Warning about exit polls

[mgcgulfcoast]

be careful when you first hear about exit polls. im not sure if they take into account early votes that are already cast. the exits might not be accurate.

[randr]

1. Exit polling used to be one safeguard to fair elections

Exit polling was the first casualty in the 2001 selection of Bush, conspicuously.

[mgcgulfcoast]

2. i agree.

[RudynJack]

3. I'm sure

that exit polls don't take early voting into account. How could they?

[mgcgulfcoast]

4. they will be meaningless then.

[Igel]

5. They also don't take surprises into account.

Bigger than expected turnout by one demographic--race, ethicity, age, sex, urban/suburban/rural, (R)/(D).

Which means that they can take early voting into account just as well as they can take everything else into account. If their model says that 20% of all voting is early, and has expectations for how earlier voters voted, then that can be factored in just as well as anything else.

Exit polling doesn't get a random sample so the raw, unadjusted data is pointless. Exit polling gets a biased sample. But then the numbers get adjusted based on what the pollsters think the final pool of actual voters will look like. So the preliminary numbers are only as good as the model.

Always has, always will, as long as the sample isn't exhaustive.

[mgcgulfcoast]

6. should they be illegal?

[barbiegeek]

7. I heard Mormons were lying to polls that they were voting for Obama

[DerelictDeminGA]

8. Remember the exit polls in 2004.

Careful.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Exit polls will take into account early voting...

They are cutting back on some in-person exit polling, but also relying on phone surveys Tuesday that should give them indication who voted for whom and whether they voted early.

[Polldancer2012]

10. Let me tell you something

I've been a poll taker with Edison since 2006 and I can give some "real" advice on this topic.
Since I started and as I understand it since 2004, it's difficult to exit poll because of the willingness and unwillingness for people to participate in exit polls.
I ca literally pick who voted for whom by watching them. In 2008 the happy smiling folks with a spring in their step were Dems. Repubs were sullen, depressed and hesitant to participate in an exit poll. Dems were much more willing to talk to us. In 2010 the Repubs were pissed. They glared at us as if we were their enemy.
I 100% expect that this year exit polling will not be accurate. Repubs are still hopping mad and won't participate with us. Now remember, we deliver raw data that can be extrapolated buton the ground I assure you it will be hard to get good numbers.