Texas Keeps on Rockin (don't bother knockin!)

[reasonabletexan]

Early vote and absentee vote continue to blow the doors off in Texas.

The Secretary of State just publishes the 15 largest counties (and indeed, some are quite red). Regardless:

Day 9 (of 12) totals:

2016 3,311,159, or 33.93% of all registered voters

2012 2,430,874, or 28.09% of all registered voters

2008 2,390,051, or 28.25% of all registered voters

The key takeaway for me is that the total early and absentee votes in 2012 was 3,407,497 (39.38%) and in 2008 was 3,556,156 (42.03%). If we continue to add roughly 3-4% early vote for the last three days (and the last day of early voting is always the biggest), we will eclipse the 2008 percentages. Multiply this percentage with the total number of registered voters (which numbers swelled 12.8% since 2012), and we are looking at the potential for 45% early vote, which would be 4,391,908 early/absentee votes, almost ONE MILLION more than 2012.

That is a lot of votes!

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

[Farmgirl1961]

1. Wow! Go Texas

Is there any way to look at breakout of Dems, Republicans and Independents?

[reasonabletexan]

3. Not very accurate

In Harris County, Charles Kuffner (offthekuff.com) does a good job monitoring that as best he can (primary voting history). The last numbers I saw from him indicated 36% Democratic history, 32-33% republican history, and the rest as toss ups. Not an unusual breakdown.

[anamandujano]

2. We can do it! Great link, thanks!

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. while numbers are good, we are 63% of 2012 total EV

[reasonabletexan]

11. Not right, I don't believe

Top 15 counties statewide total EV and absentee in 2012: 3,407,497

Top 15 counties statewide first 9 days total EV and absentee in 2016: 3,311,159.

We pass the old total today. Maybe I misunderstood your point.

[MyNameIsKhan]

13. I had VBM included in the number... but most likely we will move up

[Xipe Totec]

5. I'm in Hidalgo County, which is 30% voted

This county is 90% Hispanic, and 10% Anglo.

Regrettably, there's hardly any African-American presence here, but that will also come in due time.

This is the bluest part of Texas by far. The Southernmost tip of Texas. What was at one time, and for a brief glorious moment, The Republic of the Rio Grande.

[Gothmog]

7. I grew up in Hidalgo County

[Xipe Totec]

12. Listos, montados, y armados! nt

[reasonabletexan]

9. Great friends in McAllen and Edinburg

Your results this year are excellent! Keep it up, my friends!

[Gothmog]

15. Through yesterday Hidalgo is within 2,000 votes of equaling its 2012 early in person vote

https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/

[Gothmog]

6. This chart is updated daily and is very interesting

This chart shows the daily cumulative vote totals of the early vote in several counties. https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/ Through yesterday's vote, one county has already exceeded the 2012 vote and several more will exceed that total with today's vote

[reasonabletexan]

10. My only gripe with the trib's charts

Is that they are EV only. Harris County has already broken its record for absentee (which already reflects almost 4
% of our registered voters).

[Gothmog]

14. For total EV and VBM, you have to go to the Sec. of State website.

I like the trend lines of the Tribune poll because it is impossible to compare vote by mail numbers. Due in part to the Texas voter id law, the Texas Democratic Party started in 2014 to push vote by mail. Prior to 2014, the GOP beat the Democrats by a huge margin (ten to one some counties) on vote by mail. In the first mailing for VBM in December of 2013, the cost per applicant was around $.78 per applicant and by the end of 2014 the TDP got the cost down to $0.06 per applicant (congrats to Glen Maxey for this feat). In 2014, we pulled closed to the GOP numbers and in 2016 Harris County had more vote by mail applications than the Harris County GOP. We can not compare VBM for Democrats prior to 2014.

[reasonabletexan]

16. I put them all together because they are "early"

With the understanding that the trend lines are definitely in our favor, I like including them.

BTW, it is good to see everyone again. I moved law firms and lost all my old DU information. Had to re-register. My old screen name was thevoiceofreason

[Gothmog]

17. I am helping run voter protection statewide

If you are interested let me know. You can get CLE credit for the voter protection course from Battleground

[reasonabletexan]

18. Is it online?

Link?

[Gothmog]

19. Try this

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScZAiZj4lLiXPvRHlklQ8ULmxE0Sb03-B-W_CKQ_kwZl-NGxw/viewform

[Avalux]

8. Your post gives me goosebumps!

Wouldn't it be something if there is such a turnout that Hillary wins Texas....I'd be so happy! We've been working it a long time.