2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum5 A-rated National polls just posted H+1, +2, +4, +5, +8
Edit - the dipshit at 538 keypunched wrong - numbers fixed. Yes, they put in that +8 Ipsos poll that I posted yesterday.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,855 posts)If the margins are "weighted" by the number of LV's, it's an average of over 4%.
Chasing Dreams
(415 posts)As I said last night, look at the real turnout data from Nevada, Florida, Texas, and Arizona. My prediction is that the LANDSLIDE will happen:
Clinton 50
Asshole 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2
Others 1
Hillary 350+ EVs
52 D Senate seats
Within 15 of House majority
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)I've read several times in several places that the polls should be averaged for the most accurate result especially when the range is large and it is (1 to 7 points).
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)The +7 appears to be yesterday's version. Today's release seems to be back to +5 (although the margin is, bizarrely, shown as +4 in the chart, 44-39=5).
Drop the first Ipsos and correct the second one
still a good set of results!
LAS14
(13,783 posts)538 has keypunch issues. Also, that Ipsos +8 poll I posted yesterday was finally just added - explains 2 Ipsos polls.
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)yet HRC leads in all of them.
Obama for the most part outperformed the polls four years ago. I suspect HRC will do the same.