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[Name removed]

[we can do it]

1. This has been posted some time ago.

[we can do it]

7. Yes posted already on this site.

[we can do it]

21. Well it's stale now- Hillary ahead again.

[still_one]

2. Interestingly Kasach believes that Trump will lose Ohio. I also don't buy the map for Penn,

Of course if there is anything negative to post about Hillary, Salon will be right on top of it.

Not so quick if there are positive things.

[Wounded Bear]

3. Ohio and Penn going Trump?

Both? Hmmmm, don't think so.

[still_one]

4. I don't either. I also don't think Iowa will go to Trump

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. It's not a prediction - it's what he thinks would happen if the election were held today,

and the numbers are meaningless during the conventions.

[Renaissance Man]

8. Midwestern States and two Rustbelt States?

This is not that hard to fathom, at all. Ohio and Pennsylvania are Rustbelt states. Iowa and Florida being tossups (and battleground states) are not hard to fathom, either.

[stopbush]

9. This is not forecast.

[Mass]

10. The election is not today!nt

[teenagebambam]

11. It's already (Jul 25, 3:25 pm EDT)

Flipped PA back to blue and has Clinton ahead.

[UMTerp01]

12. FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA

Between Ohio and Florida, I think that Hillary has a much better shot at winning Florida than Ohio. The demographics in Florida just do not favor Donald Trump and Voto Latino is doing huge registration and GOTV efforts in Florida. Hillary can hold on to Florida and lose Ohio and even some other states that went Obama and still get to 270.

[CrowCityDem]

13. Aside from state polling not backing that up, it's unfair to put a map out between the conventions.

[Yurovsky]

14. I've said all along this was going to be close...

I think Trump would be tied or behind Bernie, but HRC will probably move back ahead after the convention provided the next few days are drama-free.

The bottom line is that there are a lot of folks who are going to vote Trump come hell or high water. I think potential Democratic voters outnumber them by a decent margin, but how
many are sitting this one out or voting 3rd party? I think the well of anti-Trump fervor isn't quite deep enough to carry the day for HRC, she'll need to give the lukewarm Democrats and independents a reason to vote FOR her.

The next 106 days will determine if she's able to pull this off. I'd still give her the edge but it's not going to be the cakewalk so many on DU seem to be convinced of.

[annavictorious]

15. What's your point?

It doesn't help when political neophytes play right into Rapey Julian's hand. Those idiots were booing Bernie Sanders this afternoon at his own rally.

Well-played, Rapey Julian. Stirring up false outrage to the point where Sanders gets booed at his own rally on the first day of the convention. That was a pretty picture.

[Squinch]

16. AS USUAL MISTER TWILIGHT IS MISREPRESENTING THINGS TO MAKE TRUMP LOOK BETTER.

THIS PARTICULAR OP IS COMPLETELY UNTRUE.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate has Hillary forecast to win 53.9% to 46.1% for Trump.

I really wish Mister Twilight would quit lying like this.

[RonniePudding]

23. +1

Another Putinite for my ignore list.

[Imperialism Inc.]

27. There are three different models which you can select

at the top of the left column; polls plus, polls only, and now cast.

The OP is about the now cast which shows what would happen if the election were today. As of 4:30 pm eastern it still shows Trump winning in the now-cast.

Luckily the election is not being held today so the one you linked to (polls only) is more appropriate long term. Still, slightly better than coin flip odds aren't exactly reassuring.

[Squinch]

28. And the one that projects the winner has Hillary by a large margin. As opposed to what the OP says.

[Tatiana]

17. Hillary will win Pennsylvania. Maybe Nevada too.

The rest is a toss up at this point. We must mobilize and GOTV.

[tallahasseedem]

18. Thanks for your concern.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Thank you for your genuine and heart fellt concern.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

24. Your concern is noted. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Michael Dukakis had a seventeen point lead at the end of his Convention. I NEVER LIE

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx


If there was a Now Cast model he would have had a less than one percent chance of winning. He lost in a landslide.