What's with Nate Silver and 538?????

[Norbert]

It continues to have HRC on the downward trend (now 68.5%) and Tangelo Soldier doing just the opposite. It's the only aggregator site that is doing this.

[budkin]

1. It's just the model... highly weighted polls there are coming in bad for Hillary but...

I doubt it drops more than this though, remember that polls are a lagging indicator and this is the tail end of the Comey effect.

[AllTooEasy]

7. It ain't Nate's fault that there are so many stupid people in the US

Polls count the numbers. Nate rates and aggregates the polls. He presents the results. Don't blame Nate for being the bearer of bad news. There are 10s of millions of stupid f@#$ers in this country.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Be prepared for more downward movement

I expected that Hillary's worst polling days would be Monday through Wednesday of this week, after the Comey and warrant news had settled for a few days.

If so, those polls won't be released until later this week or early on the weekend.

I think Hillary will rebound somewhat in polls taken later this week but those won't show up in public polls until a day or two before election day.

Beware of the same Trump Rebound theme on cable shows throughout the week and into the weekend.

[LostinRed]

4. He explained this awhile back

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

[LenaBaby61]

5. This election cycle...

Nate's been more bullish on tRump this election cycle and Sam has been more bullish on Hillary over @ Princeton Consortium.

(Personally, I've been over @ Sam's sight more this election cycle )

[helpisontheway]

6. I think he is gonna let it continue to drop until it is 50/59

Then he will not be blamed if he is wrong.

[Ace Rothstein]

8. He doesn't "let" anything happen.

He has a model, plugs numbers in and reports the result.

[forjusticethunders]

11. A statistical model is as good as what you put into it

Garbage in, garbage out, and Shillver is putting in a lot of garbage.

[forjusticethunders]

10. Nate Shillver trying to get them adbux