In light of the Florida poll of early voters,

[MineralMan]

I'm doubling down on my 350+ electoral vote for Hillary prediction. I first made that prediction months ago, and I see no reason to change it.

Moderate Republicans will vote for Hillary Clinton in surprisingly high numbers, particularly among women.

That's the real hidden vote. It's for Hillary, not Trump.

Vote splitting will happen in many, many places and is not being seen by traditional pollsters.

[Pacifist Patriot]

1. I too have been saying for awhile that this election is going to surprise a lot of people.

I'm an out and proud Democrat to the amusement of my largely Republican colleagues and neighbors. This is the first time I can recall Republicans sidling up to me to confess their secret vote switch. Something they will not admit to family, fellow Republicans, pollsters, etc.

[kstewart33]

2. Target Smart poll is questionable.

Republican to Clinton crossovers is a real story, but it's difficult to believe 28%. Target Smart is a virtual unknown in the polling world and Nate Silver has discounted it.

[MineralMan]

5. We shall see. It certainly reflected my thinking on

how the election will go. If it's right, I'm right. If not, well...

[kstewart33]

25. I so so hope you are right.

You've been right about most things for a long time. So I'll be hopeful and think: Why not this time?

[tableturner]

6. Many GOP Hispanics will be voting for Clinton, than add in college educated

men and especially women, THAT is how 28% of the GOP votes for Hillary in Florida.

[Motley13]

26. + Cubans that normally vote repug

[bigdarryl]

9. Nate Silver isn't the be all for everything

[world wide wally]

11. He's actually pretty shitty at sports ^

[Cryptoad]

16. Nate starting to act like he wants his own slot to be on Trump Reality TV next year

[redwing69]

10. Embargo

It might be high, but I think people have forgotten about the fact that Trump violated the Cuban embargo. If we are looking for a reason Cuban Americans might drop Trump, that's it. Perhaps that story had more staying power than we thought? At least in south Florida.

[wryter2000]

12. Welcome to DU

[calimary]

18. Welcome to DU, redwing69!

Good point. I'm hopeful that the results next Tuesday night deal The Donald one humdinger of a public humiliation. America Says "NO" to Donald Trump! I've known a few people who, I strongly suspected, had never been told "NO" when they were misbehaving kids who NEEDED some adult behavior-checking.

I have at least one distant relative like that. I actually told him "NO" in a really loud and jolting way at a large extended-family dinner table one night. In front of everybody. Sorry - I'd just reached my breaking point with him. His reaction: so stunned and shocked that he was literally rendered speechless. He dropped his napkin on the table, got up, and made a beeline for the door, in complete silence - never to be seen again at ANY further family gatherings where he knew I'd be attending. That told me everything I'd ever needed to know about his inner psyche. This was one individual who had NEVER been told "NO" before. He was kind of an extended-family "sun god," the "golden boy" who was the star jock in high school, the A-student, the good-looking cocky swaggering dude who always got the prettiest girl. I suspected he'd never been disciplined, put in his place, told off, scolded or in any way reprimanded for bad behavior, never had to pay for any shit he pulled, never ANY consequences for acting like an asshole and treating people badly. Everybody always coddled him and flattered him and made excuses and let him get away with everything and anything. "Free-pass Freddy," you might call him.

Well, I'd finally had enough of him that night, and I reached critical mass in front of everybody. And he skedaddled outta there like the phony arrogant blowhard paper tiger he really was. We didn't see him again for another 20+ years. By then, btw, he'd lived a little. Got banged around and roughed up by life and times and the real world in which we ALL have to find a way to function. By the time we saw him again, he'd had a chance to taste a few servings of humble pie and reality smacking him in the face. And he was a lot more human, and even approachable - even by me. Sometimes life has to sand the rough edges down on some people. Life, and the passage of time, and the fickleness of fate can all serve as great levelers.

[triron]

14. The early vote result is not a 'poll' in the normal sense

It is more like an exit poll of early voters except they also verified the voter had actually voted and what their affiliation was.

[DLCWIdem]

29. I think there's an extra population of repug swing voters in Florids

There is a number of dual citizenship affluent Jewish voters in Florida who usually vote Republican. I saw a thread that his team was making a special effort to register them. In light of the Nazi sentiments shown to be coming out of his rallies I don't think they will be votings for him. They wouldn't appreciate the target he had drawn on their backs. Still another group he has alienated with his rhetoric.

[NewJeffCT]

3. I think a big difference is also

that she has a good GOTV operation, while trump's is basically nothing.

[Raster]

4. I concur. The hidden vote --though not necessarily FOR Clinton-- is definitely...

...AGAINST Trump.

[JCMach1]

7. I think the Florida poll is overstated. I want to know what part of the State the R sample is from

North Florida R's tend to be Tea Party Red (those are the majority of all R's who vote in any state election). South Florida R's are not as Tea Party Red and tend to be more Hispanic (i.e. Cuban).

I still think FL is much closer than +8.

[MineralMan]

8. Different people see things differently.

I think, and predict a 350+ electoral vote win for Hillary, based on a number of reasons. Whether I'm right or not will be clear on November 9. If I'm wrong, I will certainly post that I was wrong.

One of the factors in my opinion is the belief that many moderate Republicans, especially women, will vote for Hillary Clinton. In the voting booth, nobody knows how you voted. There's freedom in that fact.

Many people will vote in ways that people, even those close to them, don't expect, I believe.

But, we'll have to wait a few days to see if I'm right. If I am, it will be very clearly reflected in the results.

[JCMach1]

31. My prediction had HRC at 361...

Still sticking by that... just don't believe the Florida poll.

[ffr]

13. Financial markets want Hillary Clinton too. Republicans are ruled by $$$. They'll react...

and probably already have reacted, crossing party lines to vote their pocketbook.

[tallahasseedem]

15. Great post MineralMan!

I feel it too, but damn my nerves are shot with all of this craziness.

[MineralMan]

17. Our individual nerves won't affect anything, so

I'm doing what my doctor says and staying calm and keeping my blood pressure down. I don't worry a bit about day to day news about the election. Instead, I'm following longer range reports and looking at numbers. All the while, I'm thinking about this election based on over 50 years of following presidential elections.

I think Hillary has this one in the bag, but continuing GOTV will provide even more certainty.

[triron]

19. I recall another poll done about 1 week ago

(so earlier in the early voting) that actually asked voters who they voted for (if they already voted)
and they broke by roughly the same margin as this TargetSmart poll. Tried to go back and find it posted but could not.

[MineralMan]

20. Thanks. I didn't see that one, but it reflects

my opinion on this election.

We'll see on Tuesday!

[Xipe Totec]

21. Trump's coat tails look like a thong

Trump supporters will not support down ticket Republicans that did not support Trump, And Republicans that can't stand Trump may either stay home, vote for Hillary, or only vote for the down ticket Republican candidates.

It's going to be a pig slaughter on election night.

[Hekate]

22. Now that's an image (thong) I won't soon forget!

Yikes.

[berksdem]

23. Never wanted...

To see a slaughter so bad in my life. I would love nothing more to see Trump lose in the most "bigly" way.

[llmart]

24. Me too!

I also want this to be a repudiation on the mainstream media. They're the ones who have tried to make this a neck and neck race, especially recently and they're the ones who gave this bloviating jackass all the free press coverage. Maybe if she gives him a royal shellacking, more people will think about ignoring the media next time around.

[kwolf68]

27. Hillary's support is soft

So it's no shock things are close in the battleground states. These are the two least popular candidates in the history of polling data. Fortunately, Hillary is only the 2nd least popular as the Orange Clown is the least popular ever.

[MineralMan]

28. Things are generally pretty close, you know.

We're a divided nation, politically. Nationally, the margin of victory for President is small - just a few percentage points. In the battleground states, it's always equally close. That's why they're battleground states.

This country is very close to evenly divided by party. It has been for a long time.

Presidents are elected by a plurality almost always. Think about that.

There's never really a mandate today. Congress will remain divided as well. It's the nature of the game in the USA.

I do not foresee any major change in that anytime soon.

[Loge23]

30. 2 more for HRC!

Spouse and I are in today for HRC and the D ticket in FL!
The racists were all out in front but wisely left their hoods and robes at home.
An R county candidate approached me to consider him but I politely informed him that I don't vote for republicans.