2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSam Wang: If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.
As of November 4, 9:07AM EDT:Snapshot (199 state polls): Clinton 311, Trump 227 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +2.6%RSS
Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98%, Bayesian >99%
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/04/sound-bites-and-bug-bites/
Va Lefty
(6,252 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)it don't come to that!
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)I like this bet!
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I'm sick of the FBI and the news media trying like hell to get orange hitler elected next week.
FreeStateDemocrat
(2,654 posts)PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)In some places they like to eat bugs...
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-06-16-bug-food_x.htm
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)He currently has the probability of a Clinton victory at 98% (random drift) or > 99% (Bayesian). Should Trump win, he's going to have a hard if not impossible time rebuilding his credibility, or that of his organization, in the future.
Charlotte Little
(658 posts)PEC makes no money for Sam. He's not in it for monetary gain. And reality is - Trump can win. That's just the reality. The chances are very small according to the PEC model, but it could happen.
Sam and PEC will survive this election. And I'm fairly confident that Sam won't be eating any bug anytime soon. But I'm also a realist. GOTV!
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)
Wang is standing by it in his commentary today. He also says that the only real question at this point is who will control the Senate.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98%, Bayesian >99%
Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.5%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 70%
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)brooklynite
(94,592 posts)yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)demosincebirth
(12,540 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)There's a whole meal.