fivethirtyeight just updated their election forcast: Clinton 68,9 % - Trump 31 %

[factfinder_77]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Farmgirl1961]

1. Not sure why this is news

Lately, every time I go over to fivethirtyeight I get a little depressed. I'm not going to look for awhile. Maybe after the presser conference....

[misterhighwasted]

12. There are a few more accurate polls then 538.

Silver lost my loyalty a while ago & sent me in search of more serious polling.

[MFM008]

2. I'm finished with polls

Everyone's polls.
I voted.

[Dem2]

3. Yes, it shows Hillary with good polls in CO, NM & NV, so the assclown LOWERED the odds 0.4%

His model is fucked up.

[misterhighwasted]

10. I call bull on 538's forcast. Here's Benchmark & why they are more precise.

http://benchmark.shareblue.com/

Assembles their polls from much better data.

"Benchmark Politics is the only predictive model to include county-level demographic, economic, and polling data to make accurate predictions about national elections. Benchmark was the most accurate forecaster of the 2016 Democratic primaries. The probability bar above uses our proprietary model to predict the national race. The map below provides state and county spreads."


Probability of winning the election:

CLINTON 87%

Trump 13%

SENATE
DEMS 51

Rpubs 49

ELECTORAL VOTES

ClLINTON 328

Trump. 210

[regnaD kciN]

30. Benchmark may have some good modeling…

…but I have a hard time considering an organization titled "ShareBlue" to have an impartial agenda.

[misterhighwasted]

36. Shareblue? I have no idea why its worthy of snark.

Its predictability measures are more in depth than most I've yet to see.

They are no lightweights in the political realm & you certainly can use whichever you choose but i'll stick with Benchmark.

Shareblue is about as fair a site as I've seen.
Don't know why you have an issue with it but its your issue I guess.

[ScienceIsGood]

28. Assclown? Seriously? You think he is totally clueless about polling? n/t

[Dem2]

42. He seems a little too conservative this cycle

Explain this:



Hillary performing as expected in MO, yet her chances dropped 1.4%...

[ScienceIsGood]

53. Well, maybe "I disagree with his model this election", but "assclown" is silly. He knows his shit.

[Dem2]

54. I like inflammatory language, that's why I post on this political website

So,

[ScienceIsGood]

55. OK, carry on. I would suggest calling him a "Hack, Loser, Clueless, Etc" if it makes you feel better

[Dem2]

56. I've always had an affinity for "assclown"

[ScienceIsGood]

57. Asswipe and shitforbrains is good also. n/t

[es35]

4. Will this herald the return of socialism?

Now that the world is watching big money buy an election against the wishes of the people this may herald the return of socialism to the USA and other democracies that are suppressing it.

[Rex]

37. Well we saw what a big hit Bernie Sanders was once he got into the public spotlight.

People are tired of greed or to say it another way, the mega greedy are running out of things to steal-appropriate trough vulture capitalism.

[obamanut2012]

5. lolz

You again.

[Democat]

8. Look at the first two posters in this thread

I see double vision.

[JI7]

9. yup

[obamanut2012]

43. yup

[Democat]

7. factfinder_77 and Farmgirl1961 posting together in a concern thread

The only thing missing from this thread is vadermike.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. ...

[Farmgirl1961]

21. Yep - posting in a concern thread

My guess is that we're all concerned about this election, otherwise we wouldn't be part of the DU community. I will say it out loud:

I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THIS ELECTION.
I am concerned about all the hate spewing forth.
I am concerned about the two Iowa police officers that were murdered in cold blood.
I am concerned about what about the great divide in our great county.
I am concerned that whatever happens next Thursday, this election has given a great voice to the Alt-Right movement.
I am really concerned about this country that I love dearly.

If you want to call me a concern troll Democat, please be my guest.

[heaven05]

33. I am concerned also

NOTHING is wrong with your concerns. There is plenty of reasons to be concerned pre-post election. Too many sick people out there with weapons that cause mass misery and pain.

[obamanut2012]

44. hahahahaha

I thought the same thing!

[Demsrule86]

45. Factfinder is a so concerned he has posted at least four bad polls...and other negative stuff...

[bigdarryl]

11. Why does DU site always posting 538 stuff but not Sam Wang

Who.has.the prediction in the 90's he's just.as credible

[RAFisher]

20. The converse is true for the Senate. 538 gives better numbers for the Dems than Wang.

[bigdarryl]

25. Where did you hear that?

He was on the money on the 2012 Presidential election

[helpisontheway]

14. Trump is surging

He has the momentum according to Nate. 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

[Adrahil]

17. No.....

Just yesterday he remarked that he thinks folks who think Trump will continue to gain in the polls have no real reason to believe that.

Silver is an honest broker. So is Enten.

[Demsrule86]

46. Bullshit. that is all.

I see nothing that indicates Trump is surging.

[TheLibIn615]

15. It updates multiple times per day. How is this newsworthy?

[redstateblues]

16. Nate always hedges his bets. No matter what happens he wants to say he was right.

[Red State Prisoner]

18. Didn't he have an article last week explaining why 538 tended to a be a bit more bullish?

He's openly admitted that his model is more conservative in its projections that most.

[factfinder_77]

23. yes: this one

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

[radius777]

24. 538 is too volatile, not stable like PEC/Wang, Benchmark, Upshot

and whose numbers don't jump around like a ping pong ball with every poll, because they rely more heavily on demographic trends and other fundamentals, thus (imo) are more stable.

538 went from giving her 95% odds after the convention, to 54% odds before the 1st debate, to back up to 90% two weeks ago, back down now to 68.9%.

That's not steady, true odds don't bounce around like that, imo.

The prediction markets have also been relatively steady, averaging in the mid 70s or so. She has lost a good 10 points from the Comeygate bullshit since last Friday, but she was at a high (of around 83) due to having a great October and Trump melting down, and she was probably due for a regression to the mean anyway. Currently she's at 72.

[vadermike]

26. I'm

Starting to worry this may be like 2000 A real nail biter .. NH poll coming tmmrw showing trump up VA poll showing trump up Something is happening and we can't ignore it

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. "NH poll coming tmmrw showing trump up."

You saw it?

[vadermike]

29. Did

U read the du thread ? A reporter on a Twitter account said they have it ready for tmmrw and media will cover it trump is gonna lead in one NH poll Not sure about the other it's scary as shit

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Where is the link ?

[book_worm]

35. Oh brother. So one poll has Trump up and that means all the other polls are wrong

people around here need to get a grip. I wonder who the pollster is--that will tell you a lot.

[Demsrule86]

50. Not to me... but then I look at the electoral college and ignore the 'concerned'

[obamanut2012]

47. trump isn't up in VA, and never will be

[NCTraveler]

32. Solid position!!! Nt

[book_worm]

34. Another positive post from you.

[Rex]

38. Wow, she has a huge commanding lead.

31%

[factfinder_77]

48. 538 now gives us a better chance of winning the Senate than the Presidency

[sunonmars]

49. don't forget this only works so far, once crossover and unknowns get in the way

They are really guessing like everyone else.....

Its herding and hedge your bets time with these guys.....

They got Silver over to do the UK elections this year and he missed it by a mile. I tend believe he got lucky once and is frankly overrated.

[doc03]

51. Look at those Hillary and Trump lines below how they have changed since

that f---g Comey got involved. I don't like the trend there it shows too steep a drop for me.

[regnaD kciN]

52. When in danger, when in doubt…

…run in circles, scream and shout.

[MyNameIsKhan]

58. Based on all the rouge polls coming tomorrow and day after, I guess it may go down to low 60's

Nate Sliver underestimated Trump support during Primary, now he is overestimating...

I find NYT Upshot most balanced model.