket the mulligan and use it if I put one in the woods?

[SFnomad]

19. I don't think he's "insinuating" anything, he's quite clear

The BS cheerleaders are going hog wild posting thread after thread that shows how just great tRump will do in the general election as compared to Secretary Clinton. They're also posting any thread that shows a negative light on Secretary Clinton, like ... imminent indictment, BS cheerleaders taking their purity ball and going home, weight gain, bad pantsuit colors ... whatever.

Basically, if the BS cheerleaders can't get their candidate, they're going to Bern the House Down on the way out.

[marmar]

21. "BS cheerleaders"

Perhaps a little self-reflection is in order, n'est-ce pas?

[SFnomad]

22. No need for self-reflection

There are Sanders supporters and then there are BS cheerleaders.

Back in 2008, Clinton had her share of supporters and cheerleaders as well ... and when it became clear that Clinton wasn't going to be the nominee, the supporters worked for the party, the cheerleaders became bitter irrelevant PUMAs.

[silvershadow]

31. Well evidently it is working because the "presumptive nominee" of March of 2015 still hasn't

closed the deal, and time is getting late....

[DCBob]

12. The media will be relentlessly pushing Trump on us to make it appear we have a horserace.

They need the eyeballs. A "boring" blowout by Hillary doesn't sell many adverts.

[B Calm]

39. The media has been underestimating Trump since he announced he was running.

[DCBob]

42. No doubt but they gave him credibility by following him around nearly non-stop.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/07/20/why-is-trump-surging-blame-the-media/

They will do the same during the general to ensure we have a horserace.

[sufrommich]

18. Yep. A predictable pivot I'd say. nt

[Babel_17]

16. Trump has attempted to take a page from Machiavelli

It was a crude, stumbling, and despicable, effort, but it was Machiavellian.

Severities should be dealt out all at once, so that their suddenness may give less offense; benefits ought to be handed ought drop by drop, so that they may be relished the more.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/n/niccolo_machiavelli.html

Trump sounding less deranged, and moving to the center, will get some approving notice. Clinton moving to the center will get some disapproving notice.

[Jitter65]

24. I am sure many BS supporters here will work hard to make that happen. nt

[Garrett78]

26. Trump's success is a reflection of the state of the Republican Party.

Not an indication that he'll be successful in November. Sure, a disturbingly large number of folks will vote for him. But the chance of him getting to 270 electoral votes is slim, and that's putting it mildly.

[DJ13]

29. Most here seem to forget

Until he thought of running for President Trump was actually a democrat for years and years.

With the right campaign guidance he could easily pivot back into a platform that could lure moderates away from Hillary.

Hillary really needs to take Sanders platform and turn it into her own (and MEAN IT) in order to give the voters a clear choice, otherwise we could end up with a GOP candidate to the left of ours.

That wouldnt be good, would it?

[onenote]

30. As always, polls only reflect reality if they support one's position.

Or so it seems.

[Onlooker]

32. He could probably beat Bernie more easily

Donald Trump may be able to beat Hillary, but he'd beat up on Bernie. Trump's anti-establishment credentials weaken Bernie's core message, Trump's militarism and promise of lower taxes will appeal to many, and Trump's relatively moderate views will appeal to the women who think the Bernie campaign has a sexist edge.

The belief that Bernie is a strong candidate against the Republicans is simply the illusion that comes with the fact the Republicans aren't attacking him because they think with his promises of higher taxes and socialism, he'll be easier to beat.

[Kentonio]

33. No-one thinks Bernie's campaign is more sexist than Trumps

That is utterly and completely ridiculous.

[Onlooker]

34. Just as some Bernie supporters won't back Hillary ...

Some Hillary supporters won't back Bernie because of all the sexist attacks by his mostly white male supporters and the feeling that Bernie would have taken away a historic opportunity. They might not vote for trump either.

[joshcryer]

35. This is the epitome of clickbait.

I won't be giving that author a single click.

[marmar]

36. Thanks for the kick though

[joshcryer]

37. Wasn't really me.

It was at the top of the forum. I wouldn't have even responded otherwise.

[pampango]

38. No one should take Trump lightly. RW demagogues can be awesome campaigners. Offering up scapegoats

rather than actual solutions is a great way to rally the base and more.

As for this claim that there aren’t enough “xenophobic, angry white” people to elect Trump, well, that’s not so clear either. This is likely the case, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Trump will either prove or disprove the republican 'post mortem' analysis of the 2012 election that they cannot win with white votes alone and that they have to quit alienating large proportions of women and minority groups. Trump is trying to prove them wrong and should not be underestimated. If he implodes that is great but we can not proceed assuming that will be the case.

It will be interesting, and scary, to see if the Donald can win one last election for the white team. Of course, since demography will still be against the GOP in the long run, what will President Trump do to try to reverse demographic trends or minimize their electoral consequences?

[forjusticethunders]

43. Can Trump win 70% of the white male vote?

Because that's what he HAS to get to have a shot, in order to compensate for getting maybe 10% of the non-white vote and probably doing worse than Romney with white women.

But then

>linking to Salon

[onenote]

45. People overestimate Trump's appeal

Almost every republican I know has said that, if Trump is the nominee, they will (1) not cast any vote for President or write in a vote if possible. While I personally can't think of a time when I've ever agreed with George Will, the reality is that he has influence with a significant sector of the repub electorate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/if-trump-is-nominated-the-gop-must-keep-him-out-of-the-white-house/2016/04/29/293f7f94-0d9d-11e6-8ab8-9ad050f76d7d_story.html

[sufrommich]

46. "As for this claim that there aren’t enough “xenophobic, angry white” people

to elect Trump, well, that’s not so clear either."


Well, except that it's so clear that even the GOP knows it.

[amborin]

47. Trump can easily beat HRC

[Yurovsky]

48. She's barely beating Bernie, who hasn't taken a swing at her...

Trump has BILLIONS to not only take swings, but to absolutely nuke HRC.

Not saying Trump wins, but the DUers who dismiss Trump out of their own personal dislike for him (which I share), are really locked in the HRC Echo-chamber.

[amborin]

50. David Axelrod called T a "sheep in wolf's clothing" who can switch back and forth

and totally destabilize HRC.

Trump is a pacifist and HRC is a reckless regime change-loving neo con.

Trump has her on that alone. Her top donor, Saban, hates Muslims. She has already
voted many times for a border wall, and wants to send innocent children back to
the violence that she had a huge role in creating. Etc.

[Kilgore]

51. Don't underestimate Trump

Doing do is at your own peril.

[RandySF]

53. .

[PATRICK]

54. Pundits are doubling down

on traditional hardcore political realities- which could change overnight due to a crash in the economy for example, but regardless of all that and how much of a wild card chance Trump has, there are only two people that can stop a Clinton win in November, Hillary or Donald. I think a lot of smart people can script a victory for Trump but little changes in a candidate's overall weakness.

Donald is too big an egotist and overwhelmed ignoramus(an insulting word but rather too accurate to go back to my Thesaurus) to take a very easy possible direction, much less make it stick in a debate without blowing it. In this he ONLY has the advantage of the press supporting the "contest" and their partiality to ignorance in general. This right away undermines any deals any kingmakers or groups might make as they get sucked down by the vortex of a deflating demagogue's blimp. Him they can't trust.

HRC is stable, whatever anyone's beef is with what she is stable about including sticky negativity in her ratings. She starts topping that or gets suckered into arrogance- or desperation then she still would have hard work to do to destroy her chances. Worse candidates than her(I mean in position and appeal) have learned to dig in and win.

Politics is sometimes less stable than war but it seems at the moment she cannot lose unless Trump suddenly "transforms" and convinces those who count(the votes) of a number of key things, like reigning in the rhetoric. of course this will not happen until Trump is in THE position to dictate terms to the GOP. His current demagoguery MIGHT work better in the fall with the general voting public for various reasons, but it is partly because it is a sure thing as of now that he can't succeed that they want to drive him down further. If they thought he had a chance the cravens would be a little more cagey. Not so with Sanders who scares their pockets too much ever to stop criticizing him- and knowing he is not vengeful to our wise and impartial corporate funded critics.

But why should we be biting our nails along with GOP? Why does someone like that have to be the alternate choice and a possible winner for a critical position in world history? Even among the shameless and utterly disgraced GOP is party suicide with or without Trump their only option? No the GOP "Third way" might be for once to shift everything away from the presidency to downticket with some equally massive display of money and hypocrisy. Duck paddling away from the Event Horizon of the Mouth.

Pretty much firm in this (current) estimate by the Trump's recently attempted foreign policy speech- which only a GOP candidate would ever get a second chance to repair.