PPP North Carolina Poll: HRC: 43% Trump: 41%

[book_worm]

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Hillary Clinton leading in the state, albeit by a narrow margin, for the first time since March. She's at 43% to 41% for Donald Trump, 7% for Gary Johnson, and 2% for Jill Stein. In a head to head contest just between Clinton and Trump, she leads 47/46.

Voters haven't changed their feelings much about Clinton since our June poll in the state- her favorability rating was 39/55 then and it's 40/55 now. But Trump- already unpopular- has become even more so. He's seen a 7 point decline in his net popularity from -14 at 38/52 down to -21 at 37/58. His missteps from the last few weeks may be further damaging his reputation.

One finding from the poll that bodes particularly well for Clinton is that voters would prefer a continuation of the Obama administration to Trump's vision for the country, 50/45. When you look at who the undecideds are in the Clinton/Trump head to head it fits what we've found in our other recent polls. By a 33 point margin they prefer Obama over Trump and they have a positive view of Bernie Sanders, giving him a 45/28 favorability. They hate Trump- giving him a 1/94 favorability- but they're not much more favorable toward Clinton who comes in at 2/75. Because of the direction these folks prefer for the country it seems much more likely that they'll end up voting Clinton than Trump- or perhaps more likely than anything else staying home. At any rate it's more likely that they'll build Clinton's lead than eat into it when they come off the fence, and that's good news for Clinton given the advantage she already has.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-leads-in-nc-for-first-time-since-march.html

[Buckeye_Democrat]

1. Great! Beat the TAR out of Trump, North Carolina!

[book_worm]

2. Georgia, Virginia and possibly NC if HRC wins all three she will be president.

[Thrill]

3. I live in NC and if HRC is running is up big in Georgia

Its not that close in NC

[whatthehey]

4. It's a reach but possible.

The backlash against HB2 has wised up a lot of people on the negatives of extreme RW nuttery. The influx of people from other regions, me included, is not slowing and is heavily driven from deep blue areas further up the coast. Diversity is reasonable and increasing especially with Hispanics, and the old are dying off here like everywhere. It of course helps that their nominee is a sputtering feckless man-child and finally getting portrayed that way routinely in the media. A lot will depend on whether Charlotte and the Triangle turnout is better than...well almost everywhere else. Even where I am not far outside the latter, there are Trump flags and signs aplenty. We'll have to rely on our more cosmopolitan areas to overwhelm the insanity of the green rolling empty bits. I'm looking to this place as an early bellwether. If it goes D especially by anything beyond a gnat's hair it's likely safe to go to bed.

[glennward]

5. Give NC a chance. They will come around. nt

[writes3000]

6. Interesting insights on the undecideds. Encouraging.

[molova]

7. PPP polls no cell phones and has Hillary up by only 3 in PA

Just saying

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. Yep. They unfortunately leave many young people out that way.

[emulatorloo]

9. Do young people have the internets?

80% was landline, 20% was Internet for people who don't have landline

Methodology at link, in the attached PDF

"Public Policy Polling surveyed 830 likely voters from August 5th to 7th. The margin of error is +/-3.4%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel."

[Buckeye_Democrat]

10. Thanks. I didn't know that. They also get a B+ from Silver, I see.

[emulatorloo]

11. Yeah hopefully they'll update their methods. afaik most polling outfits are calling cel phones these

days

[molova]

12. The question is: do only 20% of young people have the Internet?

Do 80% of people have landline?

[emulatorloo]

13. I don't know. Methodology was if you don't have a landline you answer on the Internet.

maybe the olds don't have landlines, just Internet. I have no idea.

I sense you want to play some kind of nit-picky "gotcha" game with me, but I'm not gonna do that with you.

I already said most polling outfits are calling cel phones as well as landlines and hopefully PPP will update.

There's no "gotcha" to be had.

Have a nice day.

[molova]

14. You're answer made no sense

You speculate that old people may not have landlines.
Then who are the 80% who have landlines?
Old people are more likely than young people to have landlines.
Do 80% of likely voters have landlines?

[emulatorloo]

15. Ask PPP. It's their methodology, not mine

Let me make this clear.

I quoted the methodology from the poll, because there was a implied question about what it was.

That's it.

I don't give a shit about PPP.

I don't give a shit about this poll.

I don't give a shit about their methodology other than saying they outta improve it by adding cel phones.

Yr not gonna get a "gotcha" with me because there is nothing to get.

Have a nice evening.