2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow can Dems stop losing the white vote by 20%+?
I was watching Van Jones and Anderson Cooper talk about how the Dems are playing to their base, so far in this convention.
Even for as much as Democrats have been openly gleeful the last few years about favorable demographics for them in elections, Donald Trump is leading in this race in most polls (for now), and while yea, its a convention bounce, it remains that:
1. America is still a majority white country
2. Hispanics increasingly see themselves as white
In 2012, Obama won the election nationally by 3.9% (close given that most poll margins of error max at 4%), and lost the white vote by 20%. According to a good Politico article, many Democrats are unsure how sustainable Obama-level turnout of AA vote is. This being said, how can the Democrats stop getting blown away in the white vote?
If Hillary could cut into Trump's white support, perhaps the election could be a blowout for her, which we'd all like to see. Also, what about 2020? When HRC runs for re-election in 2020, she'll be in the spot George HW Bush was in 1992; if the economy goes south, she's in big trouble, and needs insulation against a Rubio or Cruz, or perhaps Carson. Prepping for a rainy day is what anyone who is rich in anything, be it money, or votes, does.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)That is a GOP tactic.
MichiganVote
(21,086 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,761 posts)more than a tiny percentage of them will vote for Trump?
ericson00
(2,707 posts)which shouldn't be happening, especially given how hard he's trying with blacks (like Jamiel Shaw being the lead anti-Mexican up there).
gabeana
(3,166 posts)grubbs
(356 posts)That gives him a tiny fraction of the Hispanic vote. They have been traditionally voting republican for decades and have largely fallen into the same reflexive voting trap that many poor whites are in. They blame liberals for everything despite rethugs dominating almost all levels of government in many areas. If you can keep people ignorant and angry you can get them to vote against their interests.
TexasBushwhacker
(20,205 posts)uponit7771
(90,347 posts)JI7
(89,254 posts)And being opposed to abortion and same sex marriage.
still_one
(92,273 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)2020, when Obama's long gone from office, and beyond. And other polls are pretty close.
still_one
(92,273 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Plus, many hispanics who consider themselves white do not only consider themselves white. They still have ties to the Latin American community. Many black hispanics exist too, like myself.
Regardless of the fact that we lose the white vote, look at where the white vote is. The largest state is now majority minority with latinos making up the largest share. That state has the most electoral votes.
Since we don't get a president based off of the popular vote, but by the electoral college vote, we are basically just fighting out the swing states. Often in swing states, minorities are the deciding factor, and we black voters stand in long lines for democrats. We vote more than our share of the population.
Hispanics who see themselves as white don't automatically take on the voting habits of white republicans.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)who can pull the Hispanic vote within 10%, as he did in 2004. What happens if Rubio is the 2020 GOP nominee? Also, even tho Hispanics who see themselves as white don't automatically become Republicans, they could be more likely to do so.
You are largely right; this OP is more about prepping for the rainy day.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)to diversity. A white mother of a black child will be turned off by them, so would a white mother of a hispanic child. There are so many intersections of commonality between diverse groups. Many whites don't jus identify as White for White's sake. That's why will keep winning. Unless republicans turn into democrats they turn off more than they turn on.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)They are the party of division and it is a tactic that has worked throughout history. They are good at playing to the white mans fears. We have a party truly and openly pitting minorities against white men and women. Trump has even gone as far as the KKK at their height. Promoting people who look different as rapists. He is fucking doing this out in the open. An honest to goodness Klan tactic.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)That!/ not what we do and there are not enough racist to keep th gop going
forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)White people vote GOP because of racism, sexism, xenophobia and general bigotry. The only way to get a significant share of white GOP voters back is to start pandering to that shit, or for them to be less racist/sexist/xenophobic.
The Democrats are going in the exact opposite direction.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)there are many decent regular people who are Republicans who genuinely buy their economics and tough-on-crime ideals, even if their politicians do not. And those people vote.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)I know folks who are all in on the small government, low tax thing. They think that is the key to prosperity. And will not expressly racist and will critique those who make racist statements.
msongs
(67,421 posts)more than obama got thanks to trump being such an hispanic/latino hater
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)chascarrillo
(3,897 posts)Concerned about the white votes. Upset at non-US flags being displayed. Wants to ban Syrian refugees. This person is trolling the boards here.
Cosmocat
(14,566 posts)Nm
cstanleytech
(26,302 posts)and if they left the party because of Obamas skin color then the party is actually better off without them.
JI7
(89,254 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Please don't get me wrong, we should go after them and there is reason after reason for them to love our platform.
I still think we need to keep improving our social and economic justice platform and selling it to minorities and women. It's the right thing to do. Expand them as the base of the party. More of the white voters will come on board if we can level the playing field between corporate America and labor. That is also something we are focusing on.
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)A lot of the white vote is a product of that alienation.
baldguy
(36,649 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)TeeYiYi
(8,028 posts)Make higher education tuition-free.
TYY
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)uponit7771
(90,347 posts)Hekate
(90,737 posts)...who lost 2 cousins in the Twin Towers. You've got to go find that tape -- Hillary fought for them all tirelessly. I got chills. The guy is white, and he's union, and he will never ever forget her presence and her work and her personal touch.
Sweeney concluded bitterly, "And what was Donald Trump doing at that time?" Trump, after boasting that none of his properties had been damaged, took $150,000 from the federal fund designed to help Mom and Pop businesses devastated by the attacks.
My advice is to go ask THAT white guy.