2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGary Johnson (and Stein) Votes are Votes for Trump (UPDATED for 7/25)
Last edited Mon Jul 25, 2016, 07:23 AM - Edit history (1)
While some polls have Johnson, Stein, or both of them taking more from Hillary, some more from Trump, I've seen Nate Silver's new article:
However, the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll, conducted from Monday through Friday, shows Trump making major gains, trailing Clinton by less than 1 percentage point. Clinton had generally been up by around 10 percentage points in that poll before the convention began. Clintons lead is slightly larger, 3 percentage points, in the version of the poll without Johnson and Stein.
From this, we see Johnson (and Stein to a lesser extent) electing Donald J. Trump. Silver previously had an article about this
Gary Johnson may have originally been thought by some to be helping Hillary by some of the talking heads who wish to make a story, have an excuse for Trump's troubles, or whatever reason, but the data shows this to be a lie. And sure a few GOP NeverTrump politicians are talking Johnson. However, those political class guys are not the ordinary voters real polls capture.
The data says this loud and clear: Gary Johnson is threatening to elect Donald Trump. Gary Johnson isn't even a conservative in most ways, and he is closer to Clinton regarding major issues like social policy and Mexican immigrants. For the good of this country, Gary Johnson must drop out and endorse Hillary. His voters should be persuaded to go Clinton. I am working on getting my Johnson supporting friends to go Hillary. I hope you all do too.
I hope you all spread the contents of this thread to Facebook, Twitter, etc. so perhaps it gets thru to Johnson and Stein's fans and ultimately Johnson and Stein themselves that they need to drop out NOW.
UPDATE 7/25:
That's +5 in a 4 way, +3 (within MoE) in a two-way. http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll/index.html
Johnson and Stein MUST DROP OUT!
ericson00
(2,707 posts)but with less than 50%, its likely the GOP will do to her what they did to Bill re the debunked Perot-myth; use the "spoiler elected President X" excuse to delegitimize her and weaken her politically. Also, the GOP won't get as powerful a message as they would otherwise get if Hillary does get over 50% of the vote.
duncang
(1,907 posts)Personally I think that has been under rated. Got a couple long time red republicans. With out any prompting (hadn't seen one in weeks) they both said no way voting for trump. But also said no way clinton. Their voting for Johnson.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)because individual people's experience can't know everyone or everything. Its much more subject to selection bias, social desirability bias, small sample size, etc.
The data says Johnson elects Donald J Trump.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Each vote is a vote for that candidate, not a vote against another candidate.
Everyone should vote for who they want to, even if they vote for folks I disagree with. That's the great thing about our system.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Any other argument is simply mistaken.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I agree 100 percent. We all love democracy ..... But only if you vote for my candidate. Lol
ericson00
(2,707 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Fine by me. But if others don't want to, also fine with me. That's democracy. We all get 1 vote, we should use it how we want.
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)who will be persecuted under Trump...and when they find out that voting is no longer needed ( with the courts stacked votes won't matter) if Trump wins for thirty years or more...I hope such voters understand the price paid by others for their incredibly selfish act of voting for anyone other than Hillary. It is Hillary or Trump-one will win...voting for greens or any third party is a privileged selfish thing to do and only helps Trump.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I can never vote again and the DEMs will still win my state.
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)I would have hoped 2000 and 2004 would have made people realize that the third parties are a GOP trap for Democrats.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Please explain to me just why trump is so close, and even ahead in some polls.
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)I think early polls are meaningless. And I also thing the media wants a horserace.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)But heck, last night was bloody great.
Michelle was fantastic. Liz kicked major league ass. Bernie berned down the house.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Sure, a vote for Trump is, in a sense, a "vote for democracy." It's also a vote for a racist sociopath.
And a vote for Jill Stein is a vote for Trump. All it can accomplish is making Trump more likely to be president.
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)that advocated for people to vote Democratic as it is a Democratic site.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)But their vote is their vote, and they should do with it what they wish.
onenote
(42,700 posts)But they should understand the consequences of their votes. You don't get a free pass for a vote that doesn't maximize the chances that trump will be defeated. And hopefully defeated by a margin that discredits his brand of hate.
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)is wrong. Do what you want , but don't try to help elect a non-Democrat.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Since it's not plausible that the third parties can win, if your second choice is one of the two major parties, you're enabling the other major party's candidate's victory.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,181 posts)If it is someone is far right who would never vote for Hillary in their life regardless and goes third party, I'd say they are more like votes for her.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Gary Johnson could go either way. Democrats who vote Gary Johnson are helping Trump, but Republicans voting Gary Johnson help Hillary.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)we need to help start a grassroots movement to get Johnson and/or Stein to drop out, endorse Hillary, and close shop.
glennward
(989 posts)If they did, they would join a major party and work hard to implement the changes they want to see. There is a much better chance for achieving their goals inside than outside...neither has anything to offer but a place to vote for Trump without feeling dirty for doing it.