Trump is losing the African American vote to Hillary...89% to 2%

[Cali_Democrat]

I think it needs to be said...blacks are the smartest voters in America

There are a number of gems in the latest poll. For example, 33% of Trump voters think Hillary has ties to Lucifer.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_7302016.pdf

BTW, PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012.

[beachbum bob]

1. the 2% need some help

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Whites need more help....52% are supporting Trump....

Only 37% are supporting Hillary in this poll.

What the fuck is up with that?

[fleabiscuit]

22. That would correlate very closely to the college educated percentage that support HRC.

The republican party was taken over by white nationalists.

[grubbs]

3. They are attention whores

Who want to shock people by bucking the status quo. Many are older black women. This in in response to beach bum. I type slow

[cyndensco]

66. Or maybe they just like trump.

I don't get it, but the 2% have as much right to vote for Trump as anyone else does.

Every single election black folk who do not vote the way most of us do are vilified. They can choose who they vote for without being attention whores.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

26. I work with one of them, really strange guy

Ex-military gun nut first and foremost, but he will spew right-wing nonsense on most subjects if prompted. Has framed pictures of himself with George Bush Sr and Dick Cheney in his office.

[mythology]

53. To be fair, that's within the margin of error

It could actually be legit 0%.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. LOL!

I love it when PPP trolls those fools.

Q21 Do you think Hillary Clinton has ties to Lucifer, or not?
18%
Hillary Clinton has ties to Lucifer
.....................
61%
Hillary Clinton has no ties to Lucifer
................
21%
Not sure
.........................................................

On the other hand, the answers are pretty disturbing sometimes.

[yallerdawg]

27. However...

63% of Trump voters believe Hillary has or could have ties to Lucifer.

This means they are at least literally voting for the lesser of two evils!

And 33% think Clinton even has ties to Lucifer, to 36% who say they don't thinkso, and 31% who are unsure either way. Against that set of findings it's simply not very likely that many Trump voters will be moving into the Clinton column and that's why although she's certainly the favorite the chances of her winning a double digit victory are pretty minimal.

[No Vested Interest]

57. Lucifer question was in response to Ben Carson making a connection

between Hillary's thesis subject in college (name escapes me now) and that person's mention of Lucifer.

[No Vested Interest]

58. Even funnier was the question of Harambe running for office.

Harambe was the gorilla killed at the Cincinnati Zoo this summer when a child fell into the moat near his enclosure.

[oberliner]

5. Obama got 93% of the African American vote against Romney

So this would actually be a decline.

[Cali_Democrat]

6. Margin of error.....

Statistically, about the same.

Thanks for playing.

[oberliner]

7. The margin of error is 2.7%

So Obama's numbers in 2012 are higher than Hillary's in this poll even accounting for the margin of error.

[Cali_Democrat]

8. And what's the margin of error for the poll you cited?

[oberliner]

9. Look, my point is that 89% is not a great number

We need Hillary to be in the 91-93% range ideally.

And the number I cited isn't from a poll, it's the actual results of the 2012 election.

[Cali_Democrat]

10. We? LOL! Who do you think you're trying to fool?

Statistically, Hillary's support from blacks is roughly where Obama's was when you consider margin of error. You can't even give me the margin of error for the poll you cited.

There are also other polls which show Trump getting zero black support in PA and Ohio which makes sense.

Trump is a bigot and blacks ain't buying his bullshit.

Thanks for playing.

[oberliner]

12. Huh?

I did not "cite a poll" I provided the actually results of the last election. There is no "margin of error" because it is the actual percentage of the votes cast. Does that make sense?

I am not sure what you are talking about with "trying to fool" and "thanks for playing" and the like.

We need to Hillary to get 91-93 percent of the African-American vote for us to win the election. That was the point I was making. 89 percent is not a great number.

[woolldog]

14. your figure is based on exit poll data, no?

I mean they did not interview every single African American who voted in 2012 in order to come up with that 93% figure. That too is an estimate and has a margin of error.

[oberliner]

15. Yes, I realized my mistake and commented below

Dumb on my part. Apologies.

[woolldog]

18. we all have the same goal. Clinton winning.

[oberliner]

20. Yes, indeed

My assertion is that the key to her victory is big turnout among African-American and Latino voters.

I think that is the best recipe for success (rather than trying to persuade disaffected Republicans).

[Cali_Democrat]

16. Wrong. See my post below.

You're probably citing an exit poll.

You ever voted before? All you do is vote for the person, or proposition, etc. You don't disclose your race or ethnicity on a ballot.

Fail.

[oberliner]

17. Yes, I responded below

Apologies for the stupid mistake.

[StevieM]

28. I think she will ultimately win the AA vote 93-6. If Obama got 93% than Romney probably got 6%.

So I think the margin will be the same, even if it is a little less than Obama got against McCain.

Al Gore beat George W. Bush 90-9. I think we can beat that number.

[oberliner]

33. That would be a great result

That's why I was saying 89 percent isn't really a figure to get all that excited about.

93 would certainly work!

[StevieM]

36. But don't forget that those numbers include undecided voters.

So if it is 89-2 then that means that there are 9 percent undecided.

Let's say that 1 percent goes to other candidates (for AA voters that figure is usually much smaller than for the general population). That means that 8 percent still needs to be split up between Clinton and Trump. If it splits evenly then it becomes 93 HRC, 6 Trump. If Hillary gets 5 out of the 8 then it becomes HRC 94, Trump 5.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. 89-2

Gets out calculator and allocates the undecided accordingly:


HRC 98%

DT 2%

[John Poet]

64. Sounds reasonable to me. I was sitting here thinking, Hillary really

ought to get 98% of AA voters, versus Trump....

[Cali_Democrat]

11. You don't know what you're talking about.

There is no actual result since people can't analyze race on election ballots. We don't actually know how different races vote by looking at ballots. We can only go by regular polls and exit polls.

What you're likely citing is an exit poll.

Again, thanks for playing.

[oberliner]

13. That's a good point

I'll see if I can find a margin of error for the exit polls.

The point, though, that I hope we can both agree on, is that we need to get Hillary's numbers up among African-American voters and try to do everything possible to ensure maximum turnout.

[emulatorloo]

21. 89% out of 100% is not a "great" number?

This is taking the pessimist "glass is half empty" metaphor to a new extreme.

Again I understand your pessimism and yes we must work hard to get all voters out. But I see 89% a pretty damn good number.

[oberliner]

23. That would be the lowest percentage of any Democrat since 1996

Obama (twice), Kerry, and Gore were all 93% or higher.

[Cali_Democrat]

24. What were the numbers for Kerry and Gore? Can you please provide a link?

Thank you in advance.

[oberliner]

25. Kerry 93, Gore 95

According to the data at this link:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx

[StevieM]

29. I had heard different figures.

I heard that it was:

Gore 90, Bush 9
Kerry 88, Bush 11
Obama 96, McCain 3

[oberliner]

31. Yes, probably different polling outlets have different numbers

I am just going on what I saw from Gallup.

In any case, let's hope that Hillary has Obama-like numbers in the African-American community.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. It's not 89 out of 100. It's 89 out of 91.

Allocate the undecided and HRC wins African Americans 98 -2

If black turnout is 13% we start with 13% in the bank.

[Drunken Irishman]

40. No it's not the actual results of the 2012 election.

Those numbers are based on national exit polls. It's impossible to know the race of the person who cast a ballot without a survey, which, yes, does have a MOE.

[Rstrstx]

59. Awesome! So he could potentially get up to negative .7 percent of their vote?!

I suppose that might work if they could take their voting marker and scratch his name out so hard it would ruin the ballot below. Works for me. That sounds like what a lot of Hispanics down here want to do.

[NewJeffCT]

44. not just 93%

but, the turnout was great, too.

[woolldog]

19. My favorite was the OH poll where Trump was getting 0% of the black vote.

[Charles Bukowski]

30. I was led to believe

Obama's numbers with African-Americans were higher than normal. That they usually fell in the 88-90% range.

[UMTerp01]

32. I see something like this and my only focus is who the hell are those 2%?

I mean seriously y'all. I guess Omarosa, that crazy Sheriff who spoke at the RNC, and that gigolo pimp looking pastor

[oberliner]

34. The poll also shows 4 percent going for Gary Johnson

And another 4 percent for Jill Stein.

So that would be 4 times as many Johnson/Stein voters than Trump voters among African-Americans.

We should be able to get some of those voters over to our side.

[KMOD]

35. I think tRump will lose every single demographic except

white men in the 35-60 age range.

[getagrip_already]

42. You mean....

Non educated white males.......

[ChairmanAgnostic]

43. CONservative, bible beating, functionally illiterate

white men who feel like life dealt them a bad hand and want to destroy the system that did it to them.

[Minion Kevin]

45. Here is one in that demographic he won't get

I'm with them....Clinton Kaine 2016

[pansypoo53219]

37. the gnewz meeedeya will pimp the 2%.

[Jamaal510]

62. And maybe even

the other 9%.

[glennward]

38. Yes, but will they vote in large numbers?

talked to four millennial black men...all not voting for Hillary. Said they would rather sit home. Couldn't reason with these idiots at all. Hung up on TPP and BLM but for the life of me i could get them to explain their position. I even asked had any of them read the TPP or anything about the TPP. No, yes. They had read what was written about the TPP in the literature that Sanders supporters received. From whom? Dpn't know. Did they think Hillary AND Trump were against BLM? Yes. Did they trust Hillary to help resolve the problems with the criminal justice system? No. Did the believe that Trump would? Not sure.

Gave up.

[Jamaal510]

63. People like those

who you talked to act more based on emotion and gut feeling rather than reason. They don't care about details and probably don't pay enough attention. They just hear all the negative things about HC and roll with that, and they act as though it's too much work to do research on her stances. They see her and Obama being supportive and loyal towards each other and think that she automatically supports the TPP even though she has also voiced reservations about the plan. They'd rather be given whatever political red meat they crave, they'd rather have someone tell them everything they want to hear, and the person has to be loud. Hopefully there aren't too many potential voters like that in the outside world, but there's no shortage of them when I post in areas like The Grio's FB page. There are some reasonable commenters, but many others hate HC for totally made-up reasons (such as her supposedly being a "White supremacist" and secretly being friends with Trump). Trying to argue with a person like that is like pulling a tooth out of a lion.

[0nirevets]

39. Statistically Speaking 2% Is No Different That 0%

Trust me, I have a Master's. Stats are my baby. 2% support means no support at all, because the level of uncertainty (3%-5%) is greater than the margin of support. We have work to do, and we all have to show up on election day without fail. But if we do, and I think we will in historic numbers, then Trump isn't just going to lose, he's going to get trampled. Let's call it getting Trumpled. It's up to us. Love and power to all Democrats.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

41. How the fuck does he even get 2%?

[Moonwalk]

46. Trump has got Ben Carson, and I think some blacks voting for Trump....

...Are doing so because Ben Carson says they ought—just like Bernie has said to his supporters to vote for Hillary.

They might, in fact, be Seventh Day Adventists like Carson.

[0nirevets]

47. He Doesn't, But Allow Me to Wax Technical

Good question, really. For what it's worth: 89% vs 2% leaves 9% either non-response or uncertain. The 2% in our discussion is likely a sampling error, because no statistic is 100%, and the level of uncertainty is always 3%-5%. Meaning if you were to somehow magically interview every voting African American, which is impossible, you might find on the high side 7% (2+5=7) or on the low side -3% (2-5=-3, also impossible) who identified as Trump voters. But |-3%| > |2%|, meaning that the uncertainty is greater than the 2%. Bottom line, virtually no African American brothers and sisters will be voting for Trump! That misguided black man wearing a cowboy hat in Cleveland, plus Herman Cain and his busload of sycophants do not add up to even 1% of the African American vote, let alone 2%. Sorry, that's pretty technical, but there it is. Power to the People!

[oberliner]

50. Your information is not correct

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein each got 4 percent of the African-American vote in this poll.

Undecided was at 2 percent.

[0nirevets]

51. Actually, I Am Correct. Your Numbers Are Still Too Low To Matter

The "uncertainty" which you attribute to Stein and Johnson are each at less than 5% (I accounted for 11% total), each still less than the margin of uncertainty and anyway they only increase the uncertainty AGAINST. I didn't look at the original poll, so my bad, but the statement was "2%" for vs "89%" against. I'm still right and I could defend it in a paper. But whatever. The point is virtually no African Americans are voting FOR Trump.

[oberliner]

54. You wrote: "89% vs 2% leaves 9% either non-response or uncertain"

I was pointing out that your information in that regard was not correct.

The 9% were not "non-response or uncertain" as you asserted, they were 4% for Gary Johnson and 4% for Jill Stein.

As you acknowledge that you did not look at the original poll, I would think you would appreciate the accurate information.

[0nirevets]

56. My Bad, I Was Going By Numbers You Posted, But It Still Doesn't Change the Bottom Line

Nothing you're saying is changing the fact that statistically 0% of African Americans are voting for Trump. In fact, you're making my case even stronger. You might want to clarify how you state the numbers in future though. Also, when someone is giving you support, maybe think it through a bit before you try to negate them. Peace. Out.

[Cali_Democrat]

61. Boom!

You're right on point.

Statistically, Trump has zero AA support.

[Cali_Democrat]

60. Well said!

Welcome to DU!

[RandySF]

52. I read somewhere that minority children are telling parents they are afraid of Trump

There's no greater motivation than when your kids afraid of something. I think Hillary will get Obama-level turnout.

[C Moon]

55. That's nuts! Wow!! Woo hoo!

[Odin2005]

65. I've run into one of those 2%.

He's also gay. He calls Trump "Daddy".

[Scurrilous]

67. K & R