2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPew National poll tied (prior poll R+4)
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-29-12%20FINAL%20Political%20Release.pdfSunSeeker
(51,659 posts)Drab
(54 posts)tbennett76
(223 posts)out the ABC crosstab on whites. If POTUS is at 40 with 74 percent white turnout I believe he wins. In Pew he is at 37 and near as I can tell, last week was his white nadir, but I expect that to shift positive to continue, especially with his leadership skills on full display. Plus this I believe is his floor, I suspect the remaining white undecideds are soft Dems he will consolidate.
blazeKing
(329 posts)The other team is positive they'll still win. Lol
TexasCPA
(527 posts)<$50k per year. 52% O; 41 R O+11
TroyD
(4,551 posts)But, as the poll points out, Obama has not yet regained the lead in Pew that he had prior to the first debate.
And then when you read through the paragraphs Pew goes on to claim that Romney has a turnout advantage because his voters are more enthusiastic etc., so Pew isn't making it sound that favorable to the President.
Nevertheless it looks like it could be part of a favorable trend if Obama can now gain a couple of points in the final week.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)In registered voters Obama leads by 2.Voters like Obama more as leader,think Obama takes more moderate postions and Is more
willing to work with other party yet Romney leads In both new Ideas and economy.They think republicans are more enthustic and are voting for Romney and not against Obama.Still Romney has dropped since last poll.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Whatever. Pew is still pushing the bullshit myth about the first debate.
GOTV
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)that supposedly show Romney ahead. Guess they will simply stop discussing polls. LOL
TexasCPA
(527 posts)VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Their likely voter model is very pro-GOP, yet Romney still only manages a tie and is down amongst registered voters.
PATRICK
(12,228 posts)of the last three elections before the last one. They have moved the polls well into the cheat zone danger range and will leave them there under pretext of the storm because the storm is great cover for anything.
All the great things I heard going for Kerry in 2004 are very ominously similar. The difference is that Obama IS doing better at the ground game, early voting and other honest factors beyond count while the GOP fraud is spilling over like the seawalls on the East Coast in new sweeping suppression, depression and machine gaming tactics. The polls are not overcome in their opinion, pretext forming tilt.
CNN on the storm is going 50/50 Romney pimping(+Obama gets to "look" presidential meme) and storm drama. Twenty million of us could be treading water and all the life preservers are being shot at Rmoney.
Older people in the doctor's office were disgusted at the "campaign" which is all news media meme-ing at this point.
Sound and fury signifying fraud. I firmly believe Obama is THE actual vote winner. And will even if the criminals prevail. No news outlet makes a point about GOP fraud.
I make the same comment as in 2004. Not enough or nothing has been done about constantly increasing GOP fraud which is STILL poised for a "win". If not now, then in 2016 it will be invincible. And how many lower seats will be lost to it?