Salt Lake Tribune: ~33% more Democrats have cast early ballots in Utah than expected

[sunonmars]

We are spotting a pattern here all over the country.

About a third more Utah Democrats have voted so far than normally would be expected in early turnout for by-mail voting — while fewer-than-predicted Republicans are casting ballots.

"That shows us there is an excitement amongst Democrats," Utah Republican Party Chairman James Evans concedes, while "there is a frustration level amongst Republicans" with Donald Trump atop their ticket.

He says the situation is giving the Utah GOP some heartburn over how that will affect other state and local races.

So Evans is glad that several months ago, his party decided to skip its normal Plan A or even Plan B about how to get out the vote, and went straight to a "Plan T" developed just for this unusual presidential election year.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/4502030-155/in-early-utah-turnout-twice-as?platform=hootsuite

[saltpoint]

1. Decades-long plays to bigotry have consequences.

If Trump had not crushed his GOP rivals and won their nomination, there would not be one Republican in the country worried about political survival.

If the head of their ticket is depressing their odds of election, maybe they should stop pushing an anti-Science, anti-public education, anti-women, anti-Mexican, anti-Muslim etc agenda.

They could have stopped it at any time but let it stand. I hope the political price they pay is steep.

[SunSeeker]

2. "That shows us there is an excitement amongst Democrats"

Indeed there is!

[ffr]

3. K&R That's awesome news!

Now if we can get AZ along with us, NV, UT, and AZ will be a trifecta for Hillary and more dems down ticket.

MANDATE!

[MisterFred]

6. Down-ticket polling has been overwhelmingly pro-Republican in Utah. NT

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Enthusiasm

is fine, but remains to be seen if these numbers are incremental

Could be just early voters, or people are afraid to vote at the polls, or
by-mail is becoming more convenient

[MisterFred]

5. Maybe - I doubt the conclusions.

For the first time I can remember, Salt Lake County is aggressively pushing voting-by-mail. You're sent a mailed ballot regardless of if you request one. That being new, you can't compare this year's voting by mail numbers with previous years.

Especially state-wide!

Edit: not to say the new way of voting couldn't be good for Democrats (could drive up turnout in general) - but it's clearly statistical malpractice to draw conclusions when the circumstances surrounding voting-by-mail have changed so much.