Ok, What does a Hillary Victory Electoral Map Look Like?

[LaydeeBug]

I know they're saying that Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida will all be the battleground states, but don't they *each* have Republican governors? I'm old enough to remember Florida 2000.

I think she might carry Arkansas. She might even have a shot in (dare I say it?) Texas.

What do you all think?

[tallahasseedem]

1. We definitely get

Obama's 2012 states will a shot at Indiana and North Carolina. You should have seen Chuck Todd and Steve Kornacki yesterday with their Trump win board. It was pretty pathetic.

Texas, Georgia, or Arizona would be my dream states!

[StevieM]

42. I don't think Arizona is as much of a dream state as Texas or Georgia. There is a lot of reason

to believe that we can win Arizona. They have a large Latino population and, needless to say, most Latinos despise Donald Trump.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. PA

If she wins PA it's a very narrow path for Trump. She'll carry VA and CO. So she could lose OH and FL and still win.

If she wins FL or GA it is over for Trump.

Oh, and the OH governor hates Trump.

The map is very very favorable, if the map were the other way around we would all be losing it. She's a 70% favorite right now and climbing.

[B Calm]

3. She needs to work hard in the rust belt. Bernie won Michigan and she needs to

focus there.

[RandySF]

4. Hillary won OH, PA and Nevada in 2008

And Obama still won them in the general.

[B Calm]

6. Did Obama ignore those states after he won the Democratic nomination?

[RandySF]

9. No

But they are traditional battleground states to begin with. Hillary won the CA, NY, and MA primaries but Obama didn't go there.

[B Calm]

13. She needs to realize that complacency is our biggest enemy.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

29. I think she is the last person on early who is complacent

[MohRokTah]

10. For the most part, yes, where PA is concerned.

Obama concentrated on the REAL battleground states in both 2008 and 2012.

[RandySF]

5. My Map

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/zwVZ8"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/zwVZ8">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

[DFW]

12. Almost agree with this map but for 2 states

I give the Democratic ticket at least an even chance of winning Ohio and New Hampshire. Possibly even Indiana and Arkansas, though they are long shots.

It makes me want to tear my hair in frustration that even ONE state has a majority of voters that would actually prefer to have Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Twenty years of Fox News" and National Hate Radio have had an effect on our national awareness that will not undone overnight, even if they both were to disappear tomorrow.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

24. Don't give up...

... on Ohio!

Clinton will win Ohio before she'll win Georgia. I'd like her to win them both, of course!

[RandySF]

25. Georgia

African American turnout plus college educated whites.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

33. Look at polling

Georgia has been leaning Trump in every poll that I've seen, whereas it's been a near-tie in Ohio.

The main concern for me has been the gradual loss of manufacturing jobs in Ohio over the years, but I'd still prefer to look at polling trends.

Ohio has a higher percentage of college grads than Georgia. At least it did just a few years ago:
http://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/new-state-state-college-attainment-numbers-show-progress-toward-2020-goal

Georgia will likely have a higher percentage of black voters, though.

EDIT: Oh! I see that you're originally from Michigan! (Lol.)

[Stargleamer]

28. well this is rather unconventional and optimistic

more conventionally I don't see Hillary winning in Utah or Georgia, but i do see her winning in Maine and New Hampshire. But I do know that that's a rather conventional way of looking at things.

[MohRokTah]

8. Pennsylvania being up for grabs is a quadrennial media mind fart.

Every four years, the media says Pennsylvania is up for grabs.

Every four years, the Republican ends up abandoning Pennsylvania early.

Every four years, the Democrat wins Pennsylvania.

[RandySF]

11. Romney fought to the end of it.

[MohRokTah]

15. "Mitt Romney Beats a Retreat in Crucial State of Pennsylvania"

From October 16, 2012:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/15/mitt-romney-beats-a-retreat-in-crucial-state-of-pennsylvania.html

[dawg]

17. At the last minute, they poured more money into the state.

Money that could have been spent instead in Ohio, where it actually had a chance to make a difference. Not that I minded.

[dawg]

16. Because he thought Ohio was already in the bag.

Thank God for Republican "unskewed" polls.

[apcalc]

30. Lots of disaffected traditional Dems

Might go for Trump....steel, coal workers.

I know Washington, Johnstown and the like....no hope, no money...

So sad.

[MohRokTah]

31. Same was said of disaffected PA Dems in 2008 with McCain and 2012 with Romney. eom

[StevieM]

43. I seem to remember that Bush fought to the end for Pennsylvania, ultimately coming within 2 points

of winning the state.

I think he visited it like 25 times before the campaign kicked off and about 20 times during the course of 2004.

In any event, this year could be different. We need to fight for every vote in every state that could potentially be close. Fortunately, Hillary has family history in the Scranton area.

I still wish she had picked Tom Vilsack, who grew up in Pittsburgh, to be her running-mate. Besides, Iowa was expected to be closer--and harder to win--than Virginia.

[MohRokTah]

44. BUSH BACK OFF IN PA. May be conceding state as race tightens in West

October 13, 2004:

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/bush-back-pa-conceding-state-race-tightens-west-article-1.632494

[StevieM]

45. This article proves my point. It says: "Bush has visited the Keystone State 39 times."

In other words, he spent 4 years laying the ground work for a GOP win in Pennsylvania.

Also, the article doesn't seem to make an accurate prediction. The Bush campaign denied that they were backing off PA and they still kept advertising in the state. And I am sure Bush wound up making more campaign stops there after the article was published. It was just journalistic speculation.

But what really matters is that we can't get complacent. Hillary needs to fight hard for PA in 2016, and after she wins she will also need to fight hard to win PA in her 2020 re-election.

[MohRokTah]

47. It prove my point. Media said PA was in play. Repunlican ended up abandonin it. Democrat won it. eom

[StevieM]

48. Kerry won it by just 2 points. I don't think the GOP abandoned it in 2004 and Hillary should not

take it for granted in 2016.

This is one article from one paper. Journalists get things wrong all the time.

Bush did in fact go back to PA that year, right before the election.

http://www.upi.com/News_Photos/view/upi/c0f8ca3dc1a7bffefdf341d53d0d72c5/BUSH-CAMPAIGNS-NEAR-PITTSBURGH/

[Proud Public Servant]

14. Start with the Obama 2012 map

Obama 332 - Romney 206.

She is not going to lose Pennsylvania (which has a Dem gov, btw) or Florida, so don't sweat that.

Worst case scenario: she might lose Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and Maine. That leaves her up 294-244.

Best case scenario: she retains the Obama states and picks up North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona for a 384-154 rout.

[LaydeeBug]

22. Oh that's right. He spoke for the Dem Delegation at the convetion *and* gave a speech the next day

I saw both and *still* cried chicken little.

this is why we can't have nice things

lol

[RandySF]

18. I have a question

Will Hillary go for the big electoral college win, or will she keep going to places like PA and WI to help senate candidates?

[Proud Public Servant]

20. Actually, most places with possible Senate pickups

are either battleground states or shaky Dem states, so she'll be spending lots of time there anyway. The exception is Illinois - an easy win for her, but it could use her help unseating Mark Kirk. How much time should she spend there? No idea.

[sofa king]

19. It's looking pretty good.

So good, in fact, that I continue to lobby hard for focus on House races, and I hope Mrs. Clinton adjusts her travel schedule to support possibly competitive House and Senate races. I fully expect President Obama to take on the entire Republican class of Senators up for reelection, because I think he considers it his duty as President to get his Supreme Court nominee considered and passed in early January, 2017.

Three states, in particular, are important in my mind, not because I think we have a solid chance of winning them but because we can force Republicans to bleed money unnecessarily there: Georgia, Florida and North Carolina. If Republicans can be forced to focus on states they should win out of hand at the Presidential level, that opens the door for us to focus funding in House and Senate races everywhere else.

Visualize total success, I have often cynically said. Now, it's not cynical.

(Edit: I should add that we also have an ace in the hole: Indian Country, particularly in South Dakota but also in Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan, and half a dozen other states. American Indian voters remember quite well how hard Bill Clinton worked for them, and who took it all away with the stroke of a pen as soon as he was gone. Turnout among eligible voters on reservations is usually less than 50%, but has on occasion jumped massively. In Donald Trump, they have a direct competitor who has repeatedly and directly attacked their income interests at the most base and fundamental levels. They could spell the difference in any close shave.)

[ebbie15644]

21. PA has a dem for gov. Governor Wolf

We have a republican state house and senate

[Rstrstx]

23. Current worst case a tie, realistically Clinton wins

This is all predicated on no giant bombshells. I'm sure we'll the continuation of these smaller bombshells (DNC leak, Trump twittering) but I don't see those throwing the election unless there are too many tilted towards one side

WORST CASE (7/30), CLOSEST CURRENT STATES ALL BREAK FOR TRUMP (UNLIKELY). REPUBLICANS LOVE THIS MAP BECAUSE THEY GET TO CHOOSE WHOMEVER THEY WANT FOR PRESIDENT


PESSIMISTIC CASE - CLINTON WINS ONLY ONE SMALL SWING STATE (I USED NV HERE, COULD JUST AS WELL BE IA OR NH)


OPTIMISTIC CASE - BEING AN OPTIMIST THIS IS MY FAVORED SCENARIO, THOUGH TRUMP MAY TAKE ONE OR TWO VERY CLOSE STATES. CLINTON STILL CRUISES TO COMFORTABLE WIN (MINIMUM 315 EVs)


CLINTON SURGE - I WOULD HAVE PUT TX AND A FEW MORE IN THE TOSS-UP COLUMN IN THERE AS WELL BUT BELIEVE THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE ANY NECESSARY MEASURES TO HOLD THEIR ANCHOR STATES. SHE WINS 360-400 EVs

[Orrex]

26. Pennsylvania trends Blue thanks to Pittsburgh and Philly

Much of the rest of the state, as has been famously noted, is very Red. My own county, with 7+ percent unemployment and <$30 median income, adores Trump.

It's far from certain that PA will go Democrat again, but I'd say there's better than a 50% chance.

[oberliner]

37. If we lost Pennsylvania we will lose the election

PA has voted Democratic in the last six elections.

[Orrex]

40. Every time NPR mentions PA, they insist that it's "uncertain"

I'm not convinced, and the urban population centers will likely save us from our proud Confederate flag-displaying neighbors, but I'd feel a lot better about it if I didn't see so many Trump signs in town.

[oberliner]

41. She will win Philadelphia by 400,000+ votes

That is a nice cushion for the rest of the state.

[Motley13]

27. She was 1st Lady of Arkansas

I think she can take it, I think Bill did

I can't see Trump winning NH, Bernie can help there

[oberliner]

38. She is down 10 points there

I don't see that happening. But I don't see us needing it.

[unitedwethrive]

46. Agree

[oberliner]

32. She just needs the Obama Electoral Map to hold

If she can hold on to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, then it's all systems go.

[AgadorSparticus]

35. I think that is very doable. Kaine should bring VA on board.

[oberliner]

36. We need non-whites to turn out in Obama-like numbers

Because the sad reality is that Trump will win with white voters by a substantial margin.

[LenaBaby61]

34. Arkansas & Texas?

No to both.

[Motley13]

39. Send Bubba to Arkansas

I agree TX is lost,