New Republic Exclusive: The Internal Polls That Made Mitt Romney Think He'd Win

[TroyD]

Noam Scheiber

November 30, 2012 | 12:00 am

It’s no secret that the Romney campaign believed it was headed for victory on Election Day. A handful of outlets have reported that Team Romney’s internal polling showed North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia moving safely into his column and that it put him ahead in a few other swing states. When combined with Ohio, where the internal polling had him close, Romney was on track to secure all the electoral votes he needed to win the White House. The confidence in these numbers was such that Romney even passed on writing a concession speech, at least before the crotchety assignment-desk known as “reality” finally weighed in.

Less well-known, however, are the details of the polls that led Romney to believe he was so close to the presidency. Which other swing states did Romney believe he was leading in, and by how much? What did they tell him about where to spend his final hours of campaigning? Why was his team so sanguine about its own polling, even though it often parted company with the publicly available data? In an exclusive to The New Republic, a Romney aide has provided the campaign’s final internal polling numbers for six key states, along with additional breakdowns of the data, which the aide obtained from the campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse. Newhouse himself then discussed the numbers with TNR.

The numbers include internal polls conducted on Saturday, November 3, and Sunday, November 4, for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire. According to Newhouse, the campaign polled daily, then combined the results into two-day averages. The numbers for each day along with the averages are displayed in the chart below, followed by the actual result in each state:

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(more at link)

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/110597/exclusive-the-polls-made-mitt-romney-think-hed-win

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Next time somebody yaps about a candidate's "internals"

I'm posting this link.

The Romney campaign was run by buffoons.

[Mr.Turnip]

6. Buffoons who were paid a lot of money to be among the worst campaign teams iv ever seen.

Thanks Mitt! you're campaign even a month after continues to provide entertainment

[mzteaze]

8. So the question is...

1) Where they mismanaged by Romney and his campaign top dogs?

2) Where they "highly recommended" on paper and yet known around the industry for their deficiencies?

3) Obviously they aren't loyal to Romney so what other dirt will we get from them?

[brooklynite]

2. If Romney cared about the future of his Party...

...he'd publicize the name of the firm, and make sure they never worked for the GOP again.

But then, he have to explain why HE was stupid enough to hire them.

[wilt the stilt]

3. likely voters- skewed analysis

what pollsters miss is that democrats in general have lives. They don't obsess like conservatives. That is why progressive radio will probably never work. We don't put on fox 7x24 and we don't listen to Beck, Hannity and Limbaugh constantly. We go out to dinner , concerts and do other things. That is why even if we say we are a 7-8 in our interest in the election in presidential years we still vote. Conservative may score a 10 but it still is only one vote. Oh yeah we are also a enter left country- tell all your conservative friends that and watch their heads explode.

[get the red out]

4. Very true

We also don't get our marching orders on how to vote (or take them seriously if someone presents them) from the pulpit whether we go to Church or not. We don't think the "end times" are around the corner because of gay marriage and birth control and don't have a year's worth of food in the basement. We just don't live paranoid on a daily basis.

[TwilightGardener]

7. Conservatives are more driven and obsessed by politics.

Hate, anger, fear and greed are powerful motivators. But there's only so many of them, despite their constant presence in the newspaper comments and radio call shows.

[On the Road]

5. In All Honesty,

I am wondering if they weighted for party identification. That might explain it.