2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama Cracks A Nate Silver Joke At Turkey Pardon
IGOR BOBIC 2:23 PM EST, WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 21, 2012
President Obama cracked a joke about New York Times polling guru Nate Silver at a White House turkey pardon ceremony on Wednesday.
Americans were invited to choose via a Facebook poll which of two birds -- Gobbler or Cobbler -- should be pardoned and named the official National Thanksgiving Turkey for 2012 on Tuesday. Obama announced Cobbler the winner, invoking Silver, whose model correctly predicted the electoral results in 49 out of 50 states on November 6th.
"Once again Nate Silver nailed it," Obama joked, before gesturing a cross over the turkey and completing the pardon. "The guy is amazing."
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http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-cracks-nate-silver-joke-at-turkey-pardon
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)49 of 50 in '08. Get yer facts straight.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)He had Florida at exactly 50:50 odds on his final run
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)All of this should call into question whether Florida represents a wise use of resources for Mr. Obama.
The same is partially true for Mr. Romney, although the situation is not quite symmetrical. If Mr. Romney were to disarm there first, while Mr. Obamas campaign continued to contest the state, Mr. Obama might improve the numbers enough to bring it closer to the national averages and improve the states ranking on the tipping-point list. If the reverse were true and Mr. Romney kept pouring resources into the state while Mr. Obama did not it would presumably go from somewhat Republican-leaning to being even more strongly in Mr. Romneys column, but would not pass through the electoral tipping point.
Still, if the recent polls and the FiveThirtyEight forecast are right, Mr. Obamas efforts to compete in Florida mostly serve the function of a bluff. They might be enough to prevent Mr. Romney from taking the state for granted, but that doesnt necessarily mean that Florida will be central to the electoral math on Nov. 6.
The reason that the forecast model views Pennsylvania as being more important than Florida is slightly more subtle than this, however.
Both states offer high upside for the candidates. But Mr. Romney has more incentive to pursue the high-risk path in Pennsylvania because his alternatives are worse, meaning that his opportunity costs are lower.
Mr. Romney certainly doesnt need Pennsylvania to win the election, but going for broke there is arguably a better strategy for him than having to pick off four or five states where they are now tied or where Mr. Obama holds a small lead.
Mr. Obama, conversely, just needs to hold his ground in those same states. Trying to pull Florida back into his column would represent a heavier lift and probably an inferior strategy given the recent polls there.
Cha
(297,275 posts)Community Organizing!
So much for "the Denver Debate"..
Thanks for the link, geek
Samantha
(9,314 posts)See post 33. I checked Nate everyday and I particularly had my eye on Florida. Is Florida the 50th state people are saying he miscalled? If so, that is incorrect.
Sam
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)But, the Obama people never thought they were just bluffing in Florida. Never.
The best prognosticator/data processing/modeling was always in Chicago.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)to an Obama victory within three weeks.
Silver's model wound up getting it right at the very end on Florida, but it was dead wrong in mid October.
Hyper_Eye
(675 posts)It's based on the current data. Florida turned blue right at the end. I believe the model switched it because that's what the data showed and I think it matches up with reality. We pulled out Florida in the end but I think Romney did have a lead there in mid-October. There is nothing that disputes that. The model changes with data and the final data showed a blue Florida. It was blue in the middle of the night before the polls opened and he deserves credit for 50/50. In 2008 he got 49/50.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)Depending on what issue rose to the forefront of the moment, Florida tilted left, then right, then left again at the last moment. Silver changed his prediction twice because Florida changed its mind twice. One of the prominent indicators of that was the heightened anger of the African-American community at the never-ending efforts to block their votes. Ironically enough, it might possibly have been that outrage of the voters in Florida that drove up the numbers to unexpected turnout rates. That turnout was a significant factor in the tipping of Florida from red to blue. And Silver saw it both times.
Sam
Cha
(297,275 posts)mzmolly
(50,993 posts)IIRC correctly?
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)Final forecast was exactly tied, the state was colored the lightest blue on his prediction map but am not sure why (he had no color for exact ties? or a tie goes to the incumbent perhaps if forced to choose?)
mzmolly
(50,993 posts)if you hover over the "State-by-State Probabilities" map, Florida specifically - you'll see Silver predicted Obama had a 50.3% chance of winning vs. Romney's 49.7% chance as of November 6th, 2012.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Caroline-Vivienne
(117 posts)Obama and Nate Silver in one post??
*faints*
Thrill
(19,178 posts)meti57b
(3,584 posts)I plan to finish the book, but if I don't, it is still a nice souvenir of the election.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)felix_numinous
(5,198 posts)would be if we counted all the stolen votes.
Response to DonViejo (Original post)
Post removed
Dark n Stormy Knight
(9,760 posts)for Nate Silver.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Silver should be honored to have had Obama make a joke about how good he is.