Sam Wang Will Eat a Really Big Bug...

[Charlotte Little]

....if Romney wins Ohio. LOL - I love Sam Wang. He is under-rated, IMO, while Nate is a little over-rated.

http://election.princeton.edu/how-likely-is-PV-EV-mismatch-3nov2012.php

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A few days ago, the word was that Team Romney was buying ads in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he wins either of those states I will eat a bug. Ohio...a really big bug. And yes, I will post a photo.

Today I'll address a common concern among the commentariat: will President Obama lose the popular vote? Steve Lombardo is on the case with some Excel curve fitting of a quality that cannot even identify the Debate #1 bounce. Hmmm, someone take his keys away.

Anyway, the short answer: I estimate Romney's chance of winning the popular vote at 6%, odds of 16-1 against.

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[BlueState]

1. Yes I agree Sam Wang is underated

I have become a huge fan. I still like Nate, slightly disagree about him being overrated.

Did you see that Sam is saying Obama wins Florida and Virginia. That would be nice

[Charlotte Little]

8. Oh, trust me...

...I dig Nate. But Sam deserves to be elevated. I'm hoping he is as accurate as he was in 2008. If so, it should propel him to stardom. And, I'm praying for FL & VA to come through. I want a landslide for Obama, personally. Although, I'll be perfectly happy with a 271.

[BlueState]

10. On all those points...

...I'll agree 100%!

It might be too much to hope for, but Tues. 9 will be whole lot more stressful if NH, VA and FL get called for Obama early.

I think NH is a sure thing but the other two, well if all goes well....

[demosincebirth]

13. I prefer 300. I don't like nail biters

[Jennicut]

2. This graph tells me alot.

Obama lost some ground after the first debate but then has made up half of that ground since. Mittmentum was stopped around the VP debate.

[aaaaaa5a]

4. The model shows 2 things

1) Even at his lowest point in the campaign, Obama still led in the race to 270.

2) Obama won debates 2-3 by almost the same margin that Romney won debate 1. But the MSM as usual missed the story.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Sam Wang was absurdly accurate in 2004 and 2008

In 2008 he was MORE ACCURATE than Nate Silver.

I don't know why he doesn't get more fame. And unlike Nate Silver, he has never waivered at all with regard with who was going to win. His model was always strong. He uses data only and doesn't let outside influences effect him at all.

[Charlotte Little]

9. ^This^

[Richard D]

18. Honestly . . .

. . . his website needs updating.

[DCBob]

5. If Ohio is truly a lock then Obama wins... imo.

I dont see how Robme can make up those EVs elsewhere.

[brooklynite]

6. But where are your graphs?

Bar charts, probability curves, regression analyses...

[Cicada]

7. votamatic by Drew Linzer is good

I find his stuff very educational

http://votamatic.org/

[trusty elf]

11. ........

[IMG][/IMG]

[drm604]

12. Your link doesn't work. Here's one that does.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/03/how-likely-is-a-popular-voteelectoral-vote-mismatch

[amuse bouche]

14. Sam said he would be on CNN today at 4:20

then changed it to CNN1. Did anyone see it?

[Confusious]

15. I suggest a palo verde beetle

The length of the beetle is the width of a brick.

[hifiguy]

16. Sam won't be eating any bugs on account of Minnesota

Weird Willard is nearly 10 points down here in the last poll I saw.

[Efilroft Sul]

17. My eyes are so tired, I thought the OP said Sam Bug Will Eat a Really Big Wang.

I am reading way too much political coverage.

[LostinRed]

19. I only follow unskewedpolls.com

And Romney used to be a clear lead now that jackass has him barely winning.

[NCLefty]

20. Didn't some guy die after eating a bunch of roaches recently?

*throws up a little in his mouth*