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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP's Tom Jensen: Republican polling analysts are 'morons'
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/polls-in-the-end-ended-up-making-sense.htmlAnd the polling outfit that had as good a performance as any was one that may have sparked even more pre-election conservative ire than Silver. Public Policy Polling, a small polling firm in North Carolina, conducted a whopping 255 public polls in 2012, and it often seemed like polling skeptics (and even other pollsters) had a bone to pick with each one. This was partly because PPP uses automated dialers. It was also because PPP is a Democratic polling firm. But when the results came in, PPPs polls had called all 50 states correctly in the presidential race (assuming Florida ultimately goes to Obama), every Senate race, and every important ballot initiative. Its private polling like the 23 surveys it did of Kentucky legislative races for one client was similarly on the mark.
When I talked to Tom Jensen, PPPs director, this morning, he was understandably in the mood to gloat. These supposed polling experts on the conservative side are morons, Jensen crowed. Jay Cost the Weekly Standards polling expert whod waged a number-crunching war against PPP is an idiot.
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PPP's Tom Jensen: Republican polling analysts are 'morons' (Original Post)
geek tragedy
Nov 2012
OP
Some of those right-leaning polling firms like Gravis were exposed for being total frauds. nt.
OldDem2012
Nov 2012
#3
Gallup needs to start over. For the last couple of elections, they have become really unreliable.
yellowcanine
Nov 2012
#4
Third Doctor
(1,574 posts)1. Rasmussen and Gallup need to start taking notes.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)2. Rasmussen will not be doing telephone polls in 2016. nt
OldDem2012
(3,526 posts)3. Some of those right-leaning polling firms like Gravis were exposed for being total frauds. nt.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)4. Gallup needs to start over. For the last couple of elections, they have become really unreliable.
They tend to come in a little closer at the end but that in itself is very suspicious. How can they be so far off a week out from the election day results. Polls just don't move that quickly.
And it appears that the problem is with their likely voter model. If they scrapped it and just used registered voters they likely would have a much better result with less volatility.
ThoughtCriminal
(14,047 posts)5. Seemed like their RV demographics were also off
Gallup has sampling problems that were never fixed.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)6. Yes. They have been absolutely wrong in '08, '10 and now '12...
How their name endears is beyond me.