***breaking***Sam Wang has HRC at 87%!

[triron]

http://election.princeton.edu/

[elleng]

1. NEW polls?

Link?

[triron]

3. Probability

of winning election.

[elleng]

4. Based on what?

What's 'breaking?'

[ffr]

2. Then we have to get voters to give her the congress she deserves!

Go for the throat.

L A N D S L I D E!

[elleng]

5. Right, but ain't gonna happen.

[ffr]

7. After the damage Don the Con did tonight? You can't be serious.

He is a national embarrassment and he has two more of these things to sit through. People are wondering if he's bow out of the remaining two.

[elleng]

10. I am serious.

I saw Sam Wang's numbers earlier today, and they were not good for Senate and House, hundreds of decisions separate from Presidential. One problem of Dem Party is, it appears, to neglect these 'down ballot' decisions.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2440970

Senate snapshot (47 polls): Dem+Ind: 49, GOP: 51

[ffr]

11. Let's hope and work toward proving that wrong.

The worst thing would be go give in. No race should be taken for granted in my book. If there are resources to take down republican seats, they should be focused on.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. inclined to agree but

[Loki Liesmith]

6. ipsos reuters polls

good for now, but those things are VOLATILE.

[kevin881]

8. I don't see that in the link... n/t

[Rstrstx]

12. Second row, Bayesian drift

It went from 79% yesterday to 87% today, and that was this afternoon before the debate. He only uses poll data so things like tonight's debate will take a few days at least to show up. A model that uses market prediction, instant polling or pundit analysis would be the only type that could show an uptick tonight, and I believe PEC doesn't use any of those.