The Nevada bonus is back - Princeton

[flamingdem]

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/the-nevada-bonus-is-back/#more-18559

Sam Wang:

Two states are hard to poll accurately, probably because they have high rates of migration: Alaska and Nevada. In addition, Nevada has a high Hispanic population, which votes heavily Democratic. Based on early voting, it looks like 2016 will be a repeat of 2010 and 2012, in which Democrats outperformed Nevada polls by 10 and 3 percentage points, respectively.

In 2010, poll medians missed the victory of Senator Harry Reid (D) over Sharron Angle (R) by nearly 10 percentage points. In 2012, President Obama led Mitt Romney in early voting by 7.6% and ended up winning the state by 6.7%, more than his polling lead of 4%.

In 2016, as the Votemaster says, early voting is favoring Hillary Clinton nationwide. And in Nevada, where early voting ended on Friday, Clinton has outperformed President Obama. If we were to add a 3-point bonus to current Nevada polling medians, which are Clinton +1% and in the crucial Senate race, Cortez Masto (D) +3.0%, it appears highly likely that both of those races will go Democratic.

That would bring the Senate Democratic/Independent total to a minimum of 47 seats (for easy reference, the RCP counter is here). In Pennsylvania, add McGinty, who is at +3.0%, to get 48 seats. To retain control, Republicans will need to hold Democrats to winning only one of the following five races: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. That is an uphill climb for them.

[CrispyQ]

1. Here's the link to the RCP senate map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/2016_elections_senate_map.html

[flamingdem]

2. thanks!

[ffr]

3. Jon Ralston emphasizes EV stats more than polls. He predicted Harry Reid's 2010 re-election.

When others doubted him.

We still have work to do though. It ain't over until every last democrat who can vote does so.