Why Are DUers Concerned That "The Race Is Close" When It Isn't?

[stopbush]

Just the usual Ds not being able to take yes for an answer, or something else?

[DURHAM D]

1. Something else. nt

[zappaman]

2. Something else. n/t

[nolabear]

3. It speaks to the magnitude of the horror.

If a Cat 5 hurricane has a fifteen per cent chance of blowing your area off the face of the earth that looks like a big threat.

[DarthDem]

4. Several Reasons

1. Many posters showing "concern" are "concern trolls," some perhaps even paid to do so, trying to demoralize Democrats on a widely-read online forum.

2. Some people seem to believe that voters will stay home in droves if they don't think that the race is close. In this vein, you almost always see, in any thread with a poll showing good news for Sec. Clinton, someone replying "GOTV!!!"

3. Some people are pessimistic or cautious or guarded by nature, particularly when the matter in question is pretty darn serious, as it is here.


I happen to agree with you that this race is not actually close, despite the MSM (and it's really mostly the TV networks) doing EVERYTHING it can to push a horserace narrative. We all know why the media wants that, of course. I also tend to think that Trump is overpolling what his actual election day showing will be, as did McCain, as did Mittbot.

In the final analysis, concern trolls aside, if legit Dems and members of this community want to be concerned, I get that and don't see the harm in it if the feeling is channeled positively.

[Hortensis]

13. Agree with you guys, it's not nearly as close as imagined.

Hillary has lead in all major indicators political scientists look at for the last year, including consistently leading by all the major indicators.

One can't help feeling some anxiety that Trump is just one election away from the White House, of course, but my real worry is for what will happen down-ballot. Please, let the dysfunctional right lose power across much of the nation, but no matter what lose control of the Senate.

[hamsterjill]

23. I fall into your reason # 3

I live in Texas and I never, ever, ever thought I'd see George W. Bush in the White House.

I don't take anything for granted. If that's a bad thing, so be it. I won't stop working to get Hillary elected until the voting booths here in Texas close on Election Day.

[politicaljunkie41910]

24. I don't think that people who have concerns are "concern trolls".

Hillary lost a lot of ground in a very short amount of time. No, I didn't think she was going to sail across the finish line, but this campaign has been like no other and I didn't expect her lead to drop so far so quickly. Also, we never know what to expect out of Comey and the Benghazi crew in the Congress. Not to mention Wikileaks, Putin, Snowden, good grief. Everyday you wake up to something new on the front page of the NY Times or WSJ, giving the lamestream media rats something else to chase their tails around in circles for the day, while none of the Trump shit seems to gain any traction no matter what he says or does.

[scaredoftrump]

53. I agree

Yes I agree with what you are saying. This is too stressful and the email scandal never seems to end. She had a commanding 8 point lead in National polls which has fallen to below 5 recently and Fox news polls are reporting a lead of only 2 points which is too close for comfort. In the meantime the conservative news media is bringing up her email scandal and Clinton Foundation reducing her favorability ratings. I understand that this is mostly a political ploy by the right but this is lowering her numbers. Clinton Foundation is a charitable organization that is helping save lives but her campaign is not saying this. Why? What is her strategy to counter this kind of press coverage? On the other hand, Trump has numerous scandals in his name hiring undocumented polish workers, Trump University, Trump model management etc. Why isn't her campaign hitting him hard with these issues.

[MadDAsHell]

58. Many posters are paid to convince us we don't need to vote.

By telling us Clinton has such a huge lead.

[DarthDem]

63. No, They Aren't

They are paid, however, to spread concern. And thanks for yours.

[emulatorloo]

5. I'm pissed off that media keeps lying about HRC and pretending Trump is a credible candidate

Last edited Fri Sep 2, 2016, 01:17 PM - Edit history (1)

They're basically doing a heavy duty Rove 101 on HRC: attack your opponents strengths and turn them into liabilities.

So non-stop lies and innuendos about the Clinton Foundation and her experience as SOS. Fucking Swiftboaters.

Otoh they are covering up the crazy when it comes to Trump, pretending his trip to Mexico as a great "presidential" triumph, and he's really a moderate Republican after all.

I don't know how this will effect voters in the end but I worry about it. HRC and Trump are more or less tied in Iowa. what the fuck! Iowa is pretty much reliably blue when it comes to presidential politics.

Agreed that race is not close, but these fuckers are working hard to destroy HRC. Yes the race is not close now, but so mad at these despicable shitheads for trying to turn that around.

[Hortensis]

17. +1 all the way through.

A propos of nothing, listening right now to Trump answering a Laura Ingraham question by saying they're going to be "very humane." Makes me think of euthanasia.

Interestingly, Kellyanne Conway's husband dated Ingraham for a while before marrying a person the writer I was reading described as an Ingraham clone--seemingly cute, perky Kellyanne of course.

[doc03]

6. We heard all the same bullshit from Republicans that trump was a a joke and

he took out all the Republicans. The polls are closing and we haven't even had a debate. The SOB knows how to manipulate the
media that is all he has done his entire life. I continually read posts here on DU that the election going to be a cakewalk, I don't
think so. If Trump shows up for a debate the media will say he looked presidential and declare him the winner no matter what he does or says.

[workinclasszero]

36. Right

And now the joke that didnt have a chance is their nominee!

[tblue37]

66. He doesn't even need to manipulate the media; the media are already working hard to

find ways to prop him up, even when he does something that should garner intensely negative media coverage. Furthermore, even when he is not doing something aimed at dominating the news cycle, the media go looking for ways to focus their coverage on him anyway, just as they look for negative stories on Clinton. If no new negative stories have been ginned up to attract their attention, they simply return to old zombie-lie "scandal" stories, no matter how thoroughly those stories have been debunked.

[jberryhill]

7. If I put a gun to your head and say there is a 10% chance it is loaded

Then you are going to sit calmly and say, "Oh, well, it's only 10%, go ahead and pull the trigger."

Or are you going to feel a little discomfort?

[stopbush]

54. Not if it's a toy gun,

or if you only threaten to put a gun to my head when it's obvious you don't have a gun in your possession.

Trump doesn't have a gun. Why pretend that he does?

[jberryhill]

60. He has a nonzero probability of winning. In the neighborhood of 10%

[OB44]

8. I'm not concerned at all. I'm anxious to get the voting started.

Obama beat Romney by almost 5 million votes. I find it hard to believe there is going to be a 5 million decline in the democratic vote. As a matter of fact I believe there are going to be many republican woman who are going to quietly get in that voting booth and vote for the first female president.

[renate]

9. for me, it's because I'm so sad and astonished that Trump is doing so well despite a crappy campaign

Despite his and his handlers having no idea what they're doing and Hillary's campaign being run by grownups, he's still going to win a considerable number of states. That is HORRIFYING. It boggles the imagination that someone like him could get more than 10% of the vote. I live in a blue state and I'm not surrounded by bigots in my daily life, so I'm truly shocked by what his campaign is revealing about America. I knew there were racists and morons aplenty here, but honestly had no idea that so many Americans were so gross.

A 1% chance of his winning is far too much. So while I don't think he'll end up winning, the stakes are WAY too high for me not to worry.

[Demsrule86]

22. He is not doing well... nt

[sarae]

40. This election has really brought out the racists.

I live in a very diverse area of Jersey City, NJ now, but I'm unfortunately all too familiar with the sections of the country that are swarming with ignorant Trump types. I grew up in, and spent most of my life in Atlanta, GA. Although Atlanta itself is okay, as soon as you venture out (which I had to do for work ) towards the suburbs and beyond it gets really bad, especially in the white rural areas.

Living in a blue state does make it much easier to forget those parts exist. I know NJ has a lot of Trump supporters, but luckily they're not in my area.

[bettyellen]

59. Hey neighbor!

[sarae]

62. Hey!

Nice to see another Jersey City-er here.

[tinrobot]

10. Because, even 10, 20 or 30 points is WAY too close.

He shouldn't be past single digits. Anything more than that is close enough to be scary.

[stopbush]

11. Says who? You?

Trump has as much chance of winning as the Twins have of winning the World Series this year. Ain't gonna happen.

To give Trump even a sliver of a chance to win, you have to believe that major voting blocs - Dems, women, minorities - are either going to stay home en masse or switch their vote to Trump in November. Not. Gonna. Happen.

All of the concern simply amplifies and feeds the media narrative. It has nothing to do with reality.

Hillary is in a better position than was Obama in either of his runs.

Trump is in a disastrous position when compared to past R candidates who lost in landslides. To imagine that a guy who can't even garner Bob Dole-level suport is some political genius just waiting to spring his master plan for victory is silly.

[tinrobot]

25. Yes... says me!

You don't have to school me in math. I took statistics. I understand that Hillary truly is the odds-on favorite at this point in time.

What I find very disturbing is that 30-40% of the American people would even consider voting for that guy. That number alone speaks to a dark undercurrent in this country that will not go away after the election. That needs to be addressed.

Until his numbers are in the single digits. we cannot rest. He needs to be crushed in the general, so that it sends a powerful message that we are a tolerant nation. We have a lot of work to do, not only in getting out the vote, but in quelling the hatred and negative stereotypes that this election has brought to the surface.

[stopbush]

26. A victory is a victory.

Whether Hillary wins by 1% or 10%, the Rs will not consider her to be legit. She could win by 25% and they will still start impeachment hearings ASAP. They're wallowing in their hate, and nothing will change that.

On the other hand, the majority that will elect her won't have those views. She'll be president and that is that. Moaning that she should have won by more only confirms the anti-Hillary stance of the media. Why enable that meme by buying into it?

[tinrobot]

37. Cripes. The margin of victory is absolutely important.

If she wins by only 1%, the Republicans probably maintain control of the Senate and we have gridlock.

If she wins by 7-10%, we'll probably take back the House.

If we wins by over 10%, then she has a very strong mandate to go along with control of Congress. That means we'll get a lot of progressive legislation passed. The few Republicans left standing will kick up a fuss, but they will not have the power to do much of anything.

I want the margin to be as big as possible.

[Silent3]

49. +1 n/t

[Orsino]

65. Of course the usual protofascist fucks will question Clinton's legitimacy.

But a narrow margin will mean that their excuses are taken more seriously, and that the Kochs figure (correctly) that a little more money could tip the balance even more in their favor.

You don't want a squeaker that doesn't resonate down the ballot or change the make-up of Congress. You want a loss so bad that the nation and the world are laughing at them. So do we all.

[scaredoftrump]

56. Trump opened my eyes

I agree when I came to this nation, I thought USA was a country that respected merit and social justice. The fact that Trump has 40% of the vote has opened my eyes.

[Person 2713]

57. Yeah it is not just him it's that 40% that is scary to anyone they consider ' an other '

Welcome to DU.

[MyNameGoesHere]

12. I use the two click method to find the answer.

It's usually spot on.

[Demsrule86]

21. Indeed it is .

[pnwmom]

14. Because we need a lead at least as big as Obama's to ensure that election fraud

won't determine the outcome.

And some of the recent polls give us pause.

[stopbush]

16. I believe that Rs do engage in voter fraud/suppression all the time,

but I question whether it can be effective in a race with more than a 3-point difference in the candidate polling. It's hard to make up the difference if you're trailing by 5-6 points on election day.

[zonkers]

20. Its a joke. Time for paper ballots only. Hand counts only, live streamed to the world. Billions

should be spent overhauling every facet of the voting system. Will it ever happen?


its that time of year to pass this one around:
election protection
http://www.866ourvote.org

[Koinos]

15. An insufferable number of American citizens are intellectually and morally deficient.

Of that group, the vast majority are older poorly educated and bigoted white males.

Civilized nations both laugh and cry at the state of white male human nature in America.

As a white male, I find it both saddening and embarrassing.

[Hekate]

18. I'm concerned that a lot of newbies are concerned*, but longtime DUers usually have....

...their thoughts in better order. The media wants the appearance of a horserace, that's one. Voter suppression techniques are a reality, and need to be addressed. And interference by a foreign nation is also a reality.

Our best bet is to GOTV and create a wave of victory for Clinton too big to be diminished by those trying to create the appearance of a narrow margin of victory for Trump. I think most are going with this.

[Demsrule86]

19. Something else. nt

[Dreamweaver 5.0]

27. I'm an old dog

I don't buy into the Trump hype.

He's a flash in the pan...a footnote in political history.
I let the younglings be fearfull for me.

Gives them something to do.
God bless 'em.

[Doodley]

29. I think the same thing, but we won't actually KNOW that for sure until after the election.

[Dreamweaver 5.0]

31. I agree we don't know but my gut says bet the farm

On a HRC victory.

[Doodley]

28. The race is too close for comfort. We are talking about a fascist taking power who has little regard

for human rights, the economy, the environment, international relations and security. He has halved Hillary's national lead in a fortnight. He could actually win, even according to Nate Silver. Let's not forget that. Everyone who realizes the danger of Trump should be concerned and not take for granted the idea that he cannot win.

[Demsrule86]

30. I don't think it is close. nt

[lapucelle]

32. I remember being burned in 2000 election.

It was almost incomprehensible that Bush could win over Gore, and there are troubling similarities in the ridiculous press narrative between that election and this one.

The man who went on to win the Nobel Peace prize for environmental activism was a liar and a fraud in the eyes of the press. The guy who went AWOL from the National Guard and who had an undisclosed arrest for DUI was the good old boy being fluffed by the media.

[Dreamweaver 5.0]

35. That election was STOLEN

By the old school, well oiled right wing political machine and Gore giving up the fight for the good of the country.

Trump and his ilk are way over their head in this race.

I think the big difference between now and 2000 is 75% of the Republican establishment do not want Trump in power.

They have to rebuild what he has destroyed.

They are political professionals and know when to stop digging.

A Trump presidency would effectively kill the Republican party for generations.

[lapucelle]

38. There's a great online book by Bob Somerby about the role the media played in putting W in the WH

http://howhegotthere.blogspot.com/

[radical noodle]

39. Yes!

Not quite like this one, but close. The media always weighs heavy on campaigns. They love to pick on some candidates over the most silly things while letting big things go.

[DonCoquixote]

33. Because

many of us remember in 2000 when no sane person thought we would elect Shrub to the Oval Office.

[apcalc]

34. Twice!

Never underestimate the stupidity of the electorate....

[lapucelle]

41. Or the complicity of a press working with a pre-scripted narrative.

[DonCoquixote]

48. we have a winner

and the media is even more complacent 16 years later.

[AlbertCat]

47. Twice!

C'mon guys!

We KNOW Dubya did not get elected in 2000. Don't say otherwise.

2004 maybe...barely.... but there were a lot of anomalies.

[AlbertCat]

42. no sane person thought we would elect Shrub to the Oval Office.

And we didn't. (never forget that or the way too many anomalies of 2004.)


But y'know....it's tough.

Logically she should win, no prob, against such a ridiculous candidate. Anthony Wiener should be able to win against such a ridiculous candidate!

But since when did logic have anything to do about it?

And La Clinton was suppose to glide smoothly thru the primaries.... but that isn't what happened at all.


She comes with tons of baggage....real and imagined. People are stupid and don't pay attention on top of being irrational. It's really impossible to predict, so....

Don't pretend it's a done deal. (even tho' it should be)

[jbond56]

43. Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

[Rex]

44. Trump...has

no chance, no chance in hell!

[demmiblue]

45. Disruptive meta. n/t

[peggysue2]

46. I think DUers and Dems in general . . .

perceive The Donald as such an enormous, repulsive threat that they would love to see 20 points between him and HRC. Just for peace of mind.

That being said, I don't think the endpoint is going to be that close. Trump has pissed off more people than he's smoozed and I suspect we'll see record turnout from Dems of every constituency. 2016 voters will vote as if their lives depended on it.

Because it will.

[kimbutgar]

50. I listen to Thom Hartmann and everyday he says "never underestimate Cheeto he could win"

I respect him so much I get chills and scared every time he says it. Thom is pretty astute on these things.

I will not relax until I hear Fox says on November 8th Hillary won in a landslide. 2 more months of this bull$hit can't end soon enough. Between his voice, ugly hair and face I am disgusted daily.

[stopbush]

52. Listen to Thom Hartmann and you believe the mob killed JFK

and you need to be investing in gold.

[tinrobot]

61. Just because a radio host is wrong on one thing doesn't mean he's wrong on all things.

Hartmann is 100% right that we cannot underestimate our opponent.

I'm happy we're currently ahead, but a win is not guaranteed at this point. We cannot be complacent. No gifts.

[WillyBrandt]

51. I'd rather feel foolish for over-caution than horrified because of complacency

[bigtree]

55. complacency

...turnout.

[Orsino]

64. It shouldn't be anywhere near as close as it is.

We need to see Trumpism rebuked by a much bigger loss than Romney's or McCain's. We need it to stick to every weenie that even tacitly supported it.

At a minimum, we need to frighten the GOP back into running qualified evil fuckheads. Narrow defeats only embolden them. I want them forced into at least a pretend autopsy.