The 2016 Election in One Chart (ElectoralVote.com)
Although the 2016 election may turn out a lot like the 2012 election once the votes are counted, the lines this year are being much more clearly drawn on education rather than on income or any other demographic characteristic. Consider this chart which shows the change in support for Hillary Clinton in 2016 vs. Barack Obama in 2012. The numbers in parentheses give how big a share of the electorate each group is.
Here you have it in a nutshell. College-educated voters, especially women, like Clinton more than they liked Obama. However, Clinton is doing 14% worse with men without a college degree than Obama did. This is the reason that the election is as close as it is. Non-college men are deserting the Democratic Party in droves, in large part because the system isn't working for them and Donald Trump claims he can fix it.
In terms of geography and electoral votes, Clinton could underperform Obama in states with large numbers of blue-collar workers, especially the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These are all states Obama won easily. On the other hand, highly educated states, such as Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina, might be easier for her. Florida, which has a large Latino population, might also be easier for Clinton. Thus we could possibly end up with a different map than last time. But don't bet on it. (V)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Jul27.html#item-3
How different would this projection be if noncollege white men weren''t letting Fox brainwash them constantly ?
