Looks like the Comey sucker punch failed 538 shows 70+% is the bottom for Clinton

[Monk06]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If she holds at 70 in the next few days then the FBI interference has failed and no new dumps will make a difference

[Coyotl]

1. That wasn't a sucker punch, it was trolling America.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

5. What makes you think it's the bottom? n/m

[Awsi Dooger]

6. 70% likelihood is equal to 4.5 point favorite in football

Last edited Wed Nov 2, 2016, 02:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Prior to Comey, Nate Silver had Hilllary at 81%.

That 81% is the equivalent of a 9.5 point favorite in an NFL game. I am incorporating money line (straight up) relationship to the pointspread, based on charts and my 30+ years of experience.

So it's absurd to pretend there hasn't been a dramatic shift. If the odds plummeted on an NFL game from -9.5 to -4.5 in a few days, everybody in the wagering community would be scrambling to understand what happened. Or it could be very obvious. An injury to an elite quarterback replaced by a shaky backup could be worth 5 points adjustment in the spread, although normally it would be less than that.

On edit: Here is that NFL money line chart. It's a bit different than the one I use, but close enough after a quick online search. You'll notice that an edge of slightly above 4/1 (81%) equates to 9.5 point favoritism. Slightly above 3/1 (76%), which is where Nate moved the race after early Comey news drops matters to 7.5 point favoritism. Now the drop to 70%, which is slightly above 2/1, drops further. This is hardly linear. Losing 5 or 6% in a lower range is more significant. In my chart 70% is tight to 4.5 point favoritism. In the linked version it's closer to 5 point favoritism. I'll accept that. I researched win probability based on pointspread decades ago and came up with a homemade chart. Other versions may vary somewhat, but not significantly.

http://www.sportility.net/nfl/moneyline_points.html

There is juice on both sides. For a man to man price, which is what we're interested in, split the difference. For example, at -470 (470 to win 100) and +375 (100 to win 375) at 9.5 point favoritism, the no-juice middle would be slightly above 4/1 theoretical edge, which aligns with that 81% from Nate's site pre-Comey.

[obamanut2012]

7. It was 69% today

[trof]

8. PredictWise has it 84-16

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

Election Betting Odds (bookies) has it 71.7 - 26.8
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

[budkin]

9. Hope so

I was in an absolute funk all weekend.

[StevieM]

14. The sucker punch worked like a charm. Clinton was on track for a 10 point win.

Comey and Chaffetz have successfully deceived the public with their violation of the Hatch Act.

I thought we had a chance of taking the House back. Now that is over. And the Senate will be close.

Hillary will still win, just not by as wide of a margin.