Rasmussen poll, Obama leads Romney by seven points, (49-42)

[center rising]

Of course Rasmussen skewers Republican, so to me, the lead is something like ten points. Also, Obama leads little Ricky by nine points, (49-40)


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[rocktivity]

1. Obama's margin over McCrazed was 7 points

So anything in excess of that would be icing on the cake -- no, make that SPRINKLES on the icing of the cake!


rocktivity

[aaaaaa5a]

2. I like the numbers but...

I am slowly not becoming a big fan of the 3 day tracking polls released by Gallup and Rasmussen each day. They seem to fluctuate wildly for no reason. Over the course of one week, an Obama/Romney spread can fluctuate between +10 to tied for no apparent reason. This is true for Gallup too, who only days ago had the Presidents approval rating at 43% and today has him at 48%.


With a 3 day tracking poll, 1 day with a bad sample (our outlier) can screw the numbers up for the next 2 days of polling.


Still, I monitor the 3 day tracking polls because it can be an early warning sign with regard to trends. But I choose not to use the daily number as a general guide to a politician's standing.


I wish the 3 day tracking numbers would come out of the RCP's matchup average.


However, having said all of that... its still nice to have a 7 point lead from a conservative leaning pollster like Rasmussen.

[lovekendyl]

6. Nothing new for Gallup

They did the same things in 2000 and 2006, I ignore Gallup. Gallup also has its own unemployment survey which is much higher than the traditional survey used. Of course Punk Hannitty likes the Gallup Job numbers better..

[Jack Rabbit]

3. If Rassmussen say 7 points . . .

. . . then it must be about 12.

[polichick]

7. Definitely.

[Thrill]

4. Hard to believe Mittens is getting over 40%

[Robbins]

5. Well

Romney will probally get 45 percent of the vote.Inless his momanism causes some to just stay home.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. John McCain and Sarah Palin had 47% in 2008. nt

[aaaaaa5a]

9. Today Rasmussen has Romney up +2 over Obama.

As I said earlier, in the thread, this is why the 3 day tracking polls are becoming increasingly useless.


In the Rasmussen tracking poll, Obama went from a 7 point lead Wednesday (49-42) to being down 2 points today (Friday) (45-47).

Was what happened Tuesday night honestly enough for a 9 point swing on the polls in just 2 days? (Remember Friday is not a part of todays numbers.)

HARDLY!


This is the nature of 3 day tracking polls. And swings like this for no apparent reason are very common. This is why they are not reliable.