Functionally, Clinton will clinch the nomination on June 7. That's just reality

[cali]

You can hate the democratic primary system with the passion of a thousand burning suns, but that doesn't change reality. Continuing to post that she won't, pretending that the super delegates will switch, is fantasy. It's silly.

And you know what? Bernie can't catch her. Not in the real world.

A contested convention? Pointless and counterproductive. Bernie shouldn't.

He won't.

[Jack Bone]

1. I appriciate your notion...

but that's why we vote. Dewey beat Truman too. economies falter, people get indicted, people get sick.

Bernie knows this...and as he's said...he's going to the convention!

[Betty Karlson]

12. Clinton's camp is just desperate to create the false notion that all conclusions are foregone.

Pathetic.

[Renew Deal]

25. When does the Sanders camp accept reality?

Here's a test. Who has more pledged delegates right now?

[tazkcmo]

26. Clinton has more.

That is the reality. She's always been in the lead even before one vote was cast as super delegates rallied behind her. Good on her. Speaking of reality, it's a reality that the primaries are not over. The convention has not been hel;d and the super delegate's votes have not been cast. Deal with that.

[lagomorph777]

54. Here's a test: who has a majority of PDs or PD+SD?

Trick question. Nobody does. The coronation will not be televised.

[Garrett78]

60. Has anyone argued that Clinton already has a majority of PDs?

Seems like a straw man to me.

[lagomorph777]

61. The constantly-repeated argument is that because she has a lead, she "has won."

...and screw the voters in CA, NJ, MT, ND, SD, and DC. What do they think this is, a democracy or something?

[Garrett78]

63. Technically Speaking vs. Practically Speaking

Practically speaking, it's been clear since mid-March that Clinton will win a majority of the pledged delegates. Technically speaking, of course she hasn't yet gotten to 2026. Nobody is foolish enough to argue that 1771 is more than 2025.

By mid-March, there were well-established patterns. Most notably the fact that Clinton does better, overall, in delegate-rich, diverse states. Given there was no reason to believe those patterns would suddenly get flipped upside down. it was plain to see that the writing was on the wall. Her delegate lead has remained greater than Obama's lead ever was in 2008. Because, again, those well-established patterns have held steady, as expected.

I wrote about this in the first half of March: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511460282

And a couple weeks after that: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511552338

And again earlier this month: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511990307

The only thing surprising is that not everyone recognized what was a pretty obvious point.

[auntpurl]

28. The OP is a Bernie supporter.

[Betty Karlson]

66. I know; see reply # 62 please.

[cali]

43. If you actually believe I'm a Clinton supporter you need a reality check in a big way.

[Garrett78]

62. I'm not a Clinton supporter either, but sound reasoning and DU don't mix.

Speaking of realities that some wish to deny will automatically get you labeled a Clinton supporter, no matter how obvious it is that you aren't one.

I've compiled a lengthy list of false notions that *many* on DU subscribe to. It's a bit disturbing.

[Betty Karlson]

65. I don't believe that for a second. My reply was an addition to reply #1

Jack Bone said that lots of things may still happen between now and the convention - and I added that camp Clinton tries to create the false notion that all conclusions are already foregone.

If that seemed to imply that you - of all people - had joined camp Clinton, then I apologise for my inartful way of phrasing the addition. I only and exclusively meant to enhance Jack Bone's sentiments.

[Renew Deal]

24. Cruz said he was going to the convention too

[Jack Bone]

59. State Dept. IG reports happen....nt

[Voice for Peace]

2. I'm sorry that's your point of view, even sorrier if you are correct

because I have such a peculiar feeling about what's ahead, it's a bright feeling.

Something grand has shifted and none of us -- even if we have a nobel peace prize in mathematics & probabilities -- know how this will end. If you are feeling bleak and gloomy please don't promote the feeling! And ask your real heart about giving up on hope.

This is only one election. A single battle, not the war.

[silvershadow]

4. The times they are a changing', not matter who becomes the nominee. Meantime,

I'm working my backside off for Bernie. Until that date comes, and then beyond. I ain't going back.

[highprincipleswork]

5. Nice post, and a little different than the usual morose kind of fare around here. I agree. This is

no more reality than some other realities, one of which is that Bernie has promised to take this to the convention and I truly hope that he does.

There are too many people behind him, and nobody is likely to have the majority of pledged delegates, and one could say that is another equally strong reality.

I believe all these diatribes about it "being over" are just nervousness in action. And there is plenty to be nervous about.
Bernie's success.
The possibility Bernie will still pull out major victories.
The FBI investigation and its effect on things, whether or not there are indictments.
Bringing the Party together, hopefully under the Progressive policies discussed so far and that are a winner this year for the majority of American citizens.

Nervousness is never a good sign of reality.

[PATRICK]

13. It's not a simplistic contest

between two Dem persons. It is what the voice of the party voters bring to the the party leadership. And that is accentuated by the actual candidacy of Sanders being much more than about his personal place on the ticket. And it has always been this movement which the party leadership has continued to deny and cannot at the Convention without throwing November to Trump. It is too late for Sanders as POTUS perhaps, but it is much more too late to fantasize about a united centrist Democratic Party. There are two contests going on together and to miss that is to miss the point.

[cali]

8. Simple reality.

[Voice for Peace]

10. No. Simple reality is filled with unknowable possibilities.

Simple reality is this:
winds of change are blowing;
hope itself is inextinguishable.
Goodness is on the rise,
& impossible things happen all the time.

[cali]

11. Let me put it this way: his odds of winning the nomination are vanishingly small

Personally, I'm more invested at this point in solidifying a movement that captures and builds on those winds of change.

[tazkcmo]

30. You're correct Cali.

We've known the odds were/are very long. We still need to continue to spread the message, compete strongly in each remaining primary and take as much support to the convention as possible. During the convention, Sen Sanders will use his large amount of support to influence the Democratic Party platform. Good old leverage!

After the convention more intensely, we can focus our attention down ballot and to 2018. Onward through the fog!

[cali]

32. Precisely. n/t

[Garrett78]

38. Good on ya.

That, I think, was always the purpose of the Sanders campaign. It's a message campaign designed to spur a movement.

[VulgarPoet]

40. Vanishingly small, but he will be the thorn that the Third Way's throats convulse around

all the way to the convention, and hopefully beyond with the movement he's fostered.

[lagomorph777]

56. small, but growing fast thanks to help from Clinton herself

The ever-growing pulsating blob of goo that is her record is eating her campaign alive.


Don't let it eat you. Get some help if necessary. Don't drag your allies down.

[brooklynite]

29. Well, why didn't you say you "had a feeling" earlier?

Al I have is 40 years of experience in politics and professional skills in statistics and data crunching. I could have saved my time.

[Ichingcarpenter]

3. What do you think about this observation will have

on your supposition?

The FBI report, the News cycle, poll numbers, primaries and internet chatter.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280201770

[silvershadow]

6. That's why he won't concede. nt

[cali]

7. There is no way Hillary will be indicted. No. Way.

[Ichingcarpenter]

9. I didn't say that she would

Never in my OP.

[PATRICK]

14. If indicted

the stark reality will be that the leadership will push the Convention to Biden or someone other than Sanders. And the contest of ideologies will continue unabated during that process as well.

[Dawgs]

17. There is no way she will President either.

What are going to do to stop Trump, other than tell us the obvious?

[amborin]

41. then we have no rule of law; expect leaks, etc

[delrem]

15. Thanks, Debbie Downer, for your efforts in the days preceding the Calif primary.

I can't imagine where the "revolution" would be without you.

[boston bean]

19. chomp, chomp, chomp!

[JoePhilly]

21. Funny isn't it.

[grossproffit]

23. We've run out of buses.

[Dawgs]

16. What does that have to do with anything?

Our goal as Americans should be to make sure that Trump doesn't become President. Having Hillary as the candidate will not stop that goal.

So, we need to find a new way to stop him. That is the argument we are having now.

Your OP is just a rehashing of Hillary talking points and does nothing to help...unless you're looking for RECS.

[JudyM]

67. Zactly. Over. And over. And over.

[Skwmom]

18. If it was SUCH a foregone conclusion they wouldn't be continuing the manipulative dog and pony shows

[VulgarPoet]

20. I came into this cycle hoping to have my assumptions about this nation proved false.

Instead, I'm just that much more cynical now.

[Lizzie Poppet]

35. This is kinda the last chance for me.

If the oligarchy succeeds in getting their venal lapdog nominated, I'm pretty much ready to pack it in on the whole thing...and limit my political involvement to advocating for Cascadian secession.

"If voting worked, we wouldn't be allowed to do it."

[jzodda]

22. Functionally It will be over

As 538 mentioned it will most likely be over by the close of polls on June 7 or after New Jersey.

Then the hard work begins so by the convention the party is more unified. HRC must work with Bernie on the rules and platform and more so we come out of the convention as a party ready to battle the clown show.

[LexVegas]

27. Man, do the Berniebros eat their own or what? You, a genuine Sanders supporter goes under the bus.

[cali]

36. I'm fine with that. One faction or another here, has been throwing me

under the bus for well over a decade.

I don't buy my ideas wholesale.

[randome]

31. Just what is it that Clinton is using to blackmail you?

Or are you being offered a plum lobbying position? There must be a reason for your post. Math? No, what am I thinking? What could it be?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]

[seabeyond]

33. Sanders doesn't get special treatment just cause he isn't a Democrat running in our primary.

Our candidates have been doing this process a very long time and we didn't have these fits.

[Vattel]

34. I agree entirely. I too predict that there will not be a contested convention.

I do disagree with you in that I think Bernie should stay in for all the primaries.

edited to add: I think this because I think that the movement will be better served by his staying in that long and no longer.

[VulgarPoet]

39. I hope Sanders is a thorn in their throat all the way up to the coronation.

At least then we can faintly hope some inkling of progressive movement is sustained, even though we all know Third Way and co will toss out the platform a minute after the ink dries.

[Tom Rinaldo]

37. I agree AND believe Bernie should fight hard all the way to the Convention if need be

Sanders will only be our nominee if Hillary is indicted - which is an extreme long shot at best. That's what it would take to turn enough Super Delegates against her now - but even with that they would still throw the nod to Biden in a New York minute if Sanders voluntarily folded up his tent.

But that's not why Bernie should not stop fighting. First off, he needs to continue campaigning, building and mobilizing a new Democratic base. That's for the long term, in the short term every delegate he wins makes it clearer to the Party that the views of his supporters can not be safely ignored. After the voting is over, as soon as Sanders endorses Hillary his leverage maxes out. Politics really is hard ball, it is how real power gets brokered. The active cooperation of even the losing side after a heated contest is legitimately subject to barter. Sanders isn't playing poker chips, his voice represents many millions of voters. Their strong loyalty should never be take for granted, nor should anyone foolishly believe that Sanders can simply deliver their loyalty to Clinton. His ability to do so will in large part be determined by what he can say to therm that he has won for them in return. Of course most will simply default over to Clinton - but some won't without a lot of convincing.

It's like labor negotiations where neither side really wants to see a strike. The closer a impasse gets to the deadline, the more pressure builds on both sides to reach a reasonable outcome. My hope is that it all gets sorted out successfully after the end of the primary season but before the convention opens. But the real threat of a strike should negotiations break down is part of what drives the bargaining forward to a just conclusion.

I strongly believe that Sanders wants to see the Democratic Party unite against Trump, but he also knows that his amazingly successful insurgency campaign this year is speaking to issues that have festered for decades that will not simply fade away regardless of who wins in November. Politics as usual can not simply be allowed to resume as usual.

[amborin]

42. No, HRC will not have enuf delegates to clinch nomination even after June 7; why

[Garrett78]

50. When she clinches a majority of pledged delegates (2026+), it's mere formalities after that.

I'm pretty sure that's what cali means. When Clinton ends up with ~2150-2200 pledged delegates and Sanders has something like 1850-1900 pledged delegates, it's a given who the nominee will be.

[Attorney in Texas]

44. I partly agree but mostly disagree. Here's why:

You are correct that Hillary may well clinch the nomination on June 7. That we agree upon.

Yet there are a number of reasons why it is advantageous for the Sanders-led movement, for the Democratic Party, and for Hillary that Sanders continue to campaign and, if necessary, to raise platform contests at the convention.

How does the continuation of the Sanders' campaign help Hillary? Several ways:

The ongoing Sanders campaign gives Hillary an avenue to dominate news cycles with a story other than her email server problem or whatever bullshit twitter post Trump launched the previous day - this prolongs Hillary's opportunity to discuss how her platform will help the middle class and those aspiring to join the middle class;

The ongoing Sanders campaign gives Hillary a foil against which she can cast herself as the Goldilocks "middle choice" between Trump on her right (at least on domestic issues) and Sanders on her left;

The ongoing Sanders campaign gives Hillary a prime time event to make her general election pitch in a forum worth tens of millions of dollars worth of TV ads - it is crazy to pass up on the California debate, which is a golden opportunity in the Golden State to hit a huge audience with her general election message.

How does the continuation of the Sanders' campaign help the Democratic Party? Several ways:

The ongoing Sanders campaign gives the Democratic Party an opportunity to restore the enthusiasm we will need in the Fall if we are going to have a chance at avoiding a Trump administration - the party would hugely benefit from a vigorous debate about party rules (who wouldn't have some of their faith restored by the reform of a process where lobbyists super-delegates are installed to impose their will over grassroots voters?), the party platform (wouldn't it help with Hillary's key weakness by fighting the perception that Hillary is rudderless to adopt a platform that enshrines her shift to the left during the primary?), and the best role for the FDR-Sanders-Warren wing of the party (imagine how much easier it would be to retake the Senate if we empowered he Sanders-led movement to tap its energy on behalf of our Senate candidates in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Wisconsin?);

The ongoing Sanders campaign gives the Democratic Party an opportunity to find common ground - while Sanders continues to get push-back from the party and from Hillary on important progressive issue, of course he will continue to fight for these goals, but you hear more and more Sanders (and Warren) attacks on Trump, and this helps unite the party.

We are Democrats and this is democracy. Democrats should not fear democracy.

[MisterP]

45. care to repeat your OR/KY prediction for the classroom?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511981090
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512003692

[cali]

46. I always downplay my expectations for my candidate though that's not

what I'm doing here. You have to be stupid as Hell or delusional to think superdelegates are going to switch- unless she's indicted and that is not going to happen.

[MisterP]

47. I'm just hoping all this is some sort of ritual where you make downer predictions to keep

them from coming true

[lagomorph777]

49. Nice catch. Seems Cali may have accidentally used the wrong logo.

Ick.

[lagomorph777]

48. Why are you giving up, just as HRC is going down in flames?

Do you want the party to have NO viable nominee?

[Garrett78]

51. She shouldn't have used a private server.

That's not going down in flames.

[lagomorph777]

52. And Nixon shouldn't have broken into Watergate.

But in both cases, the coverup is what causes the final destruction. It is proof of bad intent.

[Garrett78]

55. If you think those 2 things are remotely equivalent, you're *way* overselling.

There's clearly a systemic problem at the State Department, and there has been for a long time apparently. People were careless, not maliciously violating other people.

[lagomorph777]

57. You're right: Watergate was just a campaign dirty trick; the e-mails damaged our national security.

So yeah, Watergate was pretty small in comparison.

[Maedhros]

53. Meh. I just want to make it as difficult as possible for mewling corporate toadies to succeed.[n/t]

[riversedge]

58. I do not think it will be contested.

[Orsino]

64. Reality is the mountain of issues past presidents have failed to deal with.

If we're going to nominate a Clinton, we must also commit to lobbying her night and day for the progressive change we desperately need.

[KingCharlemagne]

68. Then say "Hello" to President Trump. That's just reality. - nt