Regarding that Virginia Poll giving Trump a 3-pt lead...

[book_worm]

It was conducted from Oct 26-30 and from the same time frame three other polls have HRC up:

Washington Post (conducted 10/27-10/30) has her leading 51-45.
Remington (A GOP pollster) polled 1106 people on 10/30 and found HRC leading 47-43
Emerson (another pollster with a GOP bias) polled from October 28-30 and has HRC up 49-45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html

My suggestion is to not put too much into this Virginia poll that has Trump ahead and look at all the polls that were conducted from the same time period.

[Avalux]

1. Thank you for doing the research and for being a voice of reason.

I don't have the time to look into the full context of outlier polls and posts about them are quite popular here right now. They lack very little substance and it's annoying.

[LenaBaby61]

3. Regarding that Virginia Poll giving Trump a 3-pt lead...

An outlier for sure.

[OldManTarHeel]

4. Don't Post Here Often . .

Virginia is the last of our worries of the 5 big Blue states . .

I don't post here very often, but, 4 years back I assured those here that the Commonwealth would be Blue by evening's end. Don't fret on election night folks, I'm here in NoVA and our heavily Democratic poll numbers always come in late.

Yes, the polling numbers have narrowed, but, that is expected . .

We're going to win VA . . . and we're going to win NC. Folks in NC are sick of Gov. McCrory and his cronies, the HB2 bill that has chased away Corporations, The NCAA and many entertainers from visiting/performing in NC have a lot of folks upset.

President Obama gave a great speech in Chapel Hill today, then he went on to visit Charlotte and will stop in at Fayetteville. He will also return to the Tar Heel state this Friday. The GPOAT knows how to connect with folks there.

The NCGOP voter suppression efforts in Guilford County has a lot of folks motivated to vote . .

My one and only concern of the 5 big Blues is with Pennsylvania . .

[StevieM]

9. Great to have you posting with us!! I hope you come back more often!! (eom)

[LonePirate]

5. I don't think they polled anyone in the northern quarter of the state.

I doubt anyone can find more than a handful of Trump supporters in the DC suburbs in VA.

[Wounded Bear]

6. My rule regarding polls: Never worry too much about any single poll....

look at aggregates of polling like 538, and pay attention to trends.

A single poll with a 10+ point swing in a week, or even a month, is an outlier. It almost has to be.

[progressoid]

7. Also has a 4.6 % MOE.

That's a higher MOE than the other three you listed.

[DLCWIdem]

8. Thank you

Not only for the info but challenging the posters who post these polls.

[StevieM]

10. Thanks for that info!! I was nervous about that poll.

Comey and Chaffetz have violated the Hatch Act and it has many of us worried about how much damage they have done.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. We never should have taken Virginia for granted

Regardless of where the polling stands now. Too many self identified conservatives in that state. When that number is in the high 30s you can't pull off the gas merely due to favorable polls in the short term.