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[Mister Twilight]

This message was self-deleted by its author (Mister Twilight) on Sun Jul 24, 2016, 09:19 AM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[liberal N proud]

1. Check back next week!

[Hortensis]

3. From what I heard, closer to mid August will provide

an even more reliable view of how the two parties are doing going into the GE.

[glennward]

45. They must be polling a lot of Sanders supporters.

From the comments by Naomi, a lot of them will not be voting or voting third party. I guess the Putin/Trump relationship doesn't bother them at all because they are not even talking about it. Just talking about the behind the scenes dissing of Sanders staff by SOME DNC STAFF.

The media seems to have aligned with disgruntled Sanders supports to promote disunity and to talk down Hillary.

Folks we have a tough road before us but we are up to it! YES WE CAN!!

[Blue Idaho]

4. 538 also just wrote that Trump's post convention bounce

Is worse than a dead cat. He didn't get what he needed, it's that simple.

[MFM008]

5. uh oh

fainting couch



pearls to clutch


AND

[annavictorious]

9. Perfect!

[NurseJackie]

43. This is great! Thanks!

[annavictorious]

6. Oh please...

it's much too early for this kind of stuff to be disturbing.

But your concern is duly noted.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Some people are so transparent.

Sometimes moderated boards suck.

[Mister Twilight]

16. "Concern"

Okay, I know what you're trying to imply, but you're wrong. And cavalier attitudes about Trump are exactly what will put him in the White House!

[Dem2]

30. 19

lol.

Bye.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Thank you for your concern.

[kwolf68]

10. LOL...

Mr 18 post bringing in good cheer. Nice

[MFM008]

40. love grumpy

[CrowCityDem]

11. Did I miss the evidence of FL tipping? Looks like Nate created Trump's "lead".

[Squinch]

12. You joined to post this? Mmmkay.

[StevieM]

13. She should have picked Tom Vilsack. He would have made a bigger difference than Kaine will.

Barack Obama and Bill Clinton should have stayed the hell out of this decision. They both pressed hard for Kaine.

I hope we can turn this around. I am terrified of a Trump presidency.

[RonniePudding]

22. Pass that shit over here, bruh.

[obamanut2012]

31. lolz

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Yeah, all Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did was win four Electoral College landslides.

[StevieM]

36. Exactly. And I think that's why she listened to them. She shouldn't have.

Vilsack was the much better choice IMO.

Then again, I also wish she had given Xavier Becerra a closer look.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. How was Vilsack a better choice?

Kaine speaks fluent Spanish, has great inroads into the African American community, and has foreign policy experience. His debut has been overwhelmingly positive.

[Maru Kitteh]

38. Again with this. You impune the judgement of our sitting and former Democratic president and

the ability of the next one to assert herself in her own decision making.

Just stop.

Relax.

It's going to be fine. If you are very concerned and worried, then you know, give money, volunteer, and GOTV!

[MohRokTah]

14. Sam Wang responds to Nate Silver

Sam Wang
?@SamWangPhD

Sam Wang Retweeted Nate Silver

Scary!! Though um, HRC has always led, Obama is at net approval, & generic House is at D+7%. http://election.princeton.edu

Nate Silver
?@NateSilver538

Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/757015143373017089

[CrowCityDem]

19. Yeah. Hillary's clearly ahead in the polling, and Nate subtracted points based on his own whims. BS!

[MohRokTah]

20. He needs eyes on glass.

No Horse Race, nobody clicks on 538.com.

Sam Wang, on the other hand, does his model simply in his capacity as a Professor, so eyes on glass doesn't mean anything.

[Rstrstx]

24. I've noticed that in the past week or two

Hopefully his objectivity hasn't been compromised by the 'Horse Race Narrative'. His poll "adjustments" have suddenly gone in one direction to make it look closer.

NYT has a roundup of where the various prediction sites stand

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

[RAFisher]

29. No. Nate explains the method he uses. It's not based on his own whims. It's not BS.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

[CrowCityDem]

46. He can explain it, but it doesn't make a certain point any less BS.

That being his 'trend line' analysis. He takes extra points away from Hillary in FL, because the most recent polls are slightly closer than the ones from a few weeks ago. His model assumes that trend is going to continue, despite there being no evidence of it, and declares FL to be a tie when Trump is clearly not ahead in the polling or the demographics. It's pure voodoo pulled out of thin air.

[Logical]

48. Really? So you know more than Nate? Nt

[CrowCityDem]

50. I know that making an assumption, without any evidence, is lousy analysis. Yes.

[Logical]

32. You mean the whims of the guy who nailed the 2008 and 2012 elections????? nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. You can go back and look at my posts from 2004.

I'm no Pollyanna. A lot of DUers got upset with me when I said the polls didn't look good for Kerry...

I didn't have that vibe in 08, 012, or now. The demographics give me confidence. i like our chances, a lot....

Trump is getting to the point he will need 70% of the white vote to win. That's not happening.

[CrowCityDem]

23. Yup. I don't know how you see polls with 90% & 80% among AAs and Latinos and come away worried.

I think it's pretty clear that most of the polls that are out there right now are heavily oversampling white voters. Looking at the results of the last couple elections, there is simply no way Trump can be facing a bigger chasm among minorities, while doing worse with white voters, and not be solidly behind. The only explanation is that the polls are too white.

[tallahasseedem]

27. According to Michael Moore...

There is some magical white vote out there that will show up in droves to put Trump up enough to win.

[RAFisher]

28. Both are correct. The race is close and Clinton has always led.

Silver's model has always shown Clinton winning too. Even with Trump winning Ohio, Florida and Iowa; Silver still shows Clinton winning.

[Person 2713]

15. Don't have a sads

[Monk06]

17. The Council has taken note of your concerns and will advise you later of their decision

OK here is our decision

[Tanuki]

37. Monk, someone actually alerted on this post, claiming it was

flaming/personal attack!

[Monk06]

39. I am deeply concerned by that I think I`ll post a vanity in order to bring everyone`s attention to

my hurt feellngs

[4now]

18. Nice try - LOL

But be careful there are many low post count concern trolls around.

[brooklynite]

25. ...and Clinton still wins...

[underpants]

26. Yes. Still wins the election.

[Stargleamer]

34. Clinton can lose in Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina but still win the election

as long as she wins Colorado (where Trump screwed up in the Primaries), New Mexico (a safe bet) and Virginia (Kaine's home state). These 273 electoral votes seem very doable for her. In other words, 273 electoral votes seem very likely to be hers.

[scheming daemons]

35. Your concern is duly noted

[Surya Gayatri]

41. Twilight of the Gods...it's the END. Hey, thanks for signing on just to bring that to our attention.

You seem sincerely frightened, but I suspect that you'll get over it...

[muriel_volestrangler]

42. Here, let me screengrab that for you, showing Hillary ahead in all three

If you go to the pages for each state, you get:

Ohio: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/ Clinton chance of winning: 50.1%
Iowa: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/ Clinton 50.1%
Florida: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/ Clinton 50.1%

But, if Trump were to win Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and Arizona, and Hillary win Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia (where Silver has them all ahead), Hillary still wins the electoral college 279 to 259. She could lose Nevada, and still win the EC.

[Mister Twilight]

51. That's the Updated map from this morning

Relieved to see it! Thanks for posting! Good day, Muriel!

[SidDithers]

47. Welcome to DU...

Sid

[Mister Twilight]

49. This has gotten ridiculous

I was simply reminding people not to be complacent. Doesn't anyone hear watch Bill Maher???