Yuge turnout in Clark County today

[RandySF]

User Actions
Following

Jon Ralston
?@RalstonReports
Nearly 34,000 people had voted in Clark County by 6 PM. Going to be one of highest turnout days yet.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794347762418614272

[geek tragedy]

1. Thank goodness for Nevada, now that NH is starting to flake out on us.

So long as the other blue wall states (WI PA MI VA CO) hold up, Hillary is locked into 274 EVs.

[blue-wave]

4. I don't believe for a moment

that NH is flaking out on us. I read earlier that it's still close and within the margin of error. The media is playing us all and keeping us on the edge of our seats, again.

[geek tragedy]

5. Her lead there is completely gone. Evaporated.

4 polls from NH today. None with her ahead--tie, tie, Trump +1, Trump +5.

We have 274 EVs in non-toss up states. Cutting it close.

[blue-wave]

9. But you gotta dig deeper

when it comes to these polls. Per 538, three of the four polling organizations have a bias that leans toward republicans. Two of these are the Trump +1 and Trump +5 and one tie. The other tie leans democratic.

Now, I'm no expert, but just tonight I was researching the Latino turnout from 2012 and comparing it to the surge in Latino registered voters this election. In New Hampshire alone, it is predicted that there are 30,000-40,000 more registered Latino voters in 2016 than 2012. Latinos are one of, if not the, most motivated groups this election. Donald has mercilessly attacked them. They are also historically one of the most under-polled groups.

Obama won New Hampshire by 5% or roughly 50,000 votes in 2012. So the worst case poll above, with Donald ahead 5% has us down by about 50,000.

Now, let's factor in the republican women who are outraged/horrified at someone like Donald becoming president. In early voting republicans are breaking for Hillary more than in past elections. And yes, all the republican leaning men who are disgusted by his behavior.

Again, I'm no expert, but my research is telling me not to overreact. It has tightened, it will be close, which I don't like, but I think we are in better shape than the polling suggests.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Nominated for this year's "Using a Positive to Introduce a Negative Award"

This post will be a strong contender!

Congratulations.

[geek tragedy]

7. Being serious. NV means he has no path.

NV is a pretty safe bet. NH is a pure toss up.

[vadermike]

2. Good news

Altho I think we will prevail in NH Rasmussen NH and I think iPsos had her up by a point or two there today so that can't be bad

[rollin74]

3. interesting webcast Q&A by Jon Ralston on Nevada early voting data

for those who haven't seen it
(quite positive for HRC despite sketchy polling recently)

[LibraLiz1973]

8. I voted in CC today

It was a phenomenal experience. Quick and easy. All 4 members of my family were in and out (at different times) and we all gave it a solid thumbs up. I was behind a woman who was voting and I grinned when I saw her hit Clinton's name.

(I swear I wasn't peeking- it was right there in my face)

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Every area should make early voting as easy and positive as Clark County

It is everything you described. And yes, I recognized the ability to see somebody else's screen. The print is large and I remember it happening once or twice over the years.

[LibraLiz1973]

11. This was my first CC experience

Prior to this I was in the Philadelphia burbs. That was always fine, but a drag and definitely not high tech. I like that at the CC location I went to had a printed receipt so I could confirm my vote. I was in and out lightning quick. Then we took my nephews gf to vote just before 8 and she didn't even have to wait one minute. I also have to say the election workers at that location (Blue Diamond in the Enterprise area) were amazing. Friendly and warm, and so helpful.

Loved it.

The DMV here might be Satan's waiting room, but where voting is concerned everything is on point.