Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

[Cattledog]

This isn’t a secure map for Clinton at all. In a race where the popular vote is roughly tied nationally, Colorado and New Hampshire are toss-ups, and Clinton’s chances are only 60 to 65 percent in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has quite a gauntlet to run through to hold her firewall, and she doesn’t have a lot of good backup options. While she could still hold on to Nevada, it doesn’t have enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of Michigan or Pennsylvania. And while she could win North Carolina or Florida if polls hold where they are now, they’d verge on being lost causes if the race shifts by another few points toward Trump. In fact, Clinton would probably lose the Electoral College in the event of a very close national popular vote.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

[Avalux]

1. Donald will not flip a blue state red. Isn't going to happen unless there's monkey business. n/t

[still_one]

9. Looking at Nate Silver's Map, whose numbers would you rather have seven days before the election

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast

Democrats are getting out and voting, and I am really getting a little tired of these "concern" threads.

If those that seem to go out of their way posting these "danger" signals, and are a "concerned" as they appear to be, then might I suggest to them to get off their butts and do some phone banking into swing states

[book_worm]

2. Yet another bummer post, thanks.

[duffyduff]

3. Oh please.

Enough of this nonsense.

Nevada is in the bag for HRC, and it has been for weeks.

It has picked EVERY winning candidate for president from 1964 onwards.

[Cattledog]

7. NV went for Ford in 1976

[DarthDem]

4. No, He Doesn't

1. 538 gonna 538. Need to get those final-week ad clicks in!!

2. Not a secure map for her at all? Ugh, please. CO and NH are not tossups by any stretch of the imagination. Loss of Michigan or Pennsylvania? Ridiculous. She's well ahead in Nevada. And a popular/electoral split? Wow, they're really breaking down over there.

3. If this isn't a secure map for Clinton, what is it for Trumpster?

4. Why would anyone post this?

[pstokely]

5. HRC could lose Ohio and Iowa while winning Arizona and NV and due to the hispanic vote (or lack of)

IA is mostly white, OH is mostly white outside the cities

[ginnyinWI]

6. Wisconsin is always light blue.

It won't flip red.

[dawg]

8. Let me summarize that for you.

Trump has a path to victory ... but only if more people decide to vote for him.

[regnaD kciN]

10. Better send that info to Sam Wang, Upshot…

…the HuffPost and DKos elections modelers -- all of which show a Clinton win probability of 89%-98.2%.

[Norbert]

11. Yes, Trump has a path to victory

No! Wait!

[AmericanMan1958]

12. Is Nate Click-baiting?

Poll AVG 10/31
New Hampshire Clinton +4.7
Wisconsin Clinton +5.7
Michigan Clinton +7.0
Pennsylvania Clinton +6.0

[TrekLuver]

13. New Hampshire is a Toss up???? I don't think so

[helpisontheway]

14. Okay Nate since it will be so easy for Trump then up it to a 50/50 race. So sick of this shit! nt

[The River]

15. The Only Path He's On is

the Road to Hell in a hand basket full of down ticket Repugnants.
Hardly a path that leads to victory.

[SwankyXomb]

16. Concern and Red Hat noted.

[UTLonghorn]

17. 538

has become nothing more than clickbait nonsense. Follow Harry Enten on twitter instead. He's a 538 contributor, but seems to routinely contradict the horse race crap that Nate pushes. It's sad to see really. I used to follow Nate religiously, but now that 538 has grown into such a behemoth, Nate seems to be more interested in bringing in traffic by playing up Trump's odds.

[MSMITH33156]

18. Very click bait

Because the article basically has 2 points:

1) Trump has (almost) no path if he loses the popular vote by 3-5 points

2) Trump has many paths if the popular vote is within 2 points

The race is currently in category 1 on his own site. His current projection is Hillary by 3.8%, so he's basically saying if Hillary loses half her lead, then Trump has a possible chance to win.

Headline is meant for clicks, message is actually saying that as is, Trump has almost no path and he needs to somehow knock her lead way down.