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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI recommend the Upshot over Five Thirty Eight for feeling a little better
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
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I recommend the Upshot over Five Thirty Eight for feeling a little better (Original Post)
LAS14
Nov 2016
OP
the Princeton consortium has always been very favorable to Hillary and more than 538
Fast Walker 52
Nov 2016
#7
Dem2
(8,168 posts)1. Maybe drop a link here
I don't have it in my politics folder.
getagrip_already
(14,757 posts)2. this one?
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)3. link?
All the other polls are pretty stable, with the exception of Five Thirty Eight. I know everyone says, just dismiss it, but it kind of glares out there begging for attention.
Demsrule86
(68,582 posts)4. thanks!
Demsrule86
(68,582 posts)5. Thanks
LAS14
(13,783 posts)6. Link to the Upshot
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)7. the Princeton consortium has always been very favorable to Hillary and more than 538
currently she has a 98-99% chance of winning
http://election.princeton.edu/faq/
LAS14
(13,783 posts)9. Do you know how long this has been around? It's history of accuracy?
I believe the Upshot is fairly new, but I'm not sure about that.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)10. Sam Wang at PEC has had that site up since 2008 I believe
And his accuracy has rivaled 538.
edit to add the about page says 2004: http://election.princeton.edu/about/
Dem2
(8,168 posts)8. I like how they compare their predictions to the competitors
That's a super useful table.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)11. I saw that once but can't find it again. Can you give me a script or a link?
Or a script to get there would be better so I don't have to save one more link.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)13. it's on this page farthur down
Towlie
(5,324 posts)14. So Trump's chance is better than 3 coin flips all landing heads.
I'd feel better if it was 3 coin flips all landing on edge.