Prediction Markets Score the Debate a Rout: Clinton Over Trump

[riversedge]

TWEET:
The Upshot ?@UpshotNYT 41s41 seconds ago

Bettors saw the debate as an overwhelming victory for Hillary Clinton. A shift like that is very unusual.







Prediction Markets Score the Debate a Rout: Clinton Over Trump


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/upshot/prediction-markets-score-it-a-rout-clinton-over-trump.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers SEPT. 27, 2016


According to the people who put money on the line in the political prediction markets, Hillary Clinton clearly won the first debate.

Here’s why the markets are a useful scorekeeper. ........................



Photo
A group playing debate bingo in Austin, Tex., on Monday night. Credit Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times



I watched Monday evening’s debate in split-screen, tracking movements in political prediction markets as the two candidates went back and forth. During the 90 minutes of the debate, nearly $1 million was traded on the prediction market at BetFair.com. Bettors liked what they saw from Mrs. Clinton. The first major shift in the odds occurred within the first half-hour, and the odds of a Clinton presidency continued to rise as the debate went on. At no point did the markets move in Donald J. Trump’s favor.

When he boasted of his temperament, the audience laughed, and the market tilted further against him.

All told, Mrs. Clinton’s odds of winning the election rose from around 63 percent in the minutes before the debate started to 69 percent by the end. Likewise, Mr. Trump’s chances of winning the White House declined by five percentage points. Other prediction markets, such as PredictIt, showed an even larger move against Mr. Trump.

The value of the dollar relative to the Mexican peso — which has come to be the financial price most closely associated with Mr. Trump’s electoral fortunes — also fell sharply during the debate, perhaps a sign that traders don’t believe that Mr. Trump will get a chance to raise trade barriers with Mexico.............................