Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

kevin881

(465 posts) Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:00 PM Nov 2016

538 just turned NC pink and FLA 50-50

But no new data update? WTF.

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 just turned NC pink and FLA 50-50 (Original Post) kevin881 Nov 2016 OP

You do understand jcgoldie Nov 2016 #4

Quinnipiac just gave HRC leads in NC and Florida. book_worm Nov 2016 #5

538.... getagrip_already Nov 2016 #7

Dec 1969 #

jcgoldie

(11,631 posts)

4. You do understand

Reply to kevin881 (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:08 PM

Nov 2016

The percentages for each state do not exist in a vacuum. You don't have to have new polls specifically for those states for the polls from other states to affect them. The theory is that the state numbers are not entirely independent of one another. If Trump wins Nevada, for example, then he's probably more likely to do better in NC as well.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

5. Quinnipiac just gave HRC leads in NC and Florida.

Reply to kevin881 (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:26 PM

Nov 2016

getagrip_already

(14,758 posts)

7. 538....

Reply to kevin881 (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:43 PM

Nov 2016

is a very complicated beast. Trust it or use another aggregator. Understanding it takes a lot of effort.

Just realize the way it works makes it very conservative. It takes a pessimistic view of things most of the time. It is usually closer to unity than other aggregators.

Reply to this discussion