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factfinder_77

(841 posts)
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 01:26 AM Nov 2016

TargetSmart: Clinton outpaces Trump by + 17 % margin - 55 % to 38 % among early voters in Florida

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

As of the morning of November 1 st , 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida.
Leveraging TargetSmart’s proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they
had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent. Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot.

Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubio’s direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubio’s 47 percent. And, among non -early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphy’s 39 percent.

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TargetSmart: Clinton outpaces Trump by + 17 % margin - 55 % to 38 % among early voters in Florida (Original Post) factfinder_77 Nov 2016 OP
Wait until the next rapey tape is dropped... Jnew28 Nov 2016 #1
I posted this earlier tonite triron Nov 2016 #2
Triron: crossover votes are common, the database of 2008 and 2012 tells HRC and they may have MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #3

triron

(22,006 posts)
2. I posted this earlier tonite
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 01:52 AM
Nov 2016

but needs exposure so thank you.
I have to ask this question: Is a voter who has already voted less likely to answer a poll?
Don't know if any studies have been done on this.
The reason I suspect it may be true is it may account for some tendency of polls to trend toward tightening.
Just a hypothesis.

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)
3. Triron: crossover votes are common, the database of 2008 and 2012 tells HRC and they may have
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 02:00 AM
Nov 2016

shared with Dem firm targetsmart to find out how many defections really happened. So with pretty good accuracy they can figure out defections... btw even if defections stops, HRC still wins by +1... why we can trust a 500 voters monmouth poll but why we have trouble trusting Exit + EV data ?

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