MSNBC/Brian Williams: Florida survey: 28% of -GOP- early voters picking Clinton

[Warren DeMontague]

http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/florida-survey-28-of-gop-early-voters-picking-clinton-798821443850

[anamandujano]

1. Sounds good to me. REC!

[INdemo]

2. It's rigged

[Hortensis]

3. Joking, I imagine? It's more accurate than polls of

prospective voters because it polls people who have already voted on how they voted. Florida publishes the names of people who have voted, so the pollsters also have data on party registration, age, sex, race and ethnicity, and other factors.

Pew, "the gold standard" in this industry, has also chosen this polling company to do some work for them.

What I'm actually really happy about is the suggestion that a very significant number of Republicans are emphatically rejecting Trump's hateful tear-up-the-Constitution barbarism. Whatever the true counts turn out to be, I'm so glad.

[Sunsky]

4. I believe this

This validates what I've been hearing and many voted third party as well.

[geek tragedy]

5. Clinton +8, Trump +6 according to two different polls this week using the actual voter file

What does that mean? Average the polls.

[davidn3600]

6. It means the polls are bullshit

They are all over the place.

This campaign needs to seriously stop acting like it's in the bag. The pollsters do not have an accurate pulse of the electorate right now. It's a very fluid situation.

[geek tragedy]

9. the campaign is taking nothing for granted and is not acting like they have

it in the bag.

[Warren DeMontague]

10. I agree. The data is, as Nate Silver puts it, "noisy"

Still, given the high number of Jewish voters in FL, maybe "Jew-S-A" yelling guy didn't help Trump there so much.

[Dem2]

7. Anecdotal evidence of Cubans I know who live in Florida

People I know who have moved to Florida and are generally apolitical are posting anti-Trump & pro-Clinton posts on Facebook.

This means that they feel comfortable enough to post this in front of their fellow Cubans, who, as I know from growing up with them, tend to be conservative. I'm hoping this is the big surprise this cycle.

[JCMach1]

8. Where are the R's in the poll from?

N. Florida (where a majority of R's are who vote in a given election) is bright Tea Party Red (think HEAVY TRUMP)? South Florida R's are not as Tea Party, older, and more Hispanic.

While I would like to believe Hillary is +8, knowing Florida I don't buy it unless the poll balance geographic regions of the state by party.

[napkinz]

11. K&R