Why Hillary Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to the Math

[imagine2015]

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention
By John Laurits -
April 29, 2016

It has even become something of a weekly occurrence for Hillary Clinton and her Wallstreet-backed campaign to imply, insinuate, or flat-out demand that Sanders withdraw his bid for the nomination — they are growing increasingly indignant about the fact that Sanders is trying to win. Which brings us to the heart of the issue — can Bernie Sanders–can we–win the delegates needed for the nomination?

The answer to this question is as simple as it is misleading — No. No, my friends, we cannot. And yet–! And yet, neither can Hillary Clinton — and I am going to show you what the media is willfully hiding from you. I am going to show you why, using the one thing that even the media can’t hide: Math.

Why Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of “Sanders! Sanders!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?


And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

Read the full article including the real math used in the article at:
http://www.nationofchange.org/news/2016/04/29/will-happen-democratic-convention/

[SFnomad]

1. 2156 vs. 1412 n/t

[morningfog]

20. 1,665 to 1,370.

[SFnomad]

22. You can hang on to your delusions ... it's just going to be harder on you later

Secretary Clinton will be nominated as the Democratic Candidate for President on the first ballot.

[morningfog]

25. No delusion here, don't you worry yourself.

[SFnomad]

26. I'm not worried ... I'm looking forward to Secretary Clinton beating tRump n/t

[stopbush]

2. Incredibly delusional article.

Look, it's simple: you need to win the most delegates, including the supers. All of the delegates vote at the same time on the first ballot at the convention. Unless Sanders can flip hundreds of Hillary's supers before the first ballot, it's over. Why would Clinton supers flip when the polls show her destroying Trump in the GE and propelling the Ds back into controlling the Senate?

These kind of fantasy articles don't help anyone, least of all Sanders supporters.

[Democratic Divo]

3. More of that #Berniemath?

[hedda_foil]

21. Okay, I gotta admit it. That's hilarious!

[SFnomad]

23. Multiply that by how much birds like him ...

[RandySF]

4. They rally by the tens of thousands

While Hillary leads by millions.

[imagine2015]

6. What is she leading by millions? Closed primaries where independents can't vote.

That won't do it in the general election.

Even most registered Democrats won't vote for Hillary in the General Election. They sure didn't in the primaries.

[SFnomad]

24. Secretary Clinton has the most votes of ANY presidential candidate ... D or R

And you're going to continue with crap like this? And you wonder why Clinton supporters don't have any respect for you people.

[Lisa0825]

5. So much delusion in this article.

I understand being disappointed. I was a big Deaniac. I was about 20 feet from him during the "Dean Scream." But I accepted reality when it was clear he would lose. I never ventured into delusion.

[imagine2015]

7. I also thought Dean was as fraud along with Hillary. Bernie isn't. He's the real deal.

That scream made me think that perhaps he was a little bit off his rocker.

[Lisa0825]

8. Whatever. Yes - your guy is real - no one else is. The whole world is against you.

Enjoy the presecution complex.

[dreamnightwind]

12. It is, though, pretty much the truth, Bernie is the real thing

and Dean is now a paid lobbyist for a firm whose most prominent clients are large health insurance corporations.

[Tarc]

9. Clinton, by winning the pledged delegate count, has already won the supers.

[Nye Bevan]

10. Wait.... the superdelegates will thwart the democratically expressed choice of the people

because some Bernie supporters are making a lot of noise outside?

What kind of delusional fantasy is this?

[Corporate666]

11. This article makes the same juvenile mistake as the others do

You need 2382 delegate votes to win the nomination.

A pledged delegate has the same weight of their vote as a super delegate.

Counting super delegates in the total required but omitting them from the current tally is wrong. It is mathematically wrong, ethically wrong, intellectually wrong and common-sensically wrong.

People are suggesting that super delegates only come into play if one candidate doesn't get the required pledged delegates. That is simply not how it works. There will be a "first vote" where ALL delegates will vote - pledged and supers. If any candidate gets 2383 on that vote, they are the nominee. In that case, there will be no second vote. There will be no debate. There will be no discussion. There will be no bargaining. There will be no recounts. There will be no second chances.

You either don't count super delegates, in which case the number required to secure the nomination is a majority (which is 2026 delegates), or you count super delegates, in which case the number required to secure the nomination is 2382.

If you choose the former path, Hillary has 81% of the total she needs, and only needs to win 381 more pledged delegates (38% of the total remaining pledged delegates) out of the remaining 1016 available. Or if you choose the latter path, she has 91% of the delegates she needs, and only needs an additional 217 (18% of the total remaining delegates).

[Dragonfli]

16. False regarding counting them now, or do you know something the DNC does not?

[Dragonfli]

17. .

[dreamnightwind]

13. Encouraging, and we should take it all the way to force the hand of the powers that be

I think he gives the superdelegates and the party too much credit. The fix is in, they will support Hillary unless Bernie gets the full 2382 before the convention (virtually impossible).

I could be wrong about that, and even if I am, we need to make them do it, to expose the process as the fixed game it is. Then we can see where to go from there.

Bernie will do well in the remaining primaries. I'm amazed how much energy there is in my area of northern California, complete strangers all over the place saluting each other with Feel the Bern upon seeing any Bernie advocacy, we certainly haven't given up.

There's an outside chance of scandals worsening for Hillary, which could influence the convention, I suppose.

I read somewhere that superdelegates vote on the first ballot, is that true? If so, doesn't that negate the brokered convention strategy?

[La Lioness Priyanka]

14. math and speculation dont mean the same thing. nt

[procon]

15. Is this a joke?

Whoever wrote this is either totally misinformed, lying or proselytising to the faithful. First, superdelegates have nothing to do with voters, they are the old guard, established party big shots whose only purpose is to ensure that the party stays in power by keeping a Democrat in the WH who is loyal to the party .. and they can do that any way they want to.

Secondly, and this is an embarrassingly ignorant assumption from the writer, protestors are not permitted anywhere near the convention site. Protestors are cordoned off in some distant parking lots surrounded by police barricades. They can chant as loud as they want, but no one at the convention is ever going to see or hear them. Sorry to bust your bubble.

Third, even if Bernie really had all these millions and millions of independent voters -- and if he did he'd be winning, right? -- none of them will be attending the convention because they aren't delegates, so scratch the glorious mass voter exit fantasy. Bernie does not have the support of the "entire Democratic Party", or "millions of Independents", if that was true, he'd be winning, but he ain't. Now, in the 2000 election, Hillary netted some crossover Republican voters, and she's expected to do that again this time, especially with women. Bernie might wish he could say the same, but there's no evidence that prayers will work.

[onenote]

18. Such a flawed analysis, its hard to know where to begin

If you read through this guy's entire two part "analysis" you will see that it is based on the idea that Sanders will come to the convention with more pledged delegates than Clinton. He calculates that Sanders can accomplish this by merely getting 64.4 of the remaining pledged delegates. He claims that is easily achieved because Sanders has regularly gotten huge victories in excess of 64 percent in other states.

But there are at least (and almost certainly more) problems with his "analysis."

He assumes that all of the remaining states are basically the same. They're not. And there is no reason for anyone to think that Clinton will get only around 35 percent in each of the upcoming races. So the size of the win that Sanders would need in the final primaries will be more than 64.4 percent by that point. Possibly much more.

Even more problematic is his citing the large margins of victory Sanders has had in some states as evidence of what will happen in the remaining states. Virtually all of the 65 percent or better victory margins he cites came in caucus states and there appears to be a clear differentiation in Sanders strength in caucus states and his strength in primary states. In other words, he compares apples to oranges.

I understand wanting to keep hope alive and have absolutely no problem with Sanders staying the race, but its really not at all likely that Sanders will overtake Clinton in the pledged delegate race before the convention.

[Chicago1980]

19. Right...

[youtube]

[/youtube]

[Sheepshank]

27. Ok, now this shit is just getting embarrassing

Seriously, the BS supporter denial is really sad.

[metroins]

28. I enjoy fantasy fiction too

It's fun to dream of winning a 500 million powerball.

[Waiting For Everyman]

29. Very interesting.

Thanks, imagine2015!

One thing I know for sure, every card will have to be played to the last hand. This is not a race that can be called ahead of time, and those who try to do it are misleading people. Every vote and every delegate will matter, right down to the wire. Then, and only then, we'll see what will happen next.

"Those in the know" have been wrong before. Remember President Dewey? Me either.

[silvershadow]

30. I don't need math, unless she's cleared of the FBI investigation before convention. nt